Category: MLB

Selling High- Nate McLouth

Nate McLouth notched his first home run of the year Saturday afternoon in Oakland.

Analysis: The thirty-one year old Baltimore outfielder is now hitting .319 this year. He has also recorded 7 stolen bases which rank second in all of baseball. It seems as though everything is going right for McLouth as his stock rises but there are concerns. McLouth is a career .249 hitter who has hit above .270 just once in his career(2008). His BABIP this year is 60 points above his career average so we should expect his batting average to dip sooner than later.

To McLouth’s credit he is walking at a higher clip and striking out less this year when compared to last year and even his career averages. Yes, McLouth will provide a solid amount of steals and runs going forward but we must also consider his injury history- he has not played in over 100 games in a season in over three years. It really is a mixed bag with McLouth but as it stands now he is available in 70% of leagues nationwide. Just don’t be surprised when his batting average dips and his run production takes a hit because he’ll be hitting further down in the Baltimore batting order.

Bartolo Watch

Bartolo Colon recorded his third win of the season Tuesday against the Boston Red Sox.

Analysis: Bartolo Colon has made four starts and has pitched 26.0 innings this year yet he has only walked one batter… one batter! That is great for the WHIP in roto leagues and he’s sporting a 0.92 WHIP this year(1.21 in 2012). His 0.35 BB/9 should not come as a surprise, he posted a 1.36 BB/9 mark last year over 150 plus innings.

Colon does have a 5.88 K/9 rate this year but you’re not picking him up for his strikeouts. The wins are hard to project as well but picking up Colon means having an innings eater in roto leagues that can help your ratios. His ERA this year is 2.42 with a 2.82 FIP while last year he sported a 3.43 ERA with a 3.82 FIP. His ERA will bump up some considering his strand rate is 8% above his career average thus far this year. Regardless, his ERA and WHIP seem stable enough to provide value yet he’s only owned in 2-35% of fantasy leagues. He’s pitching in a great park and locating his fastball… what more do you want from a lower tier fantasy starter?

Sticking With Adam Dunn?

Adam Dunn is struggling as much as anyone in baseball over the past few weeks and now is the perfect time to pick him up off the wire.

Analysis: Adam Dunn is struggling to the tune of a .098 batting average. His strikeout rate in on par with his past few erratic seasons, however, his walk rate is down 10% this year through sixteen games. Obviously Dunn’s batting average will hurt in roto leagues… he is a career .239 hitter, but in points leagues and deeper roto leagues Dunn’s power can be quite valuable. He hit 41 home runs last year and drove in 96 runs. Despite his early season struggles he is still projected to hit 25-30 home runs this year.

Dunn is available in about 50% of fantasy leagues for two simple reasons- his walk rate is down and his BABIP is down .170 points from his career average and down .130 points from last year. His dreadful BABIP is unsustainable and his batting average will rise. Dunn is getting every chance to succeed because he’s still hitting in the heart of the White Sox batting order. We also cannot forget that Dunn has went on awful stretches in the past and his power always seems to be there for you by season’s end.

Buying Low- Pedro Alvarez

Pedro Alvarez recorded his first home run of the season Thursday against the Atlanta Braves. He is currently hitting .104 this season with a .204 OBP.

Analysis: Pedro Alvarez is already available in half of fantasy leagues due to his poor start. This is just another example of impatient fantasy owners making mistakes early on. Alvarez hit 30 home runs with 85 RBI in 2012. This year he isn’t seeing many fastballs, very similar to what Ryan Howard had to endure a few years ago. Alvarez will pull through and when his power resurfaces expect home runs in bunches.

I understand that many owners are concerned with his slow start but history is on his side. At this point last season Alvarez only had 2 home runs and 2 RBI to go along with a .107 batting average. Also at this point last season Alvarez was available in over 95% of leagues and he finished as the 16th rated roto third baseman and 22nd in all of baseball with 30 bombs. Just like Alfonso Soriano you have to be patient with him.

Placido Polanco and Josh Donaldson are fine options in deeper leagues at third but not at the expense of Alvarez.

Deep League Help- Pena

Chris Carter isn’t the only power hitter on the Astros making some noise early on. Carlos Pena has been splitting time between first base and DH and his game seems to be back on track.

Analysis: It is good to see Chris Carter finally get some love but it did take over two weeks into the season for it to manifest. He’s only available in about 50% of leagues which is still a surprise since he could/should get to 30 home runs this year. Remember, hit he 16 bombs in just 67 games last year with Oakland.

As for Carlos Pena, well… he has kind of faded in recent years and some of it has to do with his BABIP. Pena’s career BABIP is .277 but he’s only averaged .251 over the last three years in Tampa and Chicago. His power is still there, he’s averaged exactly 25 home runs from 2010-2012. But the solid power numbers don’t mean much with a batting average well below the Mendoza Line. Flash forward to 2013 and Pena’s BABIP is up and with it his batting average. Pena has homered in consecutive days and has 9 runs in 15 games this year. He’s available in 90-99% of leagues and should have DH eligibility soon.