Category: MLB

Hamilton Prefers Center Field – Stats Say Otherwise

Josh Hamilton recently said he’d prefer to play center field over left field. His reason is music to baseball purists’ ears:

“”I love to play defense more than anything. I love taking away from other people — not in a bad-guy sense, just having fun. Center field gives you more opportunities to do that.” – Josh Hamilton

Hamilton is an excellent center fielder. He’s robbed many players of extra-base hits and home runs. He’s thrown out runners on base, and keeps some runners from even trying to take that extra base. However he’s hurt himself crashing into walls the last two seasons, costing him (and fantasy owners) 102 games over the last two season. Despite an MVP-performance, missing the entire month of September was critical for many fantasy owners on the brink of championships.

Moving to left field from center will help keep Hamilton healthy, and focus more on hitting. Over his four-year pro career, Hamilton has hit much better as a left fielder than a center fielder (park factors not included).

Left Field (97 games): .369 BA and 1.103 OPS

Center Field (270 games): .287 BA and .847 OPS

His home run and RBI numbers are substantially better playing left field as well (extrapolated over 162 games)

Left Field:  45 home runs and 131 RBI’s,

Center Field: 28 home runs and 99 RBI’s

As a fantasy owner, which position would you prefer Hamilton to play?

Who knows why Hamilton hits better playing left? Left field is less physically demanding than center, but like Charlie Sheen, Josh Hamilton has one speed, “Go.”

“Ham-bone” won’t sneak up on anyone this season as he’s the 4th outfielder drafted on average, and is a steal in the mid-to-late second round. He won’t play 162 games. He probably won’t get to 150 games. But playing left for 135 games would produce the following line:

Projection: .340 BA / 37 home runs / 120 RBI’s / 102 runs / 8 steals.

Rangers shuffle lineup, Andrus to benefit

Manager Ron Washington has re-aligned the Texas Rangers lineup, with Ian Kinsler slated to lead off and Elvis Andrus to hit 2nd. Michael Young will hit 6th.

Analysis: Andrus’s line from 2010 was deceivingly mediocre. He only hit .265, but his 32 steals and 88 runs were encouraging. So why is a player with his speed being moved to the #2 spot? Well, all of Andrus’s metrics from the lead-off spot were terrible. He led off in 134 games, and hit an anemic .136 with a .200 OBP in the first inning. Also, Andrus hit only .230 with a .304 OBP with the bases empty, and only .148 the first time he saw a starting pitcher.

However, for whatever inexplicable reasons, with runners on base, Andrus became a dynamic hitter. With men on, Andrus hit .339 and his on-base percentage soared to .420. With runners in scoring position, he was even better, hitting .347 with a .440 OBP. Andrus’s BABIP climbed over .400 in those situations, versus a ho-hum .277 with the bases empty.

So that’s a lot of stats to say that Andrus was a better hitter with men on base than leading off, but manager Ron Washington’s decision to move a player with Andrus’s speed out of the lead-off spot warranted explanation. However, he’s only 22 years old and his potential is through the roof. The move to the 2nd spot will help his batting average and RBI’s, but without extra-base power, it will still be a limited number of RBI’s.

Andrus is currently the 99th player drafted in standard drafts, and his average auction price is $8.6. That’s a little too high for a 2-category player in standard drafts, but just about right for auction.

Prediction: .282 / 94 runs / 2 home runs / 64 RBI’s, 34 steals.

A.J. Burnett’s 2011 Fantasy Outlook

A.J. Burnett had his first outing of the Spring and threw two scoreless innings, giving up two hits to the Astros.

Analysis: There is a lot of pressure on A.J. Burnett to bounce back from his 10-15 losing record as he goes on to say: “I know the cameras are on me, the spotlight is on me to turn it around”.  Fantasy owners of Burnett and Yankee fans alike know that he is an extremely inconsistent player.  One week he will go 7 strong innings giving up just a run, and the following outing he implodes and gives up 5 in an inning.  Burnett is the kind of guy that gets easily frazzled and can lose control of the plate and the game at any time.  Play him when he’s hot and avoid him when he’s cold because there is no middle ground with him.

Projection: Expect A.J. to post a close to .500 record as a pitcher this year.  He will string together a few wins in a row, but eventually he will come back down to earth.  When he does, just make sure he is out of your lineups.

Grady Sizemore Paradise Lost Last Season

Last season at age 27 with experience Sizemore should have been the clean, electric, more personable  version of Barry Bonds who hung up these numbers in his last season in Pittsburgh at the same age: 109 R, 34 HR, 103 RBI, 39 SB, .311 BA, .456 OBP, and 1.080 OPS., but  that season and those stats are lost for Grady Sizemore. In 2011 at age 28 after missing so many games the last 2 seasons due to injuries, what can we expect?

Analysis: Before injuries took their toll Grady Sizemore put up numbers that remind us of some very fine hitters at the same ages – Duke Snider at ages 22 and 23, Jack Clark at 24, Barry Bonds at 25 and 26. Sizemore’s growth as a hitter has obviously been sidetracked. He won’t be back at full speed when 2011 begins. Also, we may be too optomistic about his 2011 PA, which would depress his counting stats further. We would settle for these stats as his first step back toward stardom.

Projection: 600 PA, 80 R, 21 HR, 60 RBI, 22 SB, .283 BA.

Is Alex Rodriguez Finally at 100%?

In a very candid, upbeat interview with WFAN’s Mike Francesca earlier this week, Alex Rodriguez made it clear that he is now fully recovered from his 2009 hip surgery.

Analysis: Make no mistake; This isn’t the same A-Rod who used to choke under pressure, and then give scripted answers to the throng of media waiting for him after each big game. This isn’t the same A-Rod whose guarded, uptight persona caused noticeable tension in the clubhouse. This is the A-Rod who drove in 18 runs in the 2009 postseason en route to his first ring. This is the A-Rod who opened this spring’s introductory press conference by joking about “Popcorn-gate”, his televised moment of PDA with Cameron Diaz during the Super Bowl. This is the A-Rod who feels at home in his own skin, a feeling that has eluded him since arriving in New York seven years ago. Coming into camp visibly trimmer, the future Hall of Famer appears ready to roll, and sounds determined to improve on his 2010 output. Granted, he did hit 30 bombs and drive in 125 runs, a great season for 98% of his peers. However, Rodriguez is not like the rest of the league. Matter of fact, he’s far from it. Arguably the most talented player of this generation, his surgery definitely slowed him down whether he will admit it or not. Never one to make excuses, Rodriguez did admit that he has done significantly more rehab than training over the last 2 or 3 years at the instruction of his surgeon, Dr. Marc Philippon. Those restrictions were lifted by his doctor this past November and A-Rod is back to training at his old pace, a scary thought for American League pitchers. Although he won’t admit that his rehab has directly affected his production, reading between the lines says otherwise.

Projection: A-Rod owners should be giddy about his current state of mind and physical condition as he comes into this season with no limitations, hungry for another championship. Surrounded once again by a ridiculous lineup, it is not inconceivable that he return to his MVP form of 2007 where he led the league in runs, home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. Rodriguez doesn’t get the respect that he used to on Draft Day, and this could be a boon for those who believe in his potential resurgence. It’s time to treat Rodriguez like a first round pick once again, whether the other owners in your league believe that or not.