Player News – Page 109 – FantasySP Blog

Draft Impact- Daniel Thomas

Many experts are already tagging Miami’s new running back as a fantasy star, but is he?

Analysis: The Dolphins will not start the 2011 season with Daniel Thomas as their primary back so these “experts” will have to back off of their claims (eventually). The Dolphins will try to resign Ronnie Brown although it may be a lost cause. DeAngelo Williams remains on the market as well as guys like Cedric Benson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ahmad Bradshaw as well as RFA Mike Tolbert and Willis McGahee when he refuses to take a pay cut. In short, there are plenty of viable running backs on the market and the Dolphins must sign one of them. Miami ran the ball the eleventh most times last year but only managed a 3.7 yards per carry average, second worst in the NFL. The Dolphins turned Brandon Marshall from a 10 touchdown, 101 reception receiver into a 3 touchdown, 86 reception low end WR2. Do you really think Thomas will step in and become the best fantasy rookie? I thought not. “Experts” can say all they want about how Daniel Thomas will be the best rookie this year now but when the chips fall and he continues struggling with pass protection and blitz pick up and Miami sign a legit back they’ll have a new flavor of the week to drool over.

Projection: It doesn’t matter who the other running back will be for Miami, Daniel Thomas will not be their primary back this year. The fifth running back off the board in this year’s draft isn’t going to make a run first team who averaged the second worst yards per carry in the NFL last year any better. Expect 140 carries and nothing more.

Draft Impact- Mikel Leshoure

One of the best picks in the second round of the NFL Draft was the selection of Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure by the Detroit Lions. Jahvid Best is a great back to have in PPR leagues but he isn’t a twenty carry per game back.

Analysis: The only knock on Jahvid Best last year was his lingering turf toe injury. Besides battling with that injury for more than half of the season Best still caught a staggering 58 balls and put up 1,042 total yards. Best is still the most talented back in Detroit but the addition of 230 pound bruiser Mikel Leshoure makes the Lions one of the deepest offensive teams in the NFC. Best is still the man in passing situations but Leshoure will become the go to goal line back of choice. We also cannot ignore 31 year old back Maurice Morris who scored five touchdowns in the final six games of the 2010 season but he will drop to third on the depth chart. With Leshoure you have a poor man’s Rashard Mendenhall and that’s not a bad thing. Leshoure will pound the rock and hit pay dirt nearly as much as Jahvid Best.

Projection: Jahvid Best seems to be a lock for 60 receptions and 1,200 total yards this year. Mikel Leshoure will be the short yardage workhorse and should receive 150-180 carries. Expect 700 rushing yards with six scores from Leshoure in 2011. In the long term he may well develop into a borderline RB2/RB3. This year he makes a great insurance policy on Best in the later rounds.

Draft Impact- Jonathan Baldwin

The Chiefs selected 6’5″, 230 pound Jonathan Baldwin with the 26th pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. This pick just may take the Chiefs to the next level but it’s more likely that Baldwin follows the career path of one James Hardy.

Analysis: If you take a look at the positives you just may find yourself liking Jonathan Baldwin more and more. Outside of Dwayne Bowe and his 132 targets no other Chief wide out was targeted more than 43 times. Unless things go absolutely wrong at training camp, Baldwin should slot right into the number two receiver role in Kansas City. Baldwin does have 4.5 speed so he should be able to become a deep threat but his 42 inch vertical to go along with his 6’5″ frame is exactly why he was drafted in the first round. The Chiefs still remain a run first team at least while Thomas Jones is still in town so don’t get overly excited. Matt Cassel isn’t a slouch at quarterback so Baldwin should be getting some catchable balls but the question remains- is Baldwin the next James Hardy or is he a souped up version of Plaxico Burress? In dynasty leagues I’m taking the obvious guys along with Greg Little and Leonard Hankerson (needs a QB) before I’m taking Baldwin.

Projection: Baldwin is barely relevant in fantasy leagues this year. Expect 40 receptions, 480 yards and a few scores.

Draft Impact- Mark Ingram

The Saints’ selection of Mark Ingram with the 28th pick of the 2011 NFL Draft was certainly a curveball in the fantasy world.

Analysis: As talented as Pierre Thomas is he hasn’t carried the rock 150 times in a season, ever. He’s a solid option in PPR leagues but he also hasn’t played a full sixteen games in a season either. Enter rookie Chris Ivory last year and you have a solid 225 pound goal line back who on 137 carries averaged 5.2 yards per carry. However, there are two big question marks with Ivory. How well will he recover from surgery to repair his Lisfranc injury and can he get his fumble issues under control (4 fumbles, 2 lost, 137 carries)? We all know Mark Ingram has protected the ball better than anyone in college football in recent memory and his hands are solid for third down passing situations. The questions with Ingram will be how many touches will he be on the end of and where should he go in fantasy drafts? Like many rookies he will go way before he should in fantasy drafts, but on the positive side he should get 160-180 carries and maintain value in PPR leagues.

Projection: He’s not quite a RB3 yet but he should be good for 750 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and seven scores. His upside will be when Thomas gets injured, so he’s a great back for your bench.

Draft Impact- Julio Jones

When the Falcons took Julio Jones with the sixth pick of the 2011 NFL draft it changed the fantasy landscape dramatically.

Analysis: With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez already on board it seems unlikely Jones can put up WR2 numbers or WR3 numbers for that matter. White was targeted a staggering 179 times last year and Gonzo 111 times. I don’t see Jones coming in as a rookie and taking away many targets from those studs but he should bump Michael Jenkins out of the number two receiving role by the start of the season. Jenkins is pretty much a 50 reception, 600 yard type of fantasy receiver and Jones will be able to put up slightly better numbers his rookie year while stretching the defense like Jenkins never could (career 12.7 yards/rec). Jones does have a history of getting banged up far too much for my liking but he has an even bigger reputation as a tough a guy. The impact Jones will have on Matt Ryan cannot be underestimated. He takes Ryan from a stream starter in the Eli, Flacco, Freeman tier to the tenth best fantasy quarterback. Jones isn’t magically going put up a 1,000 yard season and make Ryan a fantasy stud but he will contribute to the overall success of their squad.

Projection: While I’m still taking AJ Green every day of the week over Jones in dynasty/keeper leagues, Jones has the highest ceiling of any rookie wide out this year. Expect 55 receptions, 700 receiving yards and six touchdowns, not quite WR3 numbers. He’ll be long gone in the draft before you can get him at value this year.