Buying- Jose Quintana

Jose Quintana pitched another great game in his last start against the Seattle Mariners. Quintana pitched 7.2 innings, struck out 10, gave up 4 hits and did not allow a run.

Analysis: Jose Quintana is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now. He has allowed just 3 earned runs over his last four starts. In that four game span he has struck out 31 batters to just 26 hits/walks. Over the last month of the season he is the 33rd best fantasy starter. He also ranks as the 47th best starter this season.

These rankings should not come as a surprise considering Quintana has been pitching very well since April. He currently has a 3.20 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP and 100 strikeouts. He ranks 35th among starters in ERA and 26th in strikeouts. Keep in mind that the twenty-five year old Quintana posted a 3.51 ERA last year with a 1.22 WHIP and 164 strikeouts.

At the moment Jose Quintana is available in 25-70% of fantasy leagues. His next start should be in Boston on Thursday.

Sticking With Chavez

Jesse Chavez has allowed 9 earned runs over his last two starts. Many fantasy owners are bailing on the thirty year old but now is not the time.

Analysis: Jesse Chavez is the 56th best fantasy starter this season despite the two bad starts recently. He’s ahead of guys like Cole Hamels, James Shields, Gerrit Cole and Hiroki Kuroda. Chavez has a 3.23 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP and an 8.04 K/9 rate this season. He ranks 34th in ERA among major league starters, 59th in BB/9, 58th in WHIP, 31st in K/9 and 33rd in strikeouts. It is fair to say he has been producing and has been quite consistent this season.

It is understandable that many fantasy owners are dropping Chavez. His last two starts have not gone well but there aren’t many options of his caliber available on the wire. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have both been on fire lately but aside from them there are a lot of risk/reward guys left on the wire.

Jesse Chavez is available in 15-30% of fantasy leagues. His next start is July 7th at home against the Giants.

Selling High- Pearce

Steve Pearce is having a career year for the Baltimore Orioles but is he legit?

Analysis: Through 47 games this season Peace has 10 home runs, 27 runs batted in and is hitting .327. The thirty-one year old Pearce has already set his career high in home runs this year but do not expect him to sustain this kind of pace.

Pearce’s BABIP is 72 points above his career mark this season which makes sense considering his career mark in batting average is just .253(.327 BA this season/74 point difference). His .368 BABIP is good for 18th in baseball this season among batters with at least 150 plate appearances. He’s also sporting an insane HR/FB rate of 18.9%(9.0% for career) which is 21st in baseball. All signs point to a sudden and significant