Category: MLB

Deep League Help- Mike Leake

After a disappointing start to the 2011 season Mike Leake is on fire and it’s official, he’s a fantasy force. Still available in ninety percent of leagues it’s time to pick the righty up before it’s too late.

Analysis: Mike Leake is now 3-0 is his last four starts while only allowing six runs in just 28 innings pitched. He’s never been much of a strikeout machine so a K/9 rate in the six to seven range is fine for him and that’s exactly what he is doing. Leake’s solid outings have been due, his FIP is 3.70 this year compared to a 4.06 ERA. Leake’s cutter is top notch but it has been his command and the late break of his slider that has been making the difference these last four starts. Although he doesn’t pitch in a pitcher friendly park he has the tools to overcome that and be a productive fantasy starter week in and week out. 2011 has been all the difference for Leake- his strikeouts are up, walks down and his WHIP stands at 1.29 as a result. He is prone to give up big innings from time to time but he’s too talented of a back of the rotation fantasy starter to pass up.

Projection: Expect an ERA around or just under four with a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range for the duration of the season. He has all the tools to succeed but how many innings will he pitch?

Last Call On Moustakas

Kansas City third baseman Mike Moustakas played his first major league game Friday and it’s last call on this hot commodity.

Analysis: Moustakas is already owned in nearly fifty percent of fantasy leagues nationwide and there is a reason why. This kid is as talented as they come. Moustakas hit 36 bombs in just 118 AA/AAA games last year and for a power hitter his strike out rates are low. He still is a bit impatient at the plate but the guy just mashes regardless. Within a month Moustakas should be a top eighteen fantasy third baseman with potential for much more. Moustakas’ batting average is a plus as well. Over the last two years in AA/AAA ball Moustakas has yet to hit under .285 while maintaining a manageable BABIP. We may see quite a few doubles from Moustakas starting out but do not be discouraged if the homers don’t come right away. He was hitting sixth Friday behind Billy Butler but it shouldn’t be long before he finds himself cleaning up or in the five spot.

Projection: A .280 batting average with about thirteen homers seems reasonable for the slugger.

Ichiro Is Fine

There has been a lot of press recently on how Ichiro has lost a step but it’s all propaganda.

Analysis: The main stream media wants you to think Ichiro isn’t Ichiro for some reason. However, all you have to do is look at the numbers and you’ll see Ichiro is still Ichiro, he’s just “sleeping” if you will. Ichiro’s BABIP is down over 75 points from his career average of .354. To add insult to injury, Ichiro has his lowest strikeout ratio(8.0 K%) since his rookie year in 2001(7.7 K%). Furthering the insult, Ichiro’s walk rate(7.4%) is his highest since 2002(9.3%). The media is making a huge deal that the outfielder is homerless through sixty-three games but Ichiro only hit six bombs last year. Not to make excuses but Safeco, next to Petco is the most pitcher friendly park in the bigs over the last five years. But you didn’t draft Ichiro for the power did you? It’s understandable to be frustrated with his batting average but he has been one unlucky guy this year. He’s putting the ball in play more than ever and he’s not getting rewarded. BABIP is a crazy thing, it can make Carlos Gonzalez look like a top ten pick(see my Febuary 20th article explaining that he wasn’t) and it can make Aaron Hill look just awful.

Projection: Ichiro is still on pace to steal 35-40 bags this year, that’s special when considering he’s hitting just .252. Expect four homers, twenty plus steals and a batting average over .300 in Ichiro’s remaining games.

Alex Rios Is Still Viable

Despite hitting just .199 this year and being benched often in the last week, Alex Rios is still a viable option for all fantasy squads.

Analysis: Yes, 2010 was a career year for Rios and to expect a repeat of his 2010 campaign this year was not expected. However, his career average over 162 games is a .277 BA with 17 home runs and 24 steals. He may only have four bombs and four swipes thus far this year but it does not warrant dropping the guy from your fantasy squad. Fantasy baseball is as much about patience as anything else. Rios is getting ready to explode and his numbers indicate that. His strikeouts are actually down from last year and his career average, his walk rate is at his career average, it’s just that his BABIP is just .205 while his career BABIP is .310. Rios is being dropped in many fantasy leagues across the country because of a lack of patience and when he explodes in the near future there will be many regrets. Rios may not reach a 20/20 season this year because it’s already June and he’s been unlucky but he’s a five category stud who should not be dropped from any fantasy squad.

Projection: Expect 12 homers, 14 stolen bases and a .275 batting average from Rios in his remaining ninety plus games.

Jeremy Hellickson Is Overrated

Jeremy Hellickson may have a 2.64 ERA this year with seven wins but there are some reasons for concern.

Analysis: The twenty-four year old is sporting a 2.64 ERA but keep in mind his FIP is 3.83 while his xFIP is sitting at 4.35. Hellickson’s fastaball velocity is down from last year in the bigs and his minor league average velocity. He’s walking 3.7 batters per nine while striking out a pedestrian 6.4 batters per nine. Hellickson’s 80% LOB rate is good for seventeenth among major league pitchers and his HR/FB rate is at 5.8%, good for eighteenth in the majors. Needless to say he has been one lucky pitcher this year. In keeper leagues, yes, he is a long term top of the rotation stud. However, this year we will be seeing a significant drop off in his performance sooner than later. Hellickson for a struggling ace and some depth on your fantasy squad is a trade you must consider before he loses value. Don’t get me wrong, staying with Hellickson isn’t a bad option at this point but he isn’t what his numbers are indicating. His strike out rates are no where near his minor league numbers and we cannot forget that he has pitched over 120 innings in a year just once in his professional career.

Projection: Hellickson’s ERA should inflate to about 3.5 by the end of the season which means you are getting a slightly better than a middle of the road pitcher the rest of the year. Act accordingly.