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ADP Watch- RBs Part 3

Trent Richardson has 14 carries this preseason for 34 yards. That is a 2.4 yards per carry average… that just doesn’t cut it.

Analysis: Richardson had 157 carries with the Colts last year and recorded a 2.9 yards per carry average. Among backs with at least 150 carries Richardson ranked last with just one run over twenty yards last season. That one carry for over twenty yards is tied for 68th among all NFL players last season. His lifetime yards per carry average is just  3.3 per.

Allow me to put this in perspective. “Non speedy/power back” Doak Walker Award winners do not have a great history in the NFL. Bam Morris had a career 3.9 yards per carry average. Ron Dayne checks in at 3.8 per, Cedric Benson had a career 3.8 yards per carry average. Obviously guys like Eddie George, Larry Johnson and Ricky Williams had more than just a power game and certainly had vision.

Currently, Richardson is the 21st to 28th back being taken in the 50-60 pick range. He doesn’t have much upside but it is hard to ignore the amount of touches he will be on the end of.

ADP Watch- WRs Part 4

Sammy Watkins lit college football up his freshman year but can he set the NFL ablaze in his rookie season?

Analysis: It appears that Watkins has put considerable weight on his frame since his freshman season at Clemson. He is still fast but the weight does make a difference… he is not the same burner he was a few years ago. Regardless, it is always hard to predict rookie wide outs but Watkins is especially difficult. EJ Manuel is not a consistent quarterback and Watkins is in a tough defensive division.

Currently, Watkins is the 30th to 33rd wide out being taken in the 78-81 pick range. You can get Marques Colston, Mike Wallace or Kendall Wright at this point in the draft or later. Colston has Brees and a pass happy offense. Wallace put up 930 yards last year on 142 targets without an offensive line. Kendall Wright caught 94 balls on 140 targets for over 1,000 yards in 2013. Watkins may turn out to be a fine player but his ceiling this year is what those other three wide outs are expected to produce.

ADP Watch- QBs Part 2

Philip Rivers finished 2013 as the 6th rated fantasy quarterback. He led the league in completion percentage and was 5th in passing yards despite being 19th in passing attempts… that is special. His 32 touchdowns were 4th best in the NFL last year.

Analysis: People forget how good Rivers was a few years ago. From 2008-2010 Rivers averaged 4,324 passing yards, 30.6 touchdowns and a 103.9 passer rating. After two off years with offensive line, ground game and turnover problems he posted  a great 2013 line of 4,478 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a 105.5 passer rating. Yeah, these numbers seem very similar to his “three year peak.” Philip Rivers is back.

Currently, Philip Rivers is the 14th quarterback being taken in drafts. He is going in the 105-110 pick range. Rivers is the steal of the year if he stays healthy. In contrast- Matt Ryan is the 8th quarterback being taken in the 70-90 pick range. Ryan has a questionable ground game, a left tackle out for the season and Julio Jones who is coming off a major injury.

Rivers is the better QB at this point in their careers and he also has a better ground game and offensive line.

ADP Watch- WRs Part 3

Jeremy Maclin is sitting out the second preseason game for the Eagles. Is it the knee or the hamstring he tweaked a few days ago? Regardless, Maclin was getting the best of Darrelle Revis in a joint practice with the Patriots at the time of the hamstring tweak.

Analysis: Currently, Jeremy Maclin is the 25th to 27th wide out being taken in the 60-80 pick range. He does have low end WR1 potential but his health is the obvious concern. People forget how good Maclin was/is. From 2010-2012 Maclin averaged 67 receptions, 893 receiving yards and 7.3 touchdowns with Vince Young, Kevin Kolb, rookie Nick Foles and Mike Vick at quarterback. Those numbers would have been about 20th best for fantasy wide outs last year.

Percy Harvin is being taken about 10-15 picks before Maclin. Harvin has never caught more than 6 touchdowns in a year… ever. Harvin has played an average of 8.6 games per season over the last three years. Cordarrelle Patterson is being taken 5-15 picks before Maclin. Patterson only amassed 469 yards and 4 touchdowns last year. Patterson also has one of the worst quarterback situations in football. Considering the upside and health issues Jeremy Maclin has a reasonable ADP unlike Harvin and Patterson.

ADP Watch- Defenses

There is little upside when drafting a defense in the top 120. Last year Houston was the 2nd to 4th defense taken in drafts and they finished 28th in fantasy points. Chicago was the 3rd to 5th defense taken last year and they finished 27th. Denver was taken 5th to 7th last year and finished 13th.

Analysis: The thing these three defenses have in common was that their ADP last year was 120 or less. It just isn’t worth taking a defense that early. One injury or one suspension and the pick can quickly become a pile of hot garbage. Keep in mind that Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders and Alshon Jeffery had an ADP between 112 and 118 last year.

One of the most interesting defenses this year is the Bucs. The Bucs had the 10th best fantasy defense last year with little field position support due to their awful offense and the injury of Doug Martin. Lovie Smith is a good coach and Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are elite at their positions. They have brought in playmakers Alterraun Verner(Ten) and Michael Johnson(Cin). The Bucs D/ST is the 13th to 17th defense being taken in the 146-164 pick range.