Category: MLB

Feliz to DL, who will close for Texas Rangers?

2010 Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz went on the 15-day DL with shoulder inflammation today, and the immediate question becomes, who replaces him as the closer?

Analysis: There seems to be three choices here; Darren O’Day and Pedro Strop, and Arthur Rhodes. Strop has a sensational line (1.68 ERA, .118 BAA), but a monstrous 1.50 WHIP. O’day’s numbers (2.84 ERA, .250 BAA, 1.58 WHIP) are worse.

Strop seems to be too loose with no runners on base, indicative of his 8th inning last night – 2 walks, a single, and a sacrifice fly. He’s still raw, but never discount a 96 mph fastball to close out the 9th inning.

O’Day has struggled so far this season. He has walked 4 in 6.1 innings, while he walked 12 all last season in 62 innings. His velocity is down a little bit, down from the low 90’s to the high 80’s, and that’s having an impact on his control. Maybe the adrenaline of the 9th inning will get that little extra “oomph” on O’Day’s fastball that made him so dominant last season.

Rhodes is the most experienced arm in the bullpen. He hasn’t started a game since 1997. He was an All-Star for the first time last season, and is probably the first choice to close. He’s got the mental toughness needed for the position, but is the softest thrower of the three.

Projection: Manager Ron Washington loves to play matchups. The best guess is that if there’s a save situation with 2 or more right-handed batters, he’ll go with Strop or O’Day. If there’s 2 or more left-handed batters, he’ll go to Rhodes. Either way, Feliz isn’t expected to miss more than the 2 weeks he’ll be on the DL. I wouldn’t expect any reliever to get more than 3 saves in that span, so it’s not worth picking up a middle reliever.

Is Pronk Back?

Travis Hafner is hitting .344 with 4 HR, 11 R and 10 RBI in just seventeen games this season. So is Pronk back or is this just a hot streak?

Analysis: Travis Hafner is walking less and striking out more than his career averages. Hafner is also putting up an unsustainable .415 BABIP and he’s swinging at 27.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, eight percent above his career average. We also have to consider that Hafner hasn’t had a year with 500 plate appearances or 20 home runs since 2007. It really is just a matter of time before the slugger ends up on the disabled list. You can ride the hot streak if you like but reality is going to catch up to him sooner than later. You cannot swing at junk all year, maintain an ungodly BABIP, walk less and strike out more and expect positive results by seasons end. If Hafner can stay healthy you’re still looking at a guy without position flexibility being a DH and a player that won’t reach thirty bombs or a .290 batting average.

Projection: The injury history concerns me the most but if you insist on not dealing Pronk than you should expect a .275 batting average, 20 home runs and 60 RBI at the end of the rainbow for you. He’s not going to stay healthy.

Buying Low- Austin Jackson

Austin Jackson is a solid outfield option in roto leagues but the hype and his misleading 2010 batting average due to an inflated BABIP has left many fantasy owners disappointed.

Analysis: It really was just a matter of time before Austin Jackson owners realized he wasn’t going to live up to his draft position this year but that doesn’t mean you have to outright drop the guy from your squad. 2011 is a completely different story for Jackson, he’s hitting .157 with a .222 BABIP. The most concerning stat is the 34.3% K rate, he’s striking out even more than last year. He’ll settle down soon enough, he’s not fighting for a job. When Jackson gets it going at the top of that Tigers’ order he will be scoring runs in bunches again and with it the stolen bases will be there. The batting average will be fine, but nothing to write home about. Fantasy baseball is about patience and Jackson is too good of a player in roto formats to be available in over fifty percent of leagues, so stay with him and start him when he heats up.

Projection: Austin Jackson will finish the season with 22-25 stolen bases, about 80 runs and a batting average in the middle of the pack. Maybe next year he’ll finally be drafted where he belongs.

Jonny Gomes- Trade Bait

Jonny Gomes may be second in baseball with six homers but we all know his hot streak will not last. It’s time to move the hot outfielder now before his value takes a huge hit(see Alexi Ogando 4/17).

Analysis: Jonny Gomes has never hit more than 21 home runs in season and as great of a hitter’s park as he is mashing in right now I highly doubt he’ll break his career high this year. Gomes’ HR/FB rate is at 23% this year over nine points above his career average of 14%. We also cannot ignore that Gomes is a career .247 hitter who is hitting just .240 this year. You wouldn’t think just six home runs would get just about every fantasy player excited but it still does. The fact is Gomes is a decent fantasy bench player and you can ride out his hot streak which won’t be more than two home runs over the next week or two. Intelligent fantasy baseball is knowing when to trade a hot player and when to keep a hot player. Selling Gomes right now is the smartest thing you can do since you most likely already picked him up.

Projection: Gomes won’t crack the .250 mark this year nor will he reach the 25 home run mark. What he will do is disappoint sooner than later.

Sam Fuld Going Forward

The relatively young Rays’ outfielder, Sam Fuld, is off to a terrific start but can he continue his performance going forward?

Analysis: Sam Fuld is second in the league in stolen bases with seven and he is hitting .341, so what is not to like? First off, he only has two stolen bases in his previous ninety-seven big league game so it is a cause for concern. Secondly, Fuld never hit the thirty stolen base mark in a year in his minor league career. Remember, David Wright last year got off to a hot start in the stolen base department but only ended up with nineteen. Fuld’s BABIP is also beyond inflated at .389. Fuld also never hit over .300 in his minor league career with the exception of High A ball back in 2007. Yes, he is a hot commodity coming off the wire these days and it is understandable if you just look at the surface stats but he will disappoint you sooner than later. This is another Alexi Ogando opportunity here where his value will NEVER be higher than it is right now. It’s time to package the flavor of the week in a trade and reap the rewards of intelligent fantasy baseball strategy.