Player News – Page 126 – FantasySP Blog

Dexter Fowler Is All About Splits

Dexter Fowler will hit leadoff or 2nd for Colorado in 2011; as a prototypical speed guy in Colorado he probably will not be cheap enough at auction for his risk and reward to be in sync. Should we pursue him anyway?

Analysis: The book on Dexter Fowler is blazing speed, can hit LHP, but not any of the numerous RHPs, stole bases like crazy in the minors, but got caught way too often in The Show. A look at his splits shows his problems are only 2: (a) hitting/stealing versus RHP and (b) hitting outside of Mile High Stadium. His full season stats show he improved against RHP, hitting .260 from both sides of the plate. More good news is he hit .280 against all pitchers in the 2nd half following .233 in the 1st half. Even more encouraging was his 2nd half .304/.341/.494 against RHP. In 2010 he was an 80% base stealer (excellent) against LHP and had a 45% success rate vs. RHP. Typically it’s easier to steal against RHP, as a LHP is looking directly at first base when pitching from the stretch and thus shortens the base runner’s lead and often delays his first step. We assume this is correctable by Dexter with good coaching. After all he did steal 43 bases in 99 games in a single minor league season (Class A ball). So far so good for the future, yet when we look at his home/road splits from 2010 we catch our breath: .313/.401/.531 home v. .201/.297/.298 road. While he is improving and has the tools for a high ceiling, Dexter has a long way to go to be just an average MLB hitter in those 81 travel games in 2011. We think he will be better in 2011, but he won’t be a true breakout hitter. He will make an even bigger jump in value after another season of MLB experience. Don’t pay for 2012 in 2011.

Projection: 550 PA, 7 HR, 70 R, 40 RBI, 22 SB, .382 BA, .360 OBP

Kevin Love is Having a Breakout Fantasy Season

Kevin Love has been absolutely fantastic this season, defying any and all expectations.

Analysis: The Minnesota Timberwolves are 15-47, an absolutely horrible number, but who cares because we’re playing fantasy sports, where wins don’t matter and good numbers on a bad team are actually a good thing. Kevin Love is having a historically great season and it seems to be a sign of things to come. He could be the first players since Moses Malone to average over 15 boards and 20 points a game. He has a nose for the boards and this benefits a lot more than his rebounding numbers. Despite playing on a Minnesota team with lousy point guards Love is still averaging over 20 points a game this season. This is in great part due to his rebounding ability. If Johnny Flynn can’t find Love down low, Love can still grab the offensive board and score some points with a put back. Imagine if he ever landed with an elite point guard, he would be fantasy gold at that point. If Love and Nash ever join forces that would be one potent combination. Love does a few things really well: he scores, he boards, and shoots the three ball efficiently and this has made him a hot topic among other players. Even Lebron James discussed how sad it was to see such a great player in Kevin Love, wasting away on a bad team. He stated this with the obvious implication that he would love Love to take his talents to South Beach.

Projection: If you need what Kevin Love is offering (boards, points, and made 3s) then don’t hesitate to make a trade for him, because he’s not slowing down anytime soon. Just be wary that despite being a power forward Love only shoots 47% from the field, and averages less than half a block a game. His other stats more than make up for the lack of blocking, but it is something to be mindful of before making a move for Love.

Time To Drop Niclas Bergfors

Niclas Bergfors is still owned in about half of all fantasy hockey leagues across the nation and is on a nine game scoreless streak.

Analysis: His trade to the Panthers did just one thing, it bumped his ice time up quite a bit. Bergfors received 17 minutes of ice time in his first game with the Panthers after not getting more than 14 minutes of ice time his previous ten games with Atlanta. He is a very talented right winger but he just hasn’t found a home yet and Florida won’t do much to cultivate his talents. In deeper leagues you can get away with Bergfors because he will get more ice time in Florida, he does shoot a decent amount and he does get power play minutes that eventually will translate into power play points. Yet in non keeper standard leagues there is no reason to hitch your wagon to a guy as cold and unproductive as Bergfors.

Projection: He has the talent and scoring ability to put up some solid points in the remaining games on the Panthers schedule but the risk is not worth the reward. Go ahead and pick up a right winger that’s actually producing and dump the 23 year old Swede. Expect 4 goals and 6 assists with over 16 minutes of ice time per game from here on out.

