Category: NFL

Value Down- Marshawn Lynch

After his playoff run against the Saints it was clear Marshawn Lynch was sure to be one overrated fantasy back this season.

Analysis: Lynch did just play a game against Pittsburgh so we can forgive his lack of numbers this week but we cannot forgive Seattle’s lack of commitment to a ground game over the past year. Lynch has just nineteen carries through two games for just forty-four yards. In fact, Lynch has only amassed 1,187 rushing yards in his last twenty-nine games. He was rated in the thirty range among running backs and he will not live up to even a low tier RB3. It’s time to start looking at backs who carry the rock more considering Seattle has ran the ball 17.5 times per game this year, that just isn’t going to cut it in the fantasy world.

Going forward in the search for back who offers a bit of upside down the road, keep an eye on Delone Carter. Thomas Jones becomes a must add with the injury to Charles in KC. Lynch was never going to have a RB3 year and it’s a shame so many believed the hype from one playoff run.

Arian Foster Is Not A RB1 This Week

Although Gary Kubiak expects Arian Foster to play Sunday against Miami, do not expect the numbers you would want from a RB1.

Analysis: There is no need to give Foster more than twelve to fifteen carries this weekend and Kubiak knows this. Ben Tate is a force and people need to start realizing that. Last week Tate carried the rock 24 times for 116 yards while Derrick Ward chipped in for nine carries. Ward is questionable Sunday with an ankle but it doesn’t really matter here. Ben Tate is the back that will make Foster fall out of top five back status. Tate has been a force in the preseason and was absolutely dominant against the Colts. Kubiak won’t say anything about Foster getting significantly less touches, but Tate’s game will dictate that. Tate is still available in over thirty percent of fantasy leagues and considering hamstring injuries tend to linger, you have to pick this youngster up. The “experts” at ESPN have Foster as their fifth best back in week two and I’d be shocked if he put up RB1 numbers. Conditioning and touches will be the “downfall” for Foster this Sunday.

Deep League Help- Jacoby Jones

It seems like Jacoby Jones has been a deep league sleeper for years and now with the injury to Kevin Walter, Jones will be targeted more against a shaky Miami secondary in week two.

Analysis: Jacoby Jones was only targeted three times in week one against the Colts. Expect that number to increase against a weak Miami secondary. Against the smaller Colts’ defense, Houston ran the ball 41 times to only 24 passing attmepts. You can expect more of a balance against the Dolphins and with it a handful more of targets. Jones is a big play receiver and having Andre Johnson on the field cannot hurt either. Jones should not be an add for some shallow leagues out there but in deeper leagues he’s a great addition while Kevin Walter is out with a severely bruised collarbone. Also, if Owen Daniels(one reception, two targets) continues to struggle out there, Jones just may have a few solid games in him. Jacoby Jones isn’t anything special but the depth at wide out in deeper leagues is much needed on many a fantasy squad.

Selling High- Cam Newton

Cam Newton threw for 422 yards and two touchdowns Sunday against the Cardinals.

Analysis: Cam Newton may have put up some solid numbers in the opener but he did it against Arizona. Arizona was 29th last year in total yards allowed, 23rd against the pass and 30th in points allowed. Arizona managed to “put” up these numbers in a division where no team finished at or above .500 last year.

Cam will be a solid fantasy quarterback one day but that day isn’t going to be any time soon. Take a look at the defenses coming up for Cam- Green Bay, Jacksonville, Chicago, New Orleans, Atlanta and Washington(do not sleep on their defense). Cam will remain a lower tier QB2 this year and the smartest play here is to sell this guy while he is hot. His value will not get any higher and now is the time to stockpile on depth at running back or upgrade at another position. Perhaps the biggest surprise with Cam was only eighteen rushing yards on eight carries. Cam has to produce on the ground if you are to keep the rookie.

On The Rise- Mike Thomas

Mike Thomas was one of the biggest wide receiver sleepers going into the 2011 season and he did not disappoint in week one against the Titans.

Analysis: Mike Thomas was targeted eleven times Sunday afternoon, six more times than any other Jaguar. In fact, all Jaguars not named Mike Thomas were only targeted thirteen times total. Yes, the Jaguars are a run first team, however, we cannot ignore Mike Thomas’ monopoly on the passing targets here. Last year Thomas put up a respectable 820 yards on 66 receptions. With one eight reception game under his belt already, Thomas looks like the sneaky good PPR wide out he was supposed to be.

In terms of fantasy, he may not be a buy low guy right now but his stock is on the rise. At 5’8″ he may not be the red zone threat you would like him to be but considering he was only targeted 102 times last year, a 130 plus target year seems likely now. He’s officially a PPR fantasy stud.