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Buying Low- Alcides Escobar

Alcides Escobar is falling out of favor in many leagues but he still has some solid fantasy value.

Analysis: Even though Alcides Escobar hit .254 last year, he did so with a very low BABIP of .285. This year his average is up to .288 where it should be and he still gets no love. Escobar stole twenty-six bases last year and is on pace for nearly thirty this year. He may not be a flashy offensive player but he puts up solid numbers for a shortstop.

Alcides Escobar is available in about half of fantasy leagues across the country and that number should maintain until fantasy owners catch on that his batting average is for real. He may not have hit for a high average the past two seasons in the bigs but he is a solid contact hitter. When his BABIP is respectable like it was in 2009 and his minor league career, he will hit for an average in the .280 range. He is currently the fifteenth ranked shortstop on ESPN’s player rater, ahead of guys like Jimmy Rollins, Alexei Ramirez and Jhonny Peralta. You could do a lot worse than Escobar who offers speed, a solid batting average and some RBI potential hitting deep in an underrated Royals batting order.

Under The Radar- Liriano

Francisco Liriano has been one inconsistent starter this year but he still has some significant fantasy value.

Analysis: Liriano allowed four or more earned runs in his first six starts of the year but since May 7th he has lowered his ERA by three runs. Liriano’s velocity is fine even though he should be throwing his slider a bit more. He is actually striking out more than one batter per inning but the real problem is his location. He’s walking nearly six batters per nine innings pitched and his HR/FB rate of 14% this year is four percent higher than his career average of 10%.

Liriano still has plenty left in the tank. In fact, his xFIP is just 4.29 compared to his current ERA of 6.45. It does not help that Minnesota does not score much but Liriano isn’t a 1-7 type of pitcher anyway. He’s available in over seventy percent of leagues and his value will be increasing in the near future. Liriano is a free agent next year so a trade deadline move would not be out of the question. Put Liriano on a contender with run support and you have a waiver wire steal.

Deep League Help- Aoki

Norichika Aoki is finally getting some valuable playing time in the Brewers outfield and he is as advertised.

Analysis: With Nyjer Morgan hitting just .233 on the year and only four extra base hits to his credit, Norichika Aoki has played very well in center and right field for the Brew Crew. Aoki actually has seven more extra base hits and five more RBI than Morgan in nineteen less at-bats. Aoki is a former three time Central League batting champ in the NPB, so his .289 batting average thus far should come as no surprise. His tools do resemble Ichiro’s a bit but he does not run as much as Ichiro.

Aoki is available in ninety-nine percent of leagues and if you are in a deeper league an outfielder with his upside can be hard to come by. It still may take a few more months before Aoki is fully acclimated to MLB pitching but you have to like his small sample size thus far. Expect a batting average in the .280-.300 range, five more home runs and ten more stolen bases if he continues to get consistent playing time.

Selling High- Paul Konerko

Paul Konerko is leading the American League in batting average and is second in slugging percentage but the career .284 hitter will fall back down to earth soon.

Analysis: Konerko’s eleven home runs is not an inflated number. His HR/FB rate is just up a bit this year(19.3%) from his career average(16.9%). In fact, Konerko has averaged 34 home runs over the past two seasons, so the thirty-six year old’s power is not in question. The red flag here is the .406 BABIP which is a shocking .117 points above his career average. Konerko has not had a BABIP over .330 in his career so we cannot count on his .406 mark to hold up much longer. His strike outs are up a bit this year and his walk rate is down from his 2011 numbers, just another thing to keep an eye on.

Konerko is a solid power bat who is not slowing down despite his age. His power is stable and he is one durable guy but he will be lucky to finish with a batting average over .310 this year. If you are one of those owners who are constantly trying to improve your team then you have to think about selling the veteran especially when considering the amount of injuries to power bats that are out there at the moment. Konerko is good, just not this good.

Selling High- Melky Cabrera

Melky Cabrera is leading the National League in hitting with a .374 batting average but it will not last for long.

Analysis: Melky Cabrera’s .415 BABIP is the fourth highest in all of baseball and is .108 points above his career average. Thus, he’s due for a big drop off. Cabrera’s walk and strikeout rates this year are virtually identical to his career averages so he isn’t improving in those areas. He is coming off of a career year which saw him hit .305 with 18 HR, 102 R and 87 RBI for the Royals. However, 2011 was a bit inflated as well. His BABIP was still .25 points above his career average and it was his only season as a professional that he has hit over .280. Cabrera’s power is peaking, I’ll give you that but he isn’t a .310-.320 type of hitter. He does just about all of his damage off of fastballs and he’s still swinging at too many balls outside of the strike zone(32.3%).

The Melk Man’s fantasy value will not get any higher and now is the perfect time to capitalize on those owners who just cannot resist the flavor of the week. Expect a .290 batting average going forward to go along with eight to ten more home runs and ten steals.