Player News – Page 127 – FantasySP Blog

A.J. Burnett Yankee Saviour?

Issue: The Yankees are desperate for rotation help in 2011, while your fantasy team needs a starting pitching bargain, so you can spend more on big stick hitters. Is A.J. Burnett the guy?

Facts: After 10 seasons in The Show A.J. has won 10 games more than he has lost (110-100). 2010 was easily his worst season when he went 10-15, 5.26 ERA, and 1.511 WHIP. Burnett pitched through low back soreness in August, left hand laceration in July, and foot soreness in June, so nothing serious and no time on the DL in 2010. Maybe his splits will show us something. He gave up 15 HR on the road and only 10 at home, the opposite of what you’d expect. His Batting Average on balls in play was .326 at home and .320 on the road. Both say he was unlucky. Splitting the season in half indicates some real differences. His first half/second half splits are .275/.295 BA, 4.75/5.95 ERA, .357/.378 OBP, .440/,480 SLUG, and .310/.341 BAbip. Lastly, while his line drive and strikeout ratios were better than the league average, all these were worse: HR%, BB%, XBH%, GO/AO, and HR/FB.

Analysis: At age 34, 3 years older than his former teammate Josh Beckett, Burnett will improve in 2010, but not nearly enough to make him a valuable asset for either the NYY or your Roto team.

Projection: 10 W, 4.69 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 138K, 165 IP.

The Enigmatic Andrea Bargnani

With Chris Bosh out of TO, the Raptors expected/needed Andrea Bargnani to step up his game significantly.

Analysis: Andrea has increased productivity in a few areas, but has overwhelmingly been a disappointment. His team is losing and his stats have declined in a few categories that kill any benefit that his increased scoring brings. For example Andrea is averaging half the blocks he produced last season (down from 1.4 to .7 this season), and his FG% is down to 45% too. I’ve actually watched a number of Raptors games this season and I think they are becoming more comfortable with one another. While it is blatantly obvious by now that Andrea can’t rebound to save his life, I think as he grows in comfort with these new look Raptors he will continue to improve. He is a good player on a terrible team and his stats will be noticeably inflated because of this. Not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy owners of Andrea.

Projection: Andrea will improve slightly over the remainder of the season and is a good fantasy option for 3s, points, and FT%. For a former number 1 pick it is fair to have expected more from him, but he provides enough big scoring games to keep fantasy owners, at the very least, satisfied. He’s scored 30+ points seven times this season, even putting up 41 points versus the Knicks.

Joe Nathan Returns to Action

Minnesota’s four time All-Star returned to the hill yesterday, his first outing in almost a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March.

Analysis: Although both Jon Rauch and Matt Capps filled in admirably this past season, the Twins still missed their elite closer. Nathan, who hasn’t had an ERA over 2.10 since 2005, has consistently ranked among the best in the game since taking over the fireman role seven years ago. Now 36 years old, the big righty out of Stony Brook University is looking forward to pitching the ninth for the first time at Target Field. Nathan threw 20 pitches in a scoreless inning against Boston on Tuesday, showcasing each pitch in his arsenal. His velocity was a tick below 90 mph and he felt a little soreness this morning. It is early March and this is all to be expected. The good news is that Nathan was able to make his pitches, and showed no real adverse effects.

Projection: Tommy John surgery is no longer the career death sentence it once was. As a matter of fact, many pitchers come back from it stronger than ever nowadays. This is good news for the Twins and Fantasy owners, as Nathan should prove to once again be a Top 5 closer. Owners may shy away from taking Nathan early because of a perceived risk, and this could allow you to scoop him up when nobody is looking. Aside from the great Rivera in the Bronx and the man with the big beard in San Francisco, no
stopper offers as much potential when it comes to saves and strikeouts as Nathan does. He’ll get plenty of opportunities, and 40+ saves to go along with 80+ strikeouts would not surprise me in the least.

Flyers Goalies Aren’t Getting It Done

Sergei Bobrovsky and Brian Boucher seem to be doing everything in their power to let Tampa, Boston and Pittsburgh back into the race for the number one seed in the east with their poor play as of late.

Analysis: Brian Boucher has allowed nine goals over his last three games including a four goal meltdown against the eastern conference’s worst Ottawa Senators. Boucher has played like the perennial backup that he is, showing little flashes of brilliance followed by long stretches of pedestrian netminding. Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been much better either. Bobrovsky has allowed at least three goals in his last three games with just one win. Bobrovsky does have the potential to be a great goalie but both of these guys are being exposed right now playing on a Flyers team that just hasn’t been as tidy as they have earlier in the year. You should stick with Bobrovsky at least another week and see if he can’t rekindle some of that early season magic.

Projection: This isn ‘t a new situation for the Flyers having two goalies they aren’t in love with going into the playoffs but Bobrovsky is a different breed. He’s going to be special one day and has the ability to take over games unlike Boucher. If Bobrovsky can get the majority of the starts you can expect about nine wins with a 2.6 GAA the rest of the season, solid secondary fantasy goaltender numbers.

There is Very Little Hope Left for Gilbert Arenas

Gilbert Arenas used to be a perennial All-Star and one of the NBA’s best scorers, now he is having a hard time cracking Orlando’s rotation.

Analysis: I really thought a change of scenery would be good for Gilbert and he could at least be a passable fantasy option. After a horrible injury stretch the last few years and a minor incident with some guns, Gilbert has been what some might classify as an unpredictable fantasy option. He has still been okay in spurts, but injuries continue to derail any progress he makes. He is currently out with a strained knee, not very surprising. Coming off the bench for Orlando I thought Gilbert would get a chance to be an impact player, playing limited minutes. Providing a scoring punch, tossing out a few dimes, and knocking down a trey or two a game would have made Gilbert a worthwhile fantasy option, however that has not been the case, he’s averaging 8 points a game on 35% shooting and 26% shooting from downtown. With Gilbert approaching 30 years of age the cause for concern only increases further. In his past 3 seasons combined before this one Gilbert played in only 47 games. This is the single worst factor for fantasy players, because even if he could produce, which he doesn’t do very well anymore, he can’t stay on the floor.

Projection: Gilbert will never return to his old scoring ways that made him a fantasy darling. The only reason that picking up Gilbert is justifiable is if he’s on a hot streak. It feels like ages ago, but in back to back seasons Gilbert did average close to 30 points. If he catches fire pick him up off the waiver wire, but he is no longer deserving of a fantasy roster spot.