Category: MLB

Selling High- Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin may have eight wins and has been Colorado’s most consistent starter this year but he is due for a drop in performance.

Analysis: Jhoulys Chacin is a solid four pitch pitcher with a plus slider and a plus curve. Chacin will develop into a respectable middle tier fantasy starter one day but not this year. Chacin’s ERA-FIP is -1.15 this year, fourth among all MLB pitchers. He may be sporting a sub three ERA but his FIP of 3.86 suggests his luck should run out. Chacin’s strand rate is over eighty percent, up seven percent over his career average and well above the league average. One must also be concerned that when his luck runs out his sub 8K/9 rate isn’t what you signed up for. Chacin sported a K/9 rate over nine each of his first two years in the bigs while this year it hovers just below eight. There is a ton to love about this righty but as well all know Coors Field isn’t the best place to pitch. His ERA at home is actually .64 lower than on the road and that will positively even out by season’s end.

Projection: You might as well sell Chacin at his current value unless you don’t mind a drop off in performance. His ERA in his remaining starts should be in the 3.8-4.0 range. Act accordingly.

Pujols Replacements?

With Albert Pujols on the disabled list for what appears to be for four to six weeks with a fractured left wrist, it’s time to start looking for fantasy replacements at first base.

Analysis: Whether you have depth at first to fill in for Pujols or not, this injury warrants a pickup. Todd Helton is still available in a few leagues nationwide and he should maintain your batting average in roto leagues while Pujols is out. If you are looking for a bit more power you may want to consider Ty Wigginton. Wigginton hits in a hitters paradise at Coors Field and has position eligibility at second and third base as well. One of the more risky options but an option none the less appears to be Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo. Trumbo’s stock has been falling since it appears that he may split some playing time with Russell Branyan but Trumbo is the better option for the Angels. Trumbo has hit twelve home runs on the year and is hitting .254 with room for improvement due to a low BABIP. If you can deal with a few less at bats for a guy with a .211 ISO then Trumbo isn’t so bad after all. There are plenty of options out there at first base, it’s just a matter of what your team needs while Pujols is out.

 

First Call On Dustin Ackley

The Seattle Mariners have called up second baseman Dustin Ackley from Triple A Tacoma.

Analysis: While I don’t expect Ackley to catch fire from the jump he does possess a solid set of tools. Ackley has a .418 OBP in sixty-five games with Tacoma this year. Ackley’s fifty-five walks is leading the Pacific Coast League and Ackley’s walk rate is at 16.9% to just a 14.2% strikeout rate. He obviously has a great eye and is a patient hitter but he is by no means a power hitter. Ackley has gap power and while playing at Safeco one shouldn’t expect much in terms of his home run total. Ackley’s 2011 9 HR, 7 SB, .300 BA line is solid and one might think that he may contribute in all five categories right away but he will be needing some time to adjust. For now expect a ton of doubles and a fair amount of walks, solid for points leagues or roto leagues that count OBP. It can’t hurt to take a chance on this guy but don’t expect anything elite from this rookie second baseman this year.

Projection: A .280 BA, 6 HR, 9 SB line would be a reasonable projection for Ackley if he starts for the rest of the season.

Buying Low- Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow may have allowed six or more runs in two of his last three outings but he’s still worthy of a spot on any fantasy roster.

Analysis: Yes, Morrow is getting lit up out there but he’s also put together some solid performances recently as well. In fact, two of his last four outings were more than solid- thirteen combined innings pitched with one earned run and striking out ten against the ChiSox and the Royals. He has been hit or miss and he isn’t in a division where he was going to post top of the rotation numbers but he is a reliable source of strikeouts and the man has been unlucky. Morrow’s 60.3 LOB% this year is eleven points below his career average and his ERA-FIP is 3.08, an astonishing .98 over the second unluckiest pitcher this year in John Lackey. The bottom line is Brandon Morrow isn’t an awful pitcher and it’s the perfect time to buy the right hander low. He’s still a strikeout machine and his fastball and slider are still plus pitches.

Projection: Morrow will continue to K ten batters per nine and expect his ERA to be just under four in his remaining starts.

Austin Jackson Is Surging

With four multi-hit games in his last four contests Austin Jackson is one hot fantasy outfielder.

Analysis: It has been a relatively disappointing year thus far for Austin Jackson but he is still putting up fantasy relevant numbers. Jackson’s ten stolen bases is good for eighteenth among major league outfielders and his thirty-three runs is good for twenty-sixth among big league outfielders. He is still producing even with a .258 batting average. It’s a bit strange that the youngster has an ISO over fifteen points higher this year even though in 2010 he was hitting about forty points higher than he is now. His power is starting to develop much to the surprise of some and he has double digit home run potential as early as next year. The surging Jackson is still available in over fifty percent of fantasy leagues so you may want to pick up the surging speedster before it’s too late. Jackson has also amassed the ninth most at bats this year among outfielders and with his recent streak his run and stolen base totals should become more than respectable by year’s end. He certainly is a hot and cold player but patience is paying off in this case.

Projection: Expect four to five bombs, fifteen to eighteen steals and fifty plus runs in Jackson’s remaining ninety games.