Category: MLB

Stock Rising- De La Rosa

Jorge De La Rosa has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start in eight consecutive starts.

Analysis: De La Rosa is the 17th best fantasy starter over the last month of the season. He currently has a 3.66 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP and a 7.32 K/9 rate. His WHIP ranks 27th in baseball, his 6 wins is 10th best and his ERA is 58th thus far this year. During the month of May he posted a 1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 28.0 innings of work. His strikeout rate is up from his 2012-13 marks and his velocity is also up.

If De La Rosa played in New York we would not be able to avoid the hype but it is not the case here. He plays in Colorado and constantly gets lost in the shuffle. His next scheduled start is against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday. He is available in 30-75% of fantasy leagues. The only red flag thus far is his .239 BABIP against- it is about sixty points below his career average. Expect low to mid tier numbers going forward.

Selling High- Taveras

Oscar Taveras is the “it guy” in fantasy baseball right now. He homered in his first major league game on Saturday afternoon against the Giants. Many are saying he is a must start in mixed leagues but there is reason to sell high and maximize your return.

Analysis: Taveras will develop into a solid if not great player but there are a few red flags. He has always been a low walk rate guy which will be a concern when pitchers pitch around him and/or give him a heavy dose of the off speed stuff. Secondly, we have to consider that he is still just twenty-one years old. For every Mike Trout and Ryan Braun who had success early on- there are thousands more like Alex Gordon and Delmon Young. Gordon and Young had the upside and needed time to put it together and this may be the case with Taveras. And for every Alex Gordon and Delmon Young there are even more like Travis Snider, Brandon Wood and Andy Marte. This is just a friendly reminder from the guy that told you to pass on the Profar hype last year and sell him high.

Will Oscar Taveras have a great season in the bigs or will he be just another mediocre fantasy outfielder this year? Who knows, but selling high doesn’t sound that bad when guys like Revere, Markakis, Zobrist and Bourn are available on the wire.

Rosario Still Available

Wilin Rosario has played seven games since his return from the disabled list.

Analysis: Thus far this season Rosario has 4 home runs in 31 games played. That isn’t bad but the .234 batting average is a concern. Rosario’s BABIP is about sixty points below his career average so the batting average should tick up a bit sooner than later. He’s a career .273 hitter(.285 at home) so there isn’t much to worry about on that front. Rosario has never had much of a walk rate so we can dismiss the lack of walks but I do like that he has cut down on his strikeouts this year.

We also have to keep in mind that Rosario has 49 home runs over the last two years which is the most for a catcher from 2012-2013. He’s also in the top five among catchers in runs batted in during that two year span. It is obvious that Rosario just came off the disabled list and hasn’t played to his potential this year but he remains a must own.

Wilin Rosario is available in 10-25% of fantasy leagues.

Big Start For E-Jax

Edwin Jackson makes his tenth start of the season tonight against the San Diego Padres.

Analysis: The thirty year old Jackson has always been known for his plus slider and erratic command. This year he still has the slider working and he has an 8.12 K/9 rate as a result but with minimal command issues. The knock on E-Jax has been his consistency but he has actually been a consistent and productive starter over the last few seasons. His xFIP has been south of 4.00 over the last four years and he’s pitched at least 175 plus innings each year during that span. Jackson is also striking out more than seven batters per nine over the last four years despite a loss in velocity.

Thus far this season Jackson has a 3.98 ERA, 3.64 xFIP and a 1.34 WHIP. Jackson has been hot as of late- he has 23 strikeouts in his last 20.0 innings pitched and he’s only allowed 4 earned runs in that three game span. His ERA and WHIP are stable but the strikeouts are worth it.

Edwin Jackson is available in 75-90% of fantasy leagues.

Bedard Watch- 2014

Every year Erik Bedard teases us fantasy owners with some of his brilliant pitching.

Analysis: This year Erik Bedard has been special through six starts. He is currently the thirteenth rated fantasy stater over the last two weeks of the season. He has a 2.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.12 K/9 through 32.1 innings of work. He has been his usual self- walking about four batters per nine innings and throwing his fastball and cutter in the high 80s. Bedard has allowed just two earned runs in his last four starts.

But… we have to consider the red flags as well. His xFIP is 4.96, his FIP is solid at 3.11. His HR/FB ratio is 9% below his career average at… 0%(he hasn’t allowed a home run in 32.1 innings this year). His strand rate is sustainable so there aren’t any issues there.

Erik Bedard is available in 95-99% of fantasy leagues. That number is a bit high for a pitcher who has only allowed two earned runs over his last four starts. He has to improve the strikeouts a bit and limit the walks for more consistent quality starts. He’s an “add at your own risk” guy but he still has middle tier upside.