Category: MLB

Erik Bedard Makes First Major League Appearance In 18 Months

It only took the Mariners southpaw nine pitches to retire the Padres in order yesterday, after spending all of the 2010 season on the DL.

Analysis: Arriving in Seattle in February of 2008 as part of the Adam Jones deal, Bedard was expected to provide a stabilizing force toward the front of the M’s rotation. Coming off a 2007 campaign in which he averaged 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and finished fifth in Cy Young voting, hopes were high for the Canadian with the wicked curveball. While on the mound Erik did deliver as promised, putting up impressive numbers in both 2008 and 2009. However, the key phrase here is “while on the mound”, as Bedard was only able to make 15 starts in each season due to shoulder issues, the most serious being a torn labrum. Now Bedard is back, inking a non-guaranteed contract in December with the same team who traded a package of prospects for him over three years ago. Folks in Seattle are hoping that their investment finally pays off in 2011 and that the 31-year-old lefty can stay healthy for 28+ starts.

Projection: Most Fantasy owners are aware of Bedard coming into their drafts, but these same owners will be understandably gun shy when it comes to this type of risk. My stance on Bedard is a bit different as the potential upside, especially when it comes to strikeouts, is tremendous. Yesterday was only one inning in late February, but it’s more than we’ve been able to see from the former Orioles ace in what feels like an eternity. Nothing is guaranteed for Bedard right now, including a spot on the Mariners Opening Day roster. If I was forced to draft my team today, however, I would take a flyer on him in the later rounds. This is a veteran who has worked his way back from what is considered to be one of the most devastating injuries for a pitcher, and he will be pushed along carefully over the next four weeks. This is also a guy who could still have an exciting career ahead of him. My crystal ball may still have some snow covering it, but a closer look shows Bedard fitting in nicely behind King Felix and winning 12-14 games in 2011.

$46 Albert Pujols, $10 Neil Walker, 3 Legged Stool

Issue: One Freeze Roster slot remains. You must choose between $46 Pujols and $10 Neil Walker, but at the end of Auction Day you want to own both. Which one do you keep, then buy back the other?

Facts: Your league is in Stage 3 where everyone is experienced and they all know everything, so projected value is the same as the Auction market price. You suspect a 20% inflation rate on Auction Day from the Keeper rosters. In 24 seasons only 3 times has a player gone for the league high of $50: Albert twice and Hanley Ramirez once. Albert will earn $48 and Neil $15 in 2011. In this highly competitive league an extra $4 under the salary cap could make the difference in acquiring Alexi Casilla over Jack Wilson in the End Game.

Analysis:

(A) Keep Albert and buy back Walker.

$46 Albert’s Freeze Salary

$18 Neil’s price at Auction ($15 X 120%)

$64 Total Investment Cost

$63 Value ($48 + $15)

$1 Loss On Investment

(B) Keep Walker and buy back Pujols on Auction Day.

$10 Walker’s Freeze Salary

$50 Albert’s cost on Auction Day (League’s Psychological Auction Price Ceiling)

$60 Total Investment Cost

$63 Value

$3 Profit On Investment

3 Legged “Price/Cost” Stool: Freeze Day is in 2 weeks and the wind is blowing out at the Grapefruit League’s McKechnie Field in Bradenton. Neil Walker is getting more loft than usual and is looking like the 2011 version of Jayson Heyward, breaking auto windows in the distant parking lot. The news or noise makes Walker’s pre-inflation market price tick up to $18, so with 20% inflation he’ll cost $22 on Auction Day, wipe out your profit, and you’ll have to settle for a Jack Wilson Wanna-Be in the End Game. Now you should keep Walker. The 3 Prices or Costs are what he’ll earn, what he’ll cost (market), what he’ll cost with inflation.

Projections:

Name AVG   R   RBI   HR   SB   AB
Pujols 0.318   110   114   39   10   571
Walker 0.278   73   83   16   7   560
                       
Casilla 0.275   70   60   10   32   507
Wilson 0.252   21   29   2   3   296

Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera+: Consistent Mashers

Issue: For the careful fantasy player who wants bankable hitting production in HR, RBI, and R without damaging his team BA, where should he look?

