Category: MLB

Selling High- Jose Fernandez

Miami starting pitcher Jose Fernandez is a twenty year old force of nature but it’s selling time for fantasy owners.

Analysis: Through two starts Fernandez has posted a 0.82 ERA in 11.0 innings pitched with 13 strikeouts and allowing just 5 hits and 3 walks. Fernandez is just twenty but he has elite tier stuff. His fastball averages 94.8 MPH thus far and he also has a plus slider and a solid curve and change. But now we must consider what he’s up against.

Over the last ten years only four pitchers aged twenty or younger have pitched over 130 innings. Of those four pitchers only King Felix recorded an xFIP under 4.25. We must also consider what Jose has done in the minors. He hasn’t pitched in anything above Advanced-A ball which he did last year for 55 innings. He only pitched 134 innings in 2012 and he shouldn’t be pushed much beyond 150 in 2013 if he stays healthy. Miami will be awful this year and he is the future so there is no reason to send him out there thirty plus times.

Fernandez is available in 20-30% of fantasy leagues. If you have him or can pick him up it’s selling time. There is always one owner in every league who falls in love with the idea of what a guy like Fernandez can do as opposed to the reality of the facts.

Last Call On Jean Segura

Jean Segura is the 11th rated roto shortstop so far this year and there is room for improvement.

Analysis: Segura’s value thus far is heavily influenced by his .458 batting average which is obviously unsustainable. But keep in mind that he hit .304 in Double-A last year between the Angels and the Brewers. His batting average will be a plus this year especially considering his strikeout rate has been low throughout his minor league and major league career.

A huge fantasy strength for Segura is his legs yet he has not stolen a base yet this year. He stole 37 bags last year in 102 Double-A games and expect over 20 stolen bases this year if he can stay healthy. He does have some pop but the home runs and RBI won’t be anything special in 2013. If he can find his way into the two-spot in the Brewers’ batting order his run total could be another fantasy asset.

Jean Segura is available in 35-70% of fantasy leagues which is surprising considering the lack of depth at shortstop year to year in fantasy baseball.

It’s Not Time To Bail

Alfonso Soriano is having yet another below average April and many fantasy owners are dropping the slugger in their leagues.

Analysis: Soriano had zero home runs in the month of April last year… he ended up with 32 home runs which was fourteenth most in all of baseball. This year through seven games Soriano is again without a home run and also has zero RBI. I understand that he’s now thirty-seven years old but he is a must own regardless of age or a slump. He’s a power bat with a good track record hitting cleanup on a big league team… you’d have to be nuts to drop him from your fantasy squad right now.

Yet plenty of people are bailing on Alfonso Soriano just one week into the season. He’s available in 5-30% of fantasy leagues so grab him now before he goes on one of his streaks. The only valid concern with Soriano at this point is his strikeout rate. If it’s still over 30% by the end of May it might not be his year but are you willing to take that chance by bailing on him so early?

Under The Radar- Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko is five games into his career as a San Diego Padre and his play is as advertised.

Analysis: Gyorko hit 30 home runs last year between Triple-A and Double-A with a slugging percentage north of .500. He’s now twenty-four years old playing on a team that needs all the power bats it can get. Through his first five games Gyorko has three doubles, five hits, three RBI and two runs. He’s played two games at second base and three at third so he is on his way to multiple position eligibility. Chase Headley will eventually be back at third base and Gyorko should be the full time second baseman for the Padres.

Gyorko will have the month of April and possibly May to prove his bat is big league ready which should not be much of a problem. He’s available in over sixty percent of fantasy leagues but his stock is rising. Gyorko is a fine alternative for those counting on other low profile second basemen like a Brian Roberts. Roberts could only make it two full games and change this season without an injury… shattering his previous records.

Good Start For Nicasio

Juan Nicasio tallied his first win of the season Wednesday against the Brewers.

Analysis: Nicasio lasted 6.0 innings, giving up two earned runs and seven hits. Nicasio only struck out two batters Wednesday but expect more going forward. In his two previous big league seasons Nicasio has put up a 7.77 K/9 rate with a solid mid-90s fastball and a decent slider. Although his ERA has not been good in his two major league seasons his xFIP has been under 4.00 each year.

Obviously the biggest fantasy drawback is that he pitches at Coors Field for a living although it is interesting that his career ERA at home is significantly lower than it is on the road. The main focus for fantasy owners should be Nicasio’s walk rate. If he can limit his baserunners this year he will be more than a NL-only fantasy option.

He’s available in 99.9% of fantasy leagues but if the Rockies keep scoring in bunches it might not matter what kind of WHIP he posts this year. If he keeps pitching well he’ll be a steal or a good sell high option down the road.