Category: MLB

Buying Low- Buchholz

Clay Buchholz allowed 3 earned runs in 6.0 innings of work on Thursday afternoon against the Twins. Buchholz is now sporting a 6.17 ERA this season through 8 starts.

Analysis: The 6.17 ERA isn’t as bad as everyone is making it out to be. His xFIP is 4.24 this season and 4.10 for his career. We have to take a look at what is causing the inflated ERA.

First off, Buchholz’s strand rate is 64% this year and 73% for his career. That can be improved upon easily. Also, Buchholz’s BABIP is at a career high this year at .385, his career average is 100 points lower at .285. This is also another issue that should naturally work itself out. Buchholz is back to throwing at the same velocity he was last year and the strikeouts are gradually coming back. He has stuck out 14 batters in his last 16.2 innings pitched and now has his K/9 rate over 7 batters per nine which is slightly above his career average.

It is apparent that Clay Buchholz doesn’t have his best stuff at the moment but he still makes a solid lower tier fantasy option. He is available in 30-60% of fantasy leagues.

Liriano Still Viable

Francisco Liriano gave up 4 earned runs in just 3.2 innings pitched in his last start. Liriano has a 4.54 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this season.

Analysis: Regardless of his troubles on the mound Francisco Liriano remains a viable fantasy starter. His K/9 rate is still great at 8.84 and his HR/FB rate is above his career average but most likely will return to his norm. Liriano’s xFIP is still under 4.00 this season which leads one to believe that he can still put up legit fantasy numbers even if he is on the decline.

Yes, Liriano is not the same pitcher he was last year. His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 from 93.0 last year and his slider velocity is down to 84.5 from 86.9 last year. He is also struggling with his command- his walk rate is up to 4.06 BB/9(it was 3.52 BB/9 last year).

It really is a mixed bag with Liriano. His velocity is down and his command is off but his strikeout rate is 29th in the bigs and his xFIP is solid at 3.65. Liriano is available in 10-30% of fantasy leagues.

Kluber Impresses Again

Corey Kluber pitched another solid game Sunday afternoon against the Chicago White Sox. He lasted 8.0 innings, allowed 1 earned run, walked 2 and struck out 13 batters.

Analysis: Many people are not familiar with Kluber but he is legit. Last year he pitched 147.1 innings and recorded a 3.85 ERA, a 3.10 xFIP and had an 8.31 K/9 rate. This year he is just getting better. Over his last three starts he has pitched 21.2 innings and has struck out 29 batters in that span while only allowing 4 earned runs. He now ranks 10th in the major leagues in strikeouts, 19th in K/9, 19th in innings pitched and 25th in K/BB. Kluber has been dealing!

Corey Kluber isn’t going to get any love because he plays in Cleveland but he is a must own. He’s pitched about 250 big league innings thus far in his career and he has a 3.42 xFIP and an 8.23 K/9 rate to show for it.

Currently, Kluber is available in 20-80% of fantasy leagues. Expect an ERA in the 3.5-3.8 range with tons of strikeouts the rest of the way.

Byrd Still Available

Marlon Byrd has been producing at the plate for the Phillies this year.

Analysis: The twelve year veteran has homered in consecutive games and now has 4 bombs this season. Last year Byrd set a career high in home runs with 24 as a thirty-five/six year old. However, the home runs are not Byrd’s biggest asset. Byrd has 20 runs batted in thus far which is 15th in all of baseball. We may be early in the season but he is on track for 100 plus ribbies which is not a stretch considering he is hitting behind high OBP guys like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

Byrd’s strikeout rate of 28% this year is a bit of a concern but over the last year he’s been hacking a lot more in search of the long ball. His swing percentage is at an all time high(58%) and his contact rate is at an all time low(72%). It appears at the advanced age of thirty-five/thirty-six that Byrd has successfully transitioned from a respectable major league hitter to a slugger.

Marlon Byrd is available in 50-65% of fantasy leagues.

Stock Rising- Revere

Ben Revere has 14 hits in his last eight games played.

Analysis: Ben Revere is not the most well rounded fantasy outfielder but he has been getting the job done for over three years now. Thus far this season Revere is hitting .299 with 10 stolen bases and 14 runs scored. He ranks 3rd among major league outfielders in stolen bases, 20th in batting average and 21st in runs scored. He is currently the 17th best fantasy outfielder this season.

His numbers thus far should not come as a surprise. Revere is a career .286 hitter with 106 stolen bases in just 366 career games. If he stays healthy he will hit the 40-50 stolen base mark. Revere does lack extra base power but he really pulls his weight in steals and batting average. Keep in mind that Revere did miss half of the season last year but he still managed to hit .305 and swipe 22 bags.

Ben Revere is available in 20-50% of fantasy leagues. Revere is a reliable fantasy option in the stolen base and batting average departments compared to Coco Crisp, Carl Crawford and BJ Upton.