Category: MLB

Corey Patterson Is Back

Corey Patterson is enjoying a fine season thus far with Toronto. In Patterson’s last 137 games going back to last year he has 28 stolen bases and hit 12 home runs, that’s a power-speed combo that’s flying under the radar.

Analysis: I don’t want to speak too soon because Corey Patterson has an uncanny ability to flake out but he may have found his groove. His strike outs are down, his contact rate and ISO are both up and it appears that he is a valuable fantasy commodity. Patterson’s BABIP is forty points above his career average so don’t expect his current batting average of .291 to stick around but you just cannot ignore what he is doing in the speed department. Twenty-eight stolen bases in his last 137 games if good just by itself but when coupled with twelve bombs and seventy-three runs then you have a guy that should be owned in more than just forty percent of fantasy leagues. If you are looking for outfield depth in deeper leagues you need not look further than the often disappointing yet surprisingly solid Corey Patterson.

Projection: A .270 BA, 10 HR, 20 plus steals and about seventy runs should be there for you at the end of the season.

JP Arencibia Is Still Available

From Buster Posey to Ryan Doumit to Nick Hundley, there certainly are a lot of injuries to catchers right now. JP Arenicibia has been a top ten catcher all year and is still available in over forty percent of fantasy leagues nationwide.

Analysis: Regardless of league format, the fact that JP Arencibia is still available in fantasy leagues is absolutely shocking. We’re talking about a twenty-five year old that is third in the majors among catchers in home runs with eight, eighth in runs with eighteen and fifth in RBI with twenty-six. You just cannot ignore Arencibia’s power, he hit 32 homers in just 104 Triple A games last year. He is easily a top ten catcher right now and in the foreseeable future. Arencibia is currently on a five game hitting streak with four runs and two RBI in that span. You can no longer overlook this power hitting catcher in any fantasy format, period. He is a legit twenty homer a year player that seemingly no one wants to give any love to.

Projection: Expect 20 home runs with 50 runs and 75 RBI as Arencibia’s 2011 totals. His batting average is hovering in the .250 range now and it shouldn’t dip below .240 unless his strike out rate goes up significantly.

Danny Espinosa Has Arrived

With four home runs in his last six games it appears that Washington second baseman Danny Espinosa has arrived as a force in the fantasy world.

Analysis: Over the last two years in the minors Espinosa has hit 40 bombs and stolen 54 bases, now that’s a power-speed combination. Thus far this year Espinosa has 10 homers with 4 steals and as expected is batting in the low 200s. He’s actually rated as the eleventh best second baseman in roto leagues this year yet he’s owned in less than thirty percent of fantasy leagues. Obviously, Espinosa will not be able to sustain his current streak but in the long term he offers power and speed from a disappointing fantasy position this year. The only red flag in roto leagues will be the batting average. He’s hitting just .217 this year and he’s striking out twenty-five percent of the time. His batting average shouldn’t dip below what it is now but if you need batting average help in your league then you want to look elsewhere(Ryan Theriot). Espinosa ranks second among major league second baseman in homers with 10, second in RBI with 33 and fifth in SLG% at .456, where on the wire are you going to find this much power widely available at any other position?

Projection: By season’s end expect 25 HR, 80 RBI, 80 R, 10 plus SB and a .220 BA. He’s not yet a fantasy star but he’s on his way.

Deep League Help- Nick Blackburn

Nick Blackburn is under the radar right now and it’s time to pick this righty up before it’s too late.

Analysis: Nick Blackburn is in a great five game stretch. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or seven hits while pitching at least 6 1/3 innings in all five starts. He’s owned in less than ten percent of fantasy leagues nationwide yet he has been one of the five most valuable starting pitchers in the fantasy world since May 4th. Blackburn’s LOB% of 77.5 is slightly above his career average but his xFIP checks out at 3.84 while his ERA sits at 3.20. He is by no means a strikeout pitcher (career 4.3K/9) but he doesn’ walk many batters (2BB/9) either. His fastball is still his bread and butter but his command of his cutter has been the difference this year. I’m not saying Blackburn will keep the pace he is on now for the duration of the season but in deep leagues his ERA and WHIP should be more than solid especially pitching at Target Field.

Projection: Nick Blackburn will finish the 2011 season with twelve wins and an ERA under four for the first time in his career. In deep leagues he’s a bargain right now.

Erik Bedard Valuable When Healthy

Erik Bedard has some of the best stuff in baseball but he hasn’t started more than fifteen games in a year since 2007.

Analysis: Erik Bedard is 2-0 in his last four starts while never allowing more than two earned runs per start during that stretch. He’s also struck out 24 to only 6 walks in that four game span. Bedard’s fastball velcoity may be a notch below his career average and the velocity he was briefly thowing last year but his command has been pinpoint. He still has his wicked curveball but he hasn’t been throwing it as much as the past few years. It really seems like he’s finally pitching and not relying on his stuff quite as much. Safeco is a wonderful place to pitch in and he has significant value for the time being. He is a major health concern but you still need to pluck him off the wire and ride him until he lands on the disabled list. Bedard is still available in about eighty percent of fantasy leagues so act now and pick the lefty up.

Projection: Bedard will land on the disabled list and he will not be able to recover his form once he’s hit the DL- that is assured, but while he’s healthy you just cannot ignore his fantasy impact. Expect a sub 3.8 ERA with an 8K/9 line from Bedard until he gets banged up.