Category: MLB

Alexi Ogando Now 2-0

Texas right hander Alexi Ogando pitched seven innings of shutout ball today against the Tigers in his second start of the season.

Analysis: Alexi Ogando is now 2-0 for the season and has pitched 13 innings allowing zero earned runs, striking out eight batters while only walking three. Ogando is primarily a two pitch pitcher with a plus mid nineties fastball and a slider/slurve. He really does have command of the strike zone right now but you just cannot ignore that he is a two pitch starting pitcher in a ball park that is a hitter’s park with sloppy mechanics. The run support will be there for Ogando as the Rangers have a stellar lineup top to bottom. However, the smart play here is picking Ogando up off the wire and packaging him in a trade. Ogando will not have a higher fantasy value then right now and it’s time to act. At some point he’s going to have to get command of his changeup to put up some consistent fantasy numbers and right now I don’t believe he has it in him. Don’t let the Rangers hot start or the first two outings fool you, Ogando will hurt you in end.

Projection: If you watch his mechanics… he’s all over the place, you can’t trust him. By the all-star break you can expect Ogando’s ERA to be around four so act now and package the flavor of the week.

Is Jose Tabata The Next Big Thing?

Jose Tabata is just ten games into the new season but he’s picking up where he left off in 2010…on fire, but is he the next power/speed fantasy stud.

Analysis: Last year was Drew Stubbs’ coming out party with 22 homers and 30 stolen bases and it just may be Jose Tabata’s this year. Tabata already has 2 bombs and 5 swipes while hitting well over .300 in ten games thus far this year. In fact if you average Tabata’s two year big league career over 162 games you get a .302 hitter who averages 9 home runs and 34 stolen bases. Tabata will easily get to the double digit home run mark this year and with how aggressive he is on the base paths he could hit 40 stolen bases. Tabata may not look like a burner but Rickey Henderson didn’t have the prototypical “burners” body either. Last year only BJ Upton and Carl Crawford hit double digit homers and stole 40 bags, that’s pretty good fantasy company and when you couple the power/speed threat with his ability to consistently make contact…you have a stud in the making. Tabata only K’s 13.9% of the time in the majors and his minor league K rates are in line with his big league numbers, you have to love this guy.

Projection: 10-13 home runs, 40 stolen bases and a batting average in the .290-.300 range is what Tabata is capable of this year and the fact that he isn’t owned in every fantasy league is criminal.

Derek Holland goes Dutch, pays for himself

The Texas Rangers’ Derek Holland turned in his second straight quality start Sunday, vaulting the Rangers to an 8-1 start and improving Holland’s record to 2-0. His Sunday line was 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, zero runs, and 6 strikeouts. For the season he’s gone 12 innings, allowed three runs and struck out 11. What’s most impressive is his reduced walk rate, which is 2.25/9 IP, down from his career average of 3.28, down a full walk every 9 innings.

Holland has always been a high-strikeout pitcher, averaging 7.5/9 IP for his 200+ innings of major league pitching. His minor league strikeout rate was 9.5/9 IP, so it’s no surprise his strikeouts have transitioned well to the major leagues.

He came into the 2011 season a wild-card on draft day, as he wasn’t announced as a starter until about a week before the season started. He went mostly undrafted, but is already paying returns for those who did pick him up.

Analysis: Holland throws too many pitches (215 through 12 innings), and what’s  dis-concerning is his in-game trends of how he reaches those high pitch counts . Here’s what I mean by that:

Against Seattle: 3 of 6 leadoff hitters reached, only one 1-2-3 inning

Against Baltimore: All five hits and 2 walks against came with two outs, only one 1-2-3 inning.

The Mariners and Orioles are not elite offensive teams, and Holland has gotten away with making mistakes. His next start is against the Yankees, which owns 13 runs, 20 hits, and 5 home runs in 12.1 career innings. He also is slated to pitch against CC Sabathia, who is 8-3 in his career against Texas.

However, Holland’s three starts after that come against Kansas City, Toronto, and Oakland, all of which are very favorable towards the Rangers’ southpaw.

Recommendation: Pick up Holland now and stash him on your bench for the Yankee game next Saturday. The Yankees have too many good, patient hitters who can annihilate Holland’s mistakes. It would not be surprising if he only lasted four or so innings. The following three starts you should absolutely start him, as the potential of three wins and 20 strikeouts is a strong possibility.

Manny to Cooperstown?

12 time all-star, Manny Ramirez retired Friday from the Tampa Bay Rays reportedly because he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. He elected not to serve the punishment of a 100-game suspension.

He proved himself to be one of the best playoff hitters of all-time. His 29 post-season homeruns and 78 RBIs are the most of any player in MLB history for either category. Manny Ramirez; a 12 time all-star, 2002 AL batting champ and 2004 World Series MVP, ends his colorful career with some incredible numbers.

14th all-time in HR (555)
below Reggie Jackson (563)
above Mike Schmidt (548)

18th all-time in RBI (1831)
two shy of tying Dave Winfield (1833) at 17th

9th all-time in Slugging %
between Mark McGwire and Joe DiMaggio

On top of being listed with such impressive names, these numbers certainly validate Manny for the Hall of Fame but will the two failed drug tests keep him out? The bottom line is that he failed PED tests which is more than enough to turn off the writers from electing him to Cooperstown. Thus, bringing an end to Manny’s career and legacy.

Kazmir To DL, E-Jax/Burnett Going Fast

The Angels placed Scott Kazmir on the 15 day disabled list earlier today with “tightness in the lower back.” This shouldn’t come as a surprise, Kazmir hasn’t put together a solid season since 2008 with Tampa.

Analysis: I wouldn’t consider outright dumping Scott Kazmir at this point, just put him on the disabled list and pick up a red hot pitcher off the wire. A few days ago I mentioned picking up Edwin Jackson and after his last outing with 13 strikeouts he going fast in every format. He already has a sub 2.00 ERA with 20 K’s and two wins in two starts. But there are two sides of Edwin Jackson, good E-Jax(2009) and bad E-Jax(2007) and it appears good E-Jax is with us right now. He’s throwing his slider more than ever this year but the biggest difference is with his command as he has only walked five batters in two starts, that’s pretty good for Jackson. Jackson’s ERA will come back up into the 3.8-4.1 range especially pitching in hitter’s paradise US Cellular Field but if his command is on point then his strikeouts, wins and WHIP will be the numbers that will help you the most in roto leagues. The other hot option isn’t necessarily a good one. AJ Burnett is pitching well for the Yanks but you cannot trust a guy who on any given night can give up seven earned runs. If he’s available on the wire you have to consider picking him up and packaging him in a trade. The only thing you can trust with AJ will be the win total he has by seasons end.