Undervalued- Michael Morse

Michael Morse isn’t getting much love this year from fantasy owners. Keep in mind that the fences at Safeco Field are significantly closer this year and the left field wall is shorter.

Analysis:¬†Michael Morse’s average draft position in the 150-160 range is fine if he plays in 120 games but if he stays healthy he will easily outperform it. Morse has played in 248 games over the past two years but he does have 49 home runs during that span. All Morse needs to do this year is stay healthy. He’s back in the American League which is always a plus for a guy like Morse who can DH in addition to playing the outfield and first base. Let us not underestimate the Seattle offense this year. Kendrys Morales, Kyle Seager and Justin Smoak can mash, Jesus Montero should finally tap into his potential and Dustin Ackley is poised for a break-out year.

The biggest problem I have with Morse’s fantasy value is that a few surprising outfielders are being taken ahead of him. Alejandro De Aza(28 years old) has never hit 10 home runs in a season nor has he stolen more than 26 bags. Torii Hunter is 37 years old and coming off of a 16 homer year in 140 games played. Hunter’s .389 BABIP in 2012 was 82 points above his career average… expect a huge dip in his batting average.

 

Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera+: Consistent Mashers

Issue: For the careful fantasy player who wants bankable hitting production in HR, RBI, and R without damaging his team BA, where should he look?

Facts:¬†Auction/Draft Prep Tools: Categories Leader Board Last 3 Seasons— Thirty-nine hitters with

60+HR

200+RBI

200+ R

.270+ BA.

Ranked below by BA.

Player PA HR RBI R BA
Albert Pujols 2041 126 369 339 .331
Matt Holliday 1968 77 300 296 .315
Josh Hamilton 1640 74 284 236 .315
Hanley Ramirez 1964 78 249 318 .314
Miguel Cabrera 2017 109 356 292 .314
Joey Votto 1781 86 281 257 .314
Manny Ramirez 1405 65 226 202 .311
Kevin Youkilis 1644 75 271 267 .308
Robinson Cano 2004 68 266 276 .304
Ryan Braun 2055 94 323 306 .303
Justin Morneau 1650 71 285 235 .300
Vladimir Guerrero 1650 71 256 227 .300
David Wright 2023 72 299 290 .297
Ryan Zimmerman 1762 72 242 246 .294
Troy Tulowitzki 1578 67 233 238 .294
Andre Ethier 1866 74 265 253 .289
Derrek Lee 1939 74 281 264 .286
Alex Rodriguez 1724 95 328 256 .286
Adrian Beltre 1730 61 223 212 .286
Mark Teixeira 2104 105 351 318 .285
Adrian Gonzalez 2073 107 319 280 .285
Torii Hunter 1760 66 258 235 .285
Chase Utley 1905 80 262 300 .284
Evan Longoria 1840 82 302 263 .283
Raul Ibanez 1908 73 286 253 .281
Lance Berkman 1708 68 244 235 .281
Aubrey Huff 1926 73 279 255 .280
Prince Fielder 2127 112 326 283 .279
Jayson Werth 1810 87 251 277 .279
Matt Kemp 1992 72 266 272 0.279
Paul Konerko 1766 89 261 223 0.279
Hunter Pence 1947 75 246 247 0.278
Aramis Ramirez 1494 67 259 204 0.278
Vernon Wells 1796 66 232 226 0.275
Jason Kubel 1677 69 273 215 0.274
Jason Bay 1709 73 267 262 0.273
Ryan Ludwick 1707 76 279 230 0.273
Corey Hart 1743 63 241 231 0.271
J.D. Drew 1541 65 200 232 0.270

 

Analysis: Let’s put our arms around these 39 by slotting them into recognizable types:

Usually Out Performs His Salary: Drew (not sexy).

Post-Injury Bounce Back: Bay, Utley, Morneau.

May Have A Production Bump In Him: Hart, Kubel, Wells, Manny.

Possible Slight Bargain: Ludwick, Fielder, Huff, Berkman, Teixeira, Lee, Vlad, Cabrerra, Holliday.

Probably Over-Priced: Aramis, Konerko, Kemp, Werth, Ibanez, Adrian G., Beltre, A-Rod, Wright, Braun, Cano, Votto, Hanley, Hamilton.

Get What You Pay For: Pence, Longoria, Hunter, Ethier, Tulo, Zimmerman, Youkilis, Pujols.

Projections:

Name AVG R RBI HR SB AB
Albert Pujols 0.318 110 114 39 10 571
Ryan Braun 0.293 105 108 35 16 624
Hanley Ramirez 0.302 105 84 24 30 591
Miguel Cabrera 0.304 99 119 34 4 595
Joey Votto 0.297 97 109 32 11 581
Adrian Gonzalez 0.306 103 105 33 1 583
Matt Holliday 0.304 95 99 25 13 585
Troy Tulowitzki 0.291 96 103 26 12 561
Alex Rodriguez 0.280 89 118 32 11 517
David Wright 0.289 96 95 24 20 597
Robinson Cano 0.306 92 94 25 4 613
Josh Hamilton 0.306 86 102 26 9 541
Mark Teixeira 0.276 101 114 33 2 582
Jayson Werth 0.278 99 90 27 17 568
Evan Longoria 0.280 96 100 28 11 601
Kevin Youkilis 0.298 97 98 24 6 522
Matt Kemp 0.275 91 85 24 26 612
Chase Utley 0.278 98 88 24 14 542
Prince Fielder 0.274 89 98 34 3 551
Adrian Beltre 0.293 82 89 25 8 582
Brandon Phillips 0.268 95 84 21 20 635
Ryan Zimmerman 0.286 92 90 26 3 593
Hunter Pence 0.272 88 86 25 15 633
Justin Morneau 0.289 85 96 25 1 527
Andre Ethier 0.283 87 89 25 4 583
Torii Hunter 0.274 84 90 21 15 563
Vladimir Guerrero 0.281 78 91 26 4 512
Corey Hart 0.271 81 82 22 13 540
Aramis Ramirez 0.270 75 100 24 2 510
Derrek Lee 0.281 78 85 23 3 513
Aubrey Huff 0.267 85 89 20 4 576
Vernon Wells 0.265 81 81 20 9 595
Jason Bay 0.248 83 85 24 10 522
Raul Ibanez 0.278 70 79 20 3 472
Jason Kubel 0.267 68 82 21 2 494
Ryan Ludwick 0.253 73 85 23 3 532
J.D. Drew 0.265 77 70 20 4 456
Lance Berkman 0.262 71 74 18 7 464
Manny Ramirez 0.276 66 71 19 2 416