Category: MLB

Buying Low- Gavin Floyd

Gavin Floyd allowed four earned runs against the New York Yankees Sunday in 5.1 innings of work.

Analysis: While it was not Gavin Floyd’s best performance, he has been pitching well as of late. In his two starts prior to the Yankee beating, Floyd’s line was- 2 wins, 0 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched with 13 strikeouts. We know that Floyd has never been a low ERA type of starter but his 3.92 xFIP does indicate that his 4.91 ERA is much too high.

What Floyd does offer is strikeouts and plenty of them. Floyd’s 88 K’s are thirty-fifth in all of baseball and his 1.32 WHIP is good for fifty-eighth in the bigs this year. His 3.54 K/BB rate is better than Jordan Zimmerman, Mat Latos, Gio Gonzalez and David Price’s K/BB rate. If Gavin can keep the ball in the park he is one deadly lower tier fantasy starter. He doesn’t walk hitters, he strikes out 8.5 batters per nine and his solid WHIP is near his career average. Floyd is available in about half of fantasy leagues and he definitely makes a great buy low option at this point in the season. There are tons of injuries out there and making smart decisions while some of your studs heal is imperative.

Deep League Help- Tyler Colvin

Tyler Colvin is loving life in Colorado as he continues to mash his way onto many fantasy rosters.

Analysis: Tyler Colvin is slugging .759 at home this year, so we might as well call him Carlos Gonzalez Jr. In fact, seven of Colvin’s eight home runs were hit at Coors Field. Even though he only slugs .384 away from home, his average away from Coors Field is a respectable .274.

Colvin isn’t going to walk much and he does strike out a ton but 30 RBI in 57 games and a .306 batting average is hard to come by on the wire. Keep in mind that Colvin has first base position eligibility in addition to his time in the outfield. He’s available in over ninety percent of leagues and in the deeper ones he is almost certainly a useful commodity. Colvin’s BABIP is inflated so his average will drop but he should continue to hit bomb after bomb at Coors Field along with CarGo and Dexter Fowler. Although Colvin is competing with numerous Colorado players for at-bats, he remains a better fantasy option than Tyler Moore and Seth Smith.

Under The Radar- Joe Blanton

Joe Blanton has pitched well over the past two weeks and certainly merits a look in deeper leagues.

Analysis: Joe Blanton’s ERA may be 4.87 but it doesn’t tell the complete story. Blanton’s xFIP is 3.43 this year, well below his career average. His HR/FB rate is up and his LOB% is down a bit, but these are things that will work themselves out by season’s end. Blanton is pitching deep into games and striking out 7.5 batters per nine innings pitched. His velocity is fine and his walk rate is just 1.19BB/9IP, good for second best in all of baseball.

I can see why the 4.87 ERA may scare away casual fantasy owners but the hardcore ones in deeper leagues have to love Joe Blanton. His strikeout rate and walk rate are solid and as soon as his HR/FB rate(seventh worst in MLB) comes back down to earth he will be a hot waiver wire commodity. Blanton is available in tons of leagues and you might as well grab him up now before the hype machine works its magic. Blanton’s 1.24 WHIP is better than David Price, CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, so why isn’t he a bigger deal?

Last Call On Will Middlebrooks

With Kevin Youkilis officially out of the picture now with the Chicago White Sox, the future looks bright for the emerging Will Middlebrooks.

Analysis: Will Middlebrooks projects as a power bat for quite some time. He hit 27 HR in the Red Sox organization last year in just 129 games as a twenty-two year old. He also stole twelve bags last year so he can contribute in all five roto categories. Thus far this year Middlebrooks is hitting .326, slugging .583 with nine bombs and 34 RBI in just 41 games. He will not sustain this pace the rest of the year but in the future he will be an elite RBI machine.

He finds himself in a great situation, he has plenty of protection in a deep Boston batting order. There also isn’t too much pressure on the rookie yet and he will benefit from that. He does need to walk a bit more and hit sliders better but he is the real deal. Middlebrooks still hasn’t found a steady spot in the Red Sox order but RBI opportunities abound in that lineup, so no worries. Middlebrooks is available in over forty percent of fantasy leagues, get him while you can.

Rajai Is On The Rise

Rajai Davis isn’t getting much love from fantasy owners this season yet he continues to put together another solid year.

Analysis: Rajai Davis has 16 SB, 24 R, 4 HR and is batting .272 thus far this year. The speedster stole thirty-four bags in just ninety-five games last year and the previous year saw Rajai hit the fifty steal mark. Davis is a career .272 hitter which is where his 2012 average is at the moment, so you cannot say he is an inconsistent ballplayer. Yes, his average was awful last year but his BABIP was also thirty points below his career average.

It also appears that Davis’ power is peaking. His isolated power of .175 is a career high this year, sixty-six points above his career average. In fact, he’s only one bomb away from his career high in home runs and we aren’t even at the All-Star break yet. It is absolutely baffling how the sixth leading base stealer in all of baseball is only owned in twenty percent of fantasy leagues. He’s a solid contact hitter who is having his best power year, yet he still gets no love. To put it in perspective- Rajai has more homers and stolen bases than Jose Reyes in 153 less at-bats.