Player News – Page 123 – FantasySP Blog

Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez is Underrated

Carlos Gonzalez, a consensus 1st-round pick is underrated? Absolutely.

In Yahoo! standard drafts, his Average Draft Position (ADP) is 8.7. Over at MockDraftCentral his ADP is 6.8. However, a case will be made to draft him 4th overall.

The top three players in almost every fantasy draft will be Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera, and probably in that order. They will be followed by Votto, Longoria, and Tulowitzki in some order. But Gonzalez offers a unique fantasy package that should go #4 in your draft. There are many viable fantasy options in the outfield, but Gonzalez offers true 5-category potential, more than any other player.

Analysis: Forget the Coors’ Field Factor. Gonzalez was far better at Coors Field (by a whopping 386 points in OPS), but the more impressive (and park-neutral) split is when he it 3rd in the lineup vs. leadoff.

Batting leadoff (44 games): .290, .785 OPS, 8 home runs, 22 RBI’s – 90 total bases
Batting third ( 90 games) : .358, 1.067 OPS, 25 home runs, 80 RBI’s – 241 total bases

To put that in perspective, Gonzalez has more total bases in 90 games batting third than Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, or Scott Rolen had for their entire seasons. And remember, that .358 batting average is park-neutral and includes data from both home and away games, not just at Coors Field. Over a full season, Gonzalez could put up numbers that rival Larry Walker’s epic 1997 season. Draft him 4th (or even 3rd if you don’t have a “fifth” of confidence in Miguel Cabrera)

Projection: .345 / 44 home runs / 130 RBI’s / 110 runs / 28 steals – and a #1 ranking going into next season.

James Harden Is Producing

Still available in fifty percent of fantasy leagues, Oklahoma City shooting guard James Harden is producing in five fantasy categories.

Analysis: Over Harden’s last five games his fantasy line looks like this- 18.6 PPG, 1.4 3PM, 91 FT%, 1.4 SPG with a field goal percentage of 48%. His minutes are up above the thirty minute mark, up about five minutes from his season average. It is becoming more and more apparent that with the departure of Jeff Green to Boston, James Harden is the Thunder’s third option on offense. Over the last two weeks in standard fantasy basketball leagues Harden has been a top 20 player and the fact that he is still available in about half of leagues is just ridiculous.

Projection: Don’t expect Harden’s minutes to drop below thirty a game from here on out due to the importance of the Thunder’s playoff push in the western conference. What you can expect is about 15 PPG, more than a steal and a three made per game with solid free throw and field goal percentages. Pick him up now.

Monta Ellis Does a Little More Than Just Score

Golden State guard Monta Ellis is a scoring machine, but he consistently contributes in enough other categories to make him a valuable option.

Analysis: Monta is putting up fantastic scoring numbers once again this season, averaging almost 25 points a game. His FG% isn’t as bad as you might think either. Currently at 45% which is not that terrible for such a high volume shooter. On top of his excellent scoring numbers Monta actually carries his own weight in a number of other categories. He hits a respectable 1.6 3s per game, averages over 5 assists per game, and picks up a few boards here and there. The real cherry on top is his steals, which are currently at 2.2 per game this season. His FG% and FT% could be a bit better but on the whole Monta is a fantasy beast. Four times this season Monta has broken the 40 point threshold, and I expect him to get there a few more times yet. Monta’s best month was December when he averaged 27 points a game. He won’t average that for another month, but you can expect his scoring to not slip much below 25 points a game.

Projection: Even if Monta is having an off shooting night he will still score. With his ability to get to the rim and finish, he doesn’t need to be on fire to put up the points. Monta scores and steals extremely well and he’s not going to lose that touch anytime soon. Ellis will continue to do what he’s doing, but don’t expect major improvements in any categories.

Hamilton Prefers Center Field – Stats Say Otherwise

Josh Hamilton recently said he’d prefer to play center field over left field. His reason is music to baseball purists’ ears:

“”I love to play defense more than anything. I love taking away from other people — not in a bad-guy sense, just having fun. Center field gives you more opportunities to do that.” – Josh Hamilton

Hamilton is an excellent center fielder. He’s robbed many players of extra-base hits and home runs. He’s thrown out runners on base, and keeps some runners from even trying to take that extra base. However he’s hurt himself crashing into walls the last two seasons, costing him (and fantasy owners) 102 games over the last two season. Despite an MVP-performance, missing the entire month of September was critical for many fantasy owners on the brink of championships.

Moving to left field from center will help keep Hamilton healthy, and focus more on hitting. Over his four-year pro career, Hamilton has hit much better as a left fielder than a center fielder (park factors not included).

Left Field (97 games): .369 BA and 1.103 OPS

Center Field (270 games): .287 BA and .847 OPS

His home run and RBI numbers are substantially better playing left field as well (extrapolated over 162 games)

Left Field: 45 home runs and 131 RBI’s,

Center Field: 28 home runs and 99 RBI’s

As a fantasy owner, which position would you prefer Hamilton to play?

Who knows why Hamilton hits better playing left? Left field is less physically demanding than center, but like Charlie Sheen, Josh Hamilton has one speed, “Go.”

“Ham-bone” won’t sneak up on anyone this season as he’s the 4th outfielder drafted on average, and is a steal in the mid-to-late second round. He won’t play 162 games. He probably won’t get to 150 games. But playing left for 135 games would produce the following line:

Projection: .340 BA / 37 home runs / 120 RBI’s / 102 runs / 8 steals.

What To Do With Valtteri Filppula

After missing eight games with a knee injury Detroit center Valtteri Filppula has now played in five consecutive unimpressive games.

Analysis: Filppula isn’t a slouch now, he does have 32 points in 55 games but he has been shaky as of late. Filppula only has one goal and zero assists since returning from injury but his minutes are relatively the same. It all comes down to team need on whether to pick up or cut the 26 year old Finn. Filppula is solid in goals, assists, plus/minus and shots, however, he doesn’t get the power play points, ice time or penalty minutes he could get somewhere other than Detroit. If he remains on your squad you have to at the very least give him a few more games to rack up some points or completely falter. If he’s not on your squad he is available in forty to forty-five percent of fantasy hockey leagues and he is under the radar so you have some time to decide.

Projection: No matter what, Filppula’s plus/minus will be solid and that is carrying his value at this point since his return from knee injury. The goals and assists should come if you can be patient, however, he will not give you much in the power play point department nor will he accumulate many penalty minutes. Expect 8-10 points the rest of the season with a plus one rating and just under two shots per game.