Facts: Auction/Draft Prep Tools: Categories Leader Board Last 3 Seasons— Thirty-nine hitters with

60+HR

200+RBI

200+ R

.270+ BA.

Ranked below by BA.

Player PA HR RBI R BA
Albert Pujols 2041 126 369 339 .331
Matt Holliday 1968 77 300 296 .315
Josh Hamilton 1640 74 284 236 .315
Hanley Ramirez 1964 78 249 318 .314
Miguel Cabrera 2017 109 356 292 .314
Joey Votto 1781 86 281 257 .314
Manny Ramirez 1405 65 226 202 .311
Kevin Youkilis 1644 75 271 267 .308
Robinson Cano 2004 68 266 276 .304
Ryan Braun 2055 94 323 306 .303
Justin Morneau 1650 71 285 235 .300
Vladimir Guerrero 1650 71 256 227 .300
David Wright 2023 72 299 290 .297
Ryan Zimmerman 1762 72 242 246 .294
Troy Tulowitzki 1578 67 233 238 .294
Andre Ethier 1866 74 265 253 .289
Derrek Lee 1939 74 281 264 .286
Alex Rodriguez 1724 95 328 256 .286
Adrian Beltre 1730 61 223 212 .286
Mark Teixeira 2104 105 351 318 .285
Adrian Gonzalez 2073 107 319 280 .285
Torii Hunter 1760 66 258 235 .285
Chase Utley 1905 80 262 300 .284
Evan Longoria 1840 82 302 263 .283
Raul Ibanez 1908 73 286 253 .281
Lance Berkman 1708 68 244 235 .281
Aubrey Huff 1926 73 279 255 .280
Prince Fielder 2127 112 326 283 .279
Jayson Werth 1810 87 251 277 .279
Matt Kemp 1992 72 266 272 0.279
Paul Konerko 1766 89 261 223 0.279
Hunter Pence 1947 75 246 247 0.278
Aramis Ramirez 1494 67 259 204 0.278
Vernon Wells 1796 66 232 226 0.275
Jason Kubel 1677 69 273 215 0.274
Jason Bay 1709 73 267 262 0.273
Ryan Ludwick 1707 76 279 230 0.273
Corey Hart 1743 63 241 231 0.271
J.D. Drew 1541 65 200 232 0.270

 

Analysis: Let’s put our arms around these 39 by slotting them into recognizable types:

Usually Out Performs His Salary: Drew (not sexy).

Post-Injury Bounce Back: Bay, Utley, Morneau.

May Have A Production Bump In Him: Hart, Kubel, Wells, Manny.

Possible Slight Bargain: Ludwick, Fielder, Huff, Berkman, Teixeira, Lee, Vlad, Cabrerra, Holliday.

Probably Over-Priced: Aramis, Konerko, Kemp, Werth, Ibanez, Adrian G., Beltre, A-Rod, Wright, Braun, Cano, Votto, Hanley, Hamilton.

Get What You Pay For: Pence, Longoria, Hunter, Ethier, Tulo, Zimmerman, Youkilis, Pujols.

Projections:

