Category: MLB

Mike Stanton Brings The Lumber

After a historic .248 ISO as 20 year old, Mike Stanton is poised to bring the lumber in 2011 but what exactly should we expect?

Analysis: Mike Stanton hit 22 homers in just 100 big league games last year and he also hit 21 bombs in just 53 Double A games. That’s 43 homers combined as a 20 year old, nearly unheard of. His walk rate of 8.6% with the Marlins wasn’t as expected but it should be around the 12% mark this year which will help his run and stolen base totals. As long as his strikeout rate doesn’t go up from 34.3%, Stanton will hit 35 home runs rather easily. Like many power hitters he’s not going to give you any batting average help in roto leagues but a handful of steals should help ease a batting average that should fall in the .260-.270 range. Stanton is a high reward outfielder with his seemingly limitless home run power so grabbing him over guys like Andre Ethier or Alex Rios who will be down this year may be in order. Don’t be disappointed if Jay Bruce falls into your lap after Stanton goes early. Bruce’s home run potential this year is in the mid thirties.

Projection: I don’t think Stanton is capable of hitting less than 33 homers this year which makes him the low risk outfielder that he is, but I doubt he can reach 45 bombs as a 21 year old with the pitching in the NL East. Expect a .265 BA, 38 HR, 105 RBI, 90 R, 6 SB.

It’s time to buy low on Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter had arguably the worst season of his career at the plate in 2010. His .270  batting average was 40 points below his career average, his 10 home runs tied for the fewest in a season, his slugging percentage was the lowest of his career, and he struck out the most times since 2005. His advanced metrics were down too. His BABIP was a career-low, as was his runs created per-game and line-drive percentage. He also led the league in outs created.

So it’s a great time to buy low on the New York Yankee captain.

Analysis: Jeter can still hit. His batting average from 2005-2009 was .322, 50 points better than 2010. If Girardi has any sense, he’ll lead off with Brett Gardner and let Jeter hit 2nd. Jeter has made an adjustment to his swing from last season which will hopefully help his strikeout numbers.

Beyond the top three shortstops (Ramirez, Tulowitzki, and Reyes), there are nothing but question marks. Jeter will hit atop baseball’s most potent lineup, and has all the skills to bounce back from a sub-par year.

What’s encouraging is Jeter’s contact percentage in 2010 was the same as his career average, but his BABIP was 50 points lower than his career average, meaning he was a victim of bad luck more than anything else. If his stats normalize to their career averages in 2011, Jeter should far exceed his 6th round draft status. He’s currently going for only $25 in auction drafts, and can easily outperform that value.

Projection: .311 / 14 home runs / 70 RBI’s / 22 steals / 110 runs scored

What do you think? Will Jeter bounce back from the worst season of his career? Or is he finally on the way down?

Chris Young Could Be a Steal for Your Rotation

The former All-Star’s continued battle back from shoulder surgery appears to be on the right track, which could be a huge plus for both Mets fans and Fantasy owners.

Analysis: A towering presence on the mound, the 6’10” Young is all but a shoe-in for a spot in the Amazin’s 2011 rotation. After undergoing right shoulder surgery in August of ’09, the 31-year-old finally made it back to the mound last September, going 2-0 in four very impressive starts which took place during a Padres playoff chase. Young’s performance in these pressure games brought back memories of his first two seasons in San Diego (’06 and ’07) where he struck out 331 batters over 352.1 innings, leading the league in hits allowed per nine innings both years. Never a true power arm despite his intimidating size, the big right-hander has added a splitter to his arsenal this spring in an effort to see more ground balls. Traditionally a fly ball pitcher, adding this lower in the strike zone option to the mix makes him that more dangerous to opposing hitters. His Grapefruit League progress has been very reassuring, allowing two runs (on two solo homers) over nine innings to date.

Projection: The 2011 Mets are a team rife with uncertainties and, to be fair, we have to place Young in that category. His sample size since returning from surgery, albeit enticing, is a small one. However, the indications that Young can return to his All-Star form are promising. Backed by a sometimes inconsistent yet potentially explosive offense and an average bullpen, the possibility for a comeback season is gaining steam with each spring appearance. Owners willing to take a flier on Young may end up pleasantly surprised to the tune of 12-14 victories and a low ERA, especially in spacious Citi Field.

The Jose Bautista Dilemma

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman shocked Major League Baseball (and fantasy baseball) by unleashing a majors-best 54 home runs last season, seemingly out of nowhere. How “out of nowhere?”

From 2004-2009: 1754 at-bats, 59 home runs, 211 RBI’s, .729 OPS, 14% home run rate,  .3 Wins Above Replacement

2010 season stats: 569 at-bats, 54 home runs, 124 RBI’s, .995 OPS, 36% home run rate, 5.6 Wins Above Replacement

Analysis: Bautista has “one-year wonder” written all over him, at least for that kind of production. Why is that? His home run rate (% of hits that were home runs) was astronomical, even compared to the best power hitter today, Albert Pujols (whose career home run rate is 21.5%). Bautista’s BABIP was an abysmal .233.

The only encouraging stat in terms of continued production from 2010 was his on-base percentage, which was .378. After a terrible April, his K/BB ratio was almost exactly 1:1.  Teams will have to respect his patience and power, and unless Aaron Hill and Adam Lind rediscover their stroke, teams will pitch around Bautista. Expect an increase in his stolen bases because of this.

Strategy: There certainly is a place for Bautista, but it’s not in the 4th round where he’s currently drafted in most leagues. Even if his production drops off significantly, he can still hit 30 home runs and drive in 90-100, which are great numbers for a 3rd baseman. He’s currently the 36th player drafted in Yahoo! drafts, ahead of players like Ian Kinsler, CC Sabathia, and Jon Lester, all of which provide more value than Bautista. If he can be had in the late 5th round or later, he’s worth drafting, but not in the 3rd or 4th round.

Prediction: .258 / 33 home runs / 103 RBI’s / 99 runs / 15 steals.

Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez is Underrated

Carlos Gonzalez, a consensus 1st-round pick is underrated? Absolutely.

In Yahoo! standard drafts, his Average Draft Position (ADP) is 8.7. Over at MockDraftCentral his ADP is 6.8. However, a case will be made to draft him 4th overall.

The top three players in almost every fantasy draft will be Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera, and probably in that order. They will be followed by Votto, Longoria, and Tulowitzki in some order. But Gonzalez offers a unique fantasy package that should go #4 in your draft. There are many viable fantasy options in the outfield, but Gonzalez offers true 5-category potential, more than any other player.

Analysis: Forget the Coors’ Field Factor. Gonzalez was far better at Coors Field (by a whopping 386 points in OPS), but the more impressive (and park-neutral) split is when he it 3rd in the lineup vs. leadoff.

Batting leadoff (44 games): .290, .785 OPS, 8 home runs, 22 RBI’s – 90 total bases
Batting third ( 90 games) : .358, 1.067 OPS, 25 home runs, 80 RBI’s – 241 total bases

To put that in perspective, Gonzalez has more total bases in 90 games batting third than Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, or Scott Rolen had for their entire seasons. And remember, that .358 batting average is park-neutral and includes data from both home and away games, not just at Coors Field. Over a full season, Gonzalez could put up numbers that rival Larry Walker’s epic 1997 season. Draft him 4th (or even 3rd if you don’t have a “fifth” of confidence in Miguel Cabrera)

Projection: .345 / 44 home runs / 130 RBI’s / 110 runs / 28 steals – and a #1 ranking going into next season.