Category: MLB

Last Call On Kennedy

Ian Kennedy has a 2.00 ERA and 22 strikeouts over his last three starts.

Analysis: Kennedy’s season is starting to round into form. He currently has a 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 79.2 innings of work. He’s 12th in the bigs in K’s, 17th in WHIP and 42nd in ERA. Overall this year he is the 23rd best starter in roto formats yet he remains available in a few fantasy leagues out there.

The sabermetrics back Kennedy up as well. Kennedy has a 2.97 xFIP with a sustainable strand rate, HR/FB rate and BABIP against. His velocity is up significantly on his fastball and his walk rate is just 2.2/9 IP. We are talking about a middle tier fantasy starter that is putting up numbers yet is getting absolutely no love. Yes, Kennedy has had a few bad starts but he has posted a sub 3.70 ERA in both April and May this season. It appears that all Kennedy needs now is for the Padres not to be dead last in the majors in runs scored.

Ian Kennedy is available in 10-25% of fantasy leagues. His next start is in Philly this coming Tuesday.

Buy Low: Marlon Byrd

Phillies RF Marlon Byrd with his .274 average, 8 homeruns, and 32 RBIs through his first 55 games is proving to doubters that his 2-year/$16 million contract wasn’t totally outrageous. Byrd is off to a hot start with his triple-slash line of .274/.330/.476 as compared to his career .262/.316/.389 through May.

Although Byrd is already off to a better than usual start, we have yet to experience the months in which he thrives most. Byrd’s career average in June and July is over 30 points higher than in the first two months of the season. His career OBP and SLG are also significantly higher after May as well. In fact, April and May are the only two months in which Byrd hits below .280, and April is the only month in which he slugs below .400.

Byrd’s best numbers come in June and July, but he doesn’t slack in the dog days of August or September either. Seeing how Byrd traditionally hits considerably better in the coming months than the months we’ve experienced thus far, it may be a good idea to buy low.

We know Byrd’s numbers are going to increase, especially in these summer months, but even in the fall. Byrd is available as a free agent in about 30% of leagues. If you’re looking for a right fielder, I suggest grabbing Byrd while he’s cheap and before he really heats up.

Selling High- Lind

Adam Lind is hitting .349 this season with 3 home runs and 18 RBI in 34 games played.

Analysis: Lind is now thirty years old and is a career .271 hitter. His BABIP is .400 this year which is 100 points above his career average. His BABIP is 5th highest in baseball among players with at least 100 plate appearances. Drew Stubbs is first on that list. Stubbs is a career .243 hitter who is magically hitting .317 this season.

There are a few positives to take away.  Lind’s strikeouts are down to a 16% clip… his lowest since his 35 home run campaign in 2009. Lind is also drawing walks at a career high clip and he is also swinging at the fewest amount of pitches outside the strike zone since his 2009 breakout season. Although Lind is slugging .566, the 3 home runs in 34 games played isn’t the power many fantasy owners are expecting. His power is a bit overrated- he hit 23 bombs last year in 143 games and had 11 homers in 93 games in 2012. For a DH/1B he is a fine addition off the wire… just don’t expect 25 home runs by the end of the year or a .300 plus batting average either.

Adam Lind is available in 20-50% of fantasy leagues.

What to Expect from Jose Abreu after DL Stint

Jose Abreu is scheduled to return to the lineup on June 2nd. Before landing on the DL about two weeks ago for tendinitis in his left ankle, Abreu was slashing .260/.312/.595 with a .900+ OPS and 15 homeruns in just 173 at-bats. He was averaging more fantasy points per day than any other 1B in the bigs and 5th most of any hitter with at least 50 at-bats this year. However, if you’re counting on him to continue carrying your fantasy team for the remainder of the season like he did for the first month and a half, you should be slightly worried.

There have been seven hitters to suffer tendinitis in their lower half since 2010. Four (C. Utley, R. Sweeney, M. Bradley, T. Buck) had either no sample of games before or after the injury. Last season, Melky Cabrera and Kyle Blanks each suffered tendinitis in their left lower half as a right-handed hitter, the same scenario Abreu’s experiencing. Neither player hit a single homerun after returning from the injury. Cabrera’s numbers stayed virtually the same. Blanks, who more accurately represents Abreu’s game, suffered a .200+ drop in SLG% and .272 drop in OPS. Not a good sign.

If you’re looking for optimism, Andy Dirks in 2012 experienced just a slight decrease in power and underwent just a .048 drop in SLG% after returning from his injury. He was a left-handed hitter though. Interesting note: each of the three examples injured their front foot.

There doesn’t seem to be a large enough sample-size to guarantee a decrease in performance, but it’s almost guaranteed that Abreu will not be averaging an 11.5 AB/HR rate anymore. Abreu should continue as one of the league’s top power hitters, but don’t depend on him to be your team’s top player anymore.

Under The Radar- Sean Rodriguez

Sean Rodriguez has been one of the most productive utility players in baseball this year. Rodriguez has 6 home runs and 20 RBI in 36 games played this year.

Analysis: Sean Rodriguez has position eligibility at first base, second base and in the outfield. He is currently slugging .523 which would be 19th in baseball if he had enough at bats to qualify. Over the last two weeks of the season he ranks as the 14th best fantasy second baseman, 26th best first baseman and the 65th best outfielder. The 6 home runs in 36 games played is a great mark but the pace will slow down some due to an inflated HR/FB rate.

Another asset that Rodriguez can provide is stolen bases. Although he only has 1 stolen base this year he averages about 10 stolen bases per 162 games played. Yes, Rodriguez is hitting just .227 this year but his BABIP this season is about thirty points below his career average. He’s capable of hitting over .250 going forward while providing positional versatility in addition to some power numbers. Sean Rodriguez is available in 95-99% of fantasy leagues… keep an eye on him.