Name AVG R RBI HR SB AB
Albert Pujols 0.318 110 114 39 10 571
Ryan Braun 0.293 105 108 35 16 624
Hanley Ramirez 0.302 105 84 24 30 591
Miguel Cabrera 0.304 99 119 34 4 595
Joey Votto 0.297 97 109 32 11 581
Adrian Gonzalez 0.306 103 105 33 1 583
Matt Holliday 0.304 95 99 25 13 585
Troy Tulowitzki 0.291 96 103 26 12 561
Alex Rodriguez 0.280 89 118 32 11 517
David Wright 0.289 96 95 24 20 597
Robinson Cano 0.306 92 94 25 4 613
Josh Hamilton 0.306 86 102 26 9 541
Mark Teixeira 0.276 101 114 33 2 582
Jayson Werth 0.278 99 90 27 17 568
Evan Longoria 0.280 96 100 28 11 601
Kevin Youkilis 0.298 97 98 24 6 522
Matt Kemp 0.275 91 85 24 26 612
Chase Utley 0.278 98 88 24 14 542
Prince Fielder 0.274 89 98 34 3 551
Adrian Beltre 0.293 82 89 25 8 582
Brandon Phillips 0.268 95 84 21 20 635
Ryan Zimmerman 0.286 92 90 26 3 593
Hunter Pence 0.272 88 86 25 15 633
Justin Morneau 0.289 85 96 25 1 527
Andre Ethier 0.283 87 89 25 4 583
Torii Hunter 0.274 84 90 21 15 563
Vladimir Guerrero 0.281 78 91 26 4 512
Corey Hart 0.271 81 82 22 13 540
Aramis Ramirez 0.270 75 100 24 2 510
Derrek Lee 0.281 78 85 23 3 513
Aubrey Huff 0.267 85 89 20 4 576
Vernon Wells 0.265 81 81 20 9 595
Jason Bay 0.248 83 85 24 10 522
Raul Ibanez 0.278 70 79 20 3 472
Jason Kubel 0.267 68 82 21 2 494
Ryan Ludwick 0.253 73 85 23 3 532
J.D. Drew 0.265 77 70 20 4 456
Lance Berkman 0.262 71 74 18 7 464
Manny Ramirez 0.276 66 71 19 2 416

Jair Jurrjens – The Next Juan Marichal or Scott Sanderson?

Issue: As a 24 year old Jair Jurrjens followed up a fine 2009 season with a shortened 2010 season because of injuries. He seems to be fine in Spring Training, so who will he become over the rest of his career and most importantly in 2011? Will he pitch like Hall Of Famer Juan Marichal or Scott Sanderson?

Facts: Bill James created formulas in order to compare players of different eras. Comparing Jair’s career to date to other pitchers’ careers at the same age there are at least 10 similar hurlers. We’ll use 2 of them to compare careers in order to peer into the future of J.J. The two pitchers are Hall Of Famer Juan Marichal (16 season career) and Scott Sanderson (19 season career).

First, actual career stats for all 3 through age 24, then Marichal’s and Sanderson’s career stats beginning with the season they turned 25 and going through the remainder of their careers:

(ERA+ is adjusted to the hurler’s ball park. Counter intuitively the higher the better, with 100 = the league average.)

Player From/To Yrs W L ERA GS SHO IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Jurrjens 2007-2010 4 37 27 3.52 92 0 550.3 518 215 43 198 390 117
Marichal 1960-1962 3 37 23 3.44 74 7 529 475 202 63 166 335 109
Sanderson 1978-1981 4 38 28 3.10 88 8 577.7 528 199 47 162 390 115


Player From/To Yrs W L ERA GS SHO IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Marichal 1963-1975 13 206 119 2.79 383 45 2978 2678 924 257 543 1968 125
Sanderson 1982-1996 15 125 115 4.06 319 6 1984 2062 894 250 463 1221 98

Next, Marichal’s and Sanderson’s age 25 season actual stats, because in 2011 J.J. will be the same age:

Marichal

Year Age Tm W L ERA GS SHO IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1963 25 SFG 25 8 2.41 40 5 321.1 259 27 61 248 133 0.996 7.3 6.9 4.07

Sanderson

Year Age Tm W L ERA GS SHO IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1982 25 MON 12 12 3.46 32 0 224 212 24 58 158 106 1.205 8.5 6.3 2.72

 

