Player News – Page 122 – FantasySP Blog

The Jose Bautista Dilemma

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman shocked Major League Baseball (and fantasy baseball) by unleashing a majors-best 54 home runs last season, seemingly out of nowhere. How “out of nowhere?”

From 2004-2009: 1754 at-bats, 59 home runs, 211 RBI’s, .729 OPS, 14% home run rate, .3 Wins Above Replacement

2010 season stats: 569 at-bats, 54 home runs, 124 RBI’s, .995 OPS, 36% home run rate, 5.6 Wins Above Replacement

Analysis: Bautista has “one-year wonder” written all over him, at least for that kind of production. Why is that? His home run rate (% of hits that were home runs) was astronomical, even compared to the best power hitter today, Albert Pujols (whose career home run rate is 21.5%). Bautista’s BABIP was an abysmal .233.

The only encouraging stat in terms of continued production from 2010 was his on-base percentage, which was .378. After a terrible April, his K/BB ratio was almost exactly 1:1. Teams will have to respect his patience and power, and unless Aaron Hill and Adam Lind rediscover their stroke, teams will pitch around Bautista. Expect an increase in his stolen bases because of this.

Strategy: There certainly is a place for Bautista, but it’s not in the 4th round where he’s currently drafted in most leagues. Even if his production drops off significantly, he can still hit 30 home runs and drive in 90-100, which are great numbers for a 3rd baseman. He’s currently the 36th player drafted in Yahoo! drafts, ahead of players like Ian Kinsler, CC Sabathia, and Jon Lester, all of which provide more value than Bautista. If he can be had in the late 5th round or later, he’s worth drafting, but not in the 3rd or 4th round.

Prediction: .258 / 33 home runs / 103 RBI’s / 99 runs / 15 steals.

Jeff Green As A Celtic

Just five games in to his stint with the Celtics, Jeff Green has been a fantasy disappointment.

Analysis: Jeff Green has played five games now with Boston and has yet to tally an assist, it’s mind boggling. Not that he was much help in the assist department in Oklahoma City but anything helps. Green’s minutes are down but he’s still getting over twenty minutes a game. He’s averaging a miserable ten points per game as a Celtic, down about five points from his season average. Green’s rebounds are extremely low as well. He’s averaging just 1.6 boards per game while his season average sits at 5.2 boards per game. His three pointers made are down one from his season average. These numbers don’t come as a huge surprise but slightly shocking nonetheless. To put in directly, Jeff Green has become an average fantasy forward. There really is only one positive in his move to Boston- his field goal percentage is over fifty-five percent in his five games as a Celtic but it means little when he’s not taking many shots.

Projection: Jeff Green isn’t at the point where you just drop him. He’s on an aging team and some more minutes down the stretch may be in order. Patience is key in this situation, you don’t want to drop Green only for him to land on a rival fantasy squad to kill you in the last few weeks of the season. Green won’t produce like he did in Oklahoma City but he’s not this bad either.

LeBron James is Terrible!

While my title might be the overstatement of the century, it emphasizes a very real issue: LeBron James is having a far worse fantasy season than his previous few.

Analysis: First of all, we all knew that a slight dip in points was going to result from the whole Taking My Talents… debacle, but nobody predicted James to not produce as well in other categories. Sports writers’ such as Bill Simmons thought he might even approach triple double status for the season. This has not been the case. LeBron is shooting a slightly worse FG%, a slightly worse FT%, and averaging 3 less points a game. With Dwayne Wade as his co-superstar and Chris Bosh as another star, I really thought that LeBron’s percentages would have gone up significantly, certainly not down. He should be getting easier looks resulting in higher percentages but this hasn’t been the case. More importantly are LeBron’s drop-off in assists, blocks, and steals. He is averaging 1.5 less assists, .4 blocks less, and a .1 decrease in steals. With LeBron finally having some decent help, I expected him to focus more on piling up his assist and block stats, but this has not happened.

Projection: For anybody else LeBron’s stats would look absolutely gorgeous, but coming after his MVP season they look pedestrian. Expect more of the same from LeBron as Miami struggles to find itself.

Al Montoya Is A Top 20 Netminder

In just eight games started former top ten pick Al Montoya has amassed some staggering numbers.

Analysis: A sub 2.00 goals against average will grab anyones attention but doing it on the Islanders is a different kind of animal and that is exactly what Montoya is doing. Montoya has a sub 2 goals against average with a save percentage north of .93 with 5 wins in just 8 starts. He really is one of the most athletic goalies in the game today and it’s ashame it took him so long in the AHL to hone his talents. Montoya will be getting the majority of the starts as the season winds down and his availability in most leagues leaves many with decisions to make at goaltender. At this point Montoya projects better than James Reimer and Craig Anderson going forward but lags slightly behind Cam Ward.

Projection: Al Montoya will win more than half of his starts the rest of the year. His GAA should bump up a bit into the 2.4 range and his save percentage should fall near 92%. Al Montoya will be a top 20 netminder the rest of the season and he can give your secondary goaltending numbers a real boost.

Ray Allen and His Beautiful Percentages

Ray Ray is aging like a fine bordeaux, he truly is getting better with age.

Analysis: This season Ray passed Reggie Miller as the NBA’s all time leader in three pointers made, but that is just the tip of the iceberg for him. Ray is putting up career percentages with his stellar shooting this season. For a shooting guard who is a career 45% Field Goal shooter his over 50% this season is a revelation. Even more spectacular has been his increased 3 point percentage at 47%, also a career high. In fact he is shooting 3s at a 4% better rate than his best season. What this means for fantasy stats is a bunch more made threes than last season, exactly a 1/2 3 more this season compared to last. These increased percentages alone make Ray a solid producer, but when you examine his other stats he is even more impressive. He’s averaging more boards, assists, points, and steals than last season. The increases in those categories aren’t huge but when you put in it perspective it is pretty significant. Not many expected a 35 year old shooting guard to actually improve upon his previous season, but that is exactly what happened this season. Ray Allen is one dangerous shooter, arguably the best in the game.

Projection: As the Boston Celtics secure their position at the top of the East expect to see a lot less of Ray. Coach Doc Rivers will save his key players for the playoffs, thus you should expect to see a noticeable drop off in Ray’s production due to declining minutes. What he’s done this season is still something to take note of. A historic year for Ray Allen.