Invest In Josh Johnson In 2011

Josh Johnson was a stud in 2010. In fantasy where starting pitchers can hurt your team severely in so many categories, big bucks should only be spent on the expectation of a safe, awesome return on your investment. Was Josh Johnson simply lucky in 2010? We usually look closely at 2 Base Performance Indicators (BPI) to see if we should expect a material correction the following season, namely HR allowed and Batting Average on balls in play. Josh’s .34 HR/9 was superb and likely to regress, so the question is how much can we expect? Here are the Park Factors in the NL East (LHB/RHB):

Marlins: 99/95
NYM: 90/94
Nats: 94/100
Phillies: 116/120

100 = League Average. Obviously the NL East is a good division to be a starting pitcher in HR wise, except those Phillies. Josh has had 11 starts vs. the Phillies in 6 seasons, going 5-3, 3.34 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, .316 OB, .364 Slug, and 5 HR. Only that inflated WHIP is of any concern.

In 2010 Josh’s BAbip was .297 versus a League average of .290, the opposite of what you’d expect by a lucky pitcher. Let’s take a quick look at some other 2010 ratios that show what made Johnson superb. These are shown Johnson/League Average: 25/16.7 K%, 6.9/8.0 BB%, 18.3/11.5 PAK%, 45.7/43.2 GB%, 79.5/71 LOB%, and 12.1/7.8 Swinging Strikes%.

In 2011 Josh will give up a few more homers and more men left on base will score, yet Johnson will continue to be worthy of your investment as an Ace. Just don’t pay for the full value of his 2010 stats in 2011.

Projection: 16-6, 203 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 201 K.

Josh Beckett: How Good Will He Be in 2011?

Issue: In 2010 Josh Beckett’s performance was Good, Bad, and Ugly. Which ones will show up in 2011?

Facts: Good, Bad, Ugly

GOOD

There were items that stand out below his ugly surface stats in 2010. Josh’s strikeout rate remains strong at better than 8K/9. His line drive rate ticked down from 20% to 19%. Hitters’ slugging and OPS were below the league averages. His .341 Batting Average on balls in play versus the .298 league average means he was unlucky as well. Injuries left the Bosox defense in shambles in 2010, especially in the outfield and at shortstop. Everyone appears healthy now, plus the addition of Adrian Gonzalez, so the defense behind Josh will be much improved in 2011.

BAD

His 3 year trend in BB% is 4.7 – 6.2 – 7.87. Beckett spent 65 days on the DL with lower back strain between May and July. His fly ball rate increased from 31.7% to 35.3%. His fastball slowed just a bit, but is still good. His average fastball speed for the last 4 seasons is 93.5, 94.3, 94.3, 94.6.

UGLY

He lost confidence in his heater last season. His fastball use the last 4 season it is 55.2%, 66.9%, 63.1%, and 69.0%. He also had less horizontal movement on most of his pitches. He went from pounding the strike zone high and away to working mostly low and outside, but with less movement away from or into the batter.

Career Highest – BA Against (.292), while the league average was .264. ERA was 5.78.

Career Lowest – First pitch strikes (62%); Innings Pitched 127.2.

He has injured 12 different body parts over his career, including Hand (8), Low Back (5), Elbow (2), Trunk (2), and once each – Fingers, Head, Upper Back, Shoulder, Neck, Groin, Foot, and General Medical.

Analysis: Injuries have most likely caused Beckett’s Jekyll and Hyde performances every other season. All pitchers are healthy…until not. How good will Beckett be considering how bad he was in 2010? Gazing into this season 4 things out stick in our mind: (A) Beckett’s bulldog determination; (B) he has displayed some strong Base Performance Indicators even when his surface stats have been ugly; (C) the abrupt change in the frequency of use and movement of his fastball; and (D) those injuries every other season.

If we condense Josh Beckett’s career into a single season’s worth of stats we would get a 162 Game Score season of 15-10, 3.96 ERA, 210 IP, 8.5K/9, 199K, 65BB, 3.07 K/BB, and 1.244 WHIP. We feel strongly that Josh will do better than that, despite real injury risk. Depending on how many others in your auction feel the same way and the timing of his nomination, Beckett represents an opportunity to grab a starter for $14 or less with the likelihood of earning $20 to $25. This is how pennants are won in auction leagues. The risk is in line with the reward, so long as you don’t spend over $14, before any auction inflation.

Prediction: 19-6, 3.66 ERA, 212 IP, 8.4K/9, 201K, 55BB, 54BB, 3.62 K/BB, and 1.18 WHIP.

{6-4-3 Assists to TexasLeaguers and Baseball-Reference.}