Analysis: The comparisons are fascinating. Through age 24 J.J. has the best ERA+, yet Scott is better in that same category than Juan. Likewise, J.J. has given up the least HR and is tied for most Ks. At this point J.J. could be either one and Sanderson was a better pitcher than Marichal early on. When we look at the rest of the other 2 hurlers’ careers some things stand out. Juan was clearly the best. ERA, ERA+, IP, Ks, and Wins are where he easily separates himself from Scott and hammers down Hall Of Fame type production. And how about Juan’s 45 shutouts over the remainder of his career? Not bad. Lastly, the 25 year old seasons also tell us something. Scott is a .500 pitcher, while Juan earns as many wins as his number of birthdays. We think J.J. is a season behind these 2 due to injuries and surgery last season, so we feel his break-out season will be in 2012, not 2011, but he will still be a fine starting pitcher this season. J.J. in 2012 could be either of the other 2, but this season shall give us a nod in which direction- HOF candidate or a little better than a .500 hurler.

2011 Projection:

Name Team $ W$ S$ ERA$ WHIP$ K$ Pos$ W S ERA WHIP K IP
Jair Jurrjens ATL SP 8 2 -1 1 0 1 5 11 0 3.47 1.27 129 166

{6-4-3 Assists to Last Player Picked and Baseball-Reference.}

Kelly Johnson, J.J. Hardy, Conor Jackson: Power Trends?

All 3 were originally drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and made their MLB Debuts in 2005. All have battled injuries and illness, plus each has had a uniform change. Power-wise what can we expect in 2011?

Facts:

Johnson
Year Age PA HR% SO% BB% AB/HR HR/FB
2009 27 346 0.023 0.156 0.093 37.9 0.061
2010 28 671 0.039 0.221 0.118 22.5 0.107
Career 6 Yrs 2573 0.028 0.20 0.11 31.6 0.078
Hardy
2009 26 465 0.024 0.183 0.093 37.6 0.071
2010 27 375 0.016 0.144 0.075 56.7 0.047
Career 6 Yrs 2673 0.03 0.143 0.081 29.8 0.086
Jackson
2009 27 110 0.009 0.146 0.1 99 0.024
2010 28 241 0.008 0.112 0.129 104 0.021
Career 6 Yrs 2095 0.022 0.114 0.105 39 0.055
MLB Avg 6 Yrs 0.027 0.174 0.085 33.4 0.076

 

HR Park Factor (Handed) Home Park Change From To
Johnson (LH) 2009 95 114
Jackson (RH) 2010 102 77
Hardy (RH) 2011 103 126

 

Analysis: Kelly Johnson is the only one to have above league average power since 2008. His 2010 season looks out of place until you consider that he was healthy and got a nice bump Park Factor wise. Park HR factors indicate Johnson went from 5% below league average to 14% above in the switch last season from Atlanta to Arizona. Note a Park Factor of 100 = league average. Hardy’s HR/AB has been all over the place, but Baltimore’s park should be just what Hardy needs, if healthy, going from 3% above league average to 26%. Hardy did show nice power at shortstop back in 2007 and 2008, with 26 and 24 HR. On the other hand, HR have never been a big part of Jackson’s game and it’s a good thing, as Oakland depresses the HR rate to 77% of league average. Only Johnson was above the league slugging average in 2010. Both Hardy and Johnson are starters in 2010, while watch Jackson’s Spring training for signs of renewed strength, though Oakland has both a crowded starting lineup with veterans and a bench crowded with veterans and prospects alike. Making the team may be the best Jackson can do at this point in his career, but watch for signs of the skills he displayed before injuries took their toll. Remember power wasn’t really there to begin with, though he was still quite young before his career was interrupted.

Projections:

Name Team Pos $ AVG$ R$ RBI$ HR$ SB$ Pos$ AVG R RBI HR SB H AB
J.J. Hardy BAL SS 10 1 0 -1 1 -2 11 0.272 66 61 18 2 130 477
Kelly Johnson ARI 2B 20 1 3 1 1 1 11 0.275 96 77 20 12 162 588
Conor Jackson OAK 1B -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 10 0.245 40 37 6 6 75 307

{6-4-3 Assists to Last Player Picked, StatsCorner, and Baseball-Reference}