BABIP Regression

Casey McGehee, Drew Stubbs and Adam Lind are unexpectedly among the leaders in BABIP this season. Expect a regression.

Analysis: Casey McGehee is hitting .319 this season with a .369 BABIP. The thirty-one year old is a career .267 hitter with a .298 BABIP. His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up but his .072 isolated power is 44th out of 44 among third baseman with 150 plate appearances. He has 1 home run and 1 stolen base this season…. when his batting average dips you can say goodbye to his runs batted in as well.

Drew Stubbs is another player to avoid. He is hitting .292 this season with a .378 BABIP. He is a career .244 hitter with a .327 BABIP. He does have 10 bombs and 11 swipes this season so he remains a viable option even if his batting average dips. Stubbs is still striking out at a 29% clip and walking 3% below his career average this year. Keep in mind that CarGo and Corey Dickerson are back so he may not get as many at bats.

Adam Lind should return to action by the end of the month. He is hitting .320 with a .376 BABIP. The thirty-one year old is a career .272 hitter with a .302 BABIP. He only has 4 home runs in 61 games this season. He ranks 27th in isolated power among first baseman with 150 plate appearances. Expect a sub .300 batting average by season’s end.

Selling High- Lind

Adam Lind is hitting .349 this season with 3 home runs and 18 RBI in 34 games played.

Analysis: Lind is now thirty years old and is a career .271 hitter. His BABIP is .400 this year which is 100 points above his career average. His BABIP is 5th highest in baseball among players with at least 100 plate appearances. Drew Stubbs is first on that list. Stubbs is a career .243 hitter who is magically hitting .317 this season.

There are a few positives to take away.  Lind’s strikeouts are down to a 16% clip… his lowest since his 35 home run campaign in 2009. Lind is also drawing walks at a career high clip and he is also swinging at the fewest amount of pitches outside the strike zone since his 2009 breakout season. Although Lind is slugging .566, the 3 home runs in 34 games played isn’t the power many fantasy owners are expecting. His power is a bit overrated- he hit 23 bombs last year in 143 games and had 11 homers in 93 games in 2012. For a DH/1B he is a fine addition off the wire… just don’t expect 25 home runs by the end of the year or a .300 plus batting average either.

Adam Lind is available in 20-50% of fantasy leagues.

Buying Low- Adam Lind

Adam Lind’s bat is heating up as injuries abound at all positions in baseball right now.

Analysis: Adam Lind amassed 8 hits, 1 HR and 3 runs in three games against the San Diego Padres over the weekend. Two of those games were extra inning games but he has his batting average up to .323 now which is all that really matters. His strikeout rate this year is the lowest of his career. Lind is also walking at a career high 13.5% clip. His .410 OBP is 8th in baseball among batters with at least 150 plate appearances. He is a power bat but he only has 5 bombs so far in 44 games this year which isn’t that bad for a guy with first base and DH position eligibility.

At the moment Lind is available in 70-90% of fantasy leagues. He is just a few years removed from a 35 home run campaign and has hit at least 23 home runs in three of the last four years. We must acknowledge that his high BABIP has inflated his batting average and that he should hit in the .270-280 range going forward but his power should be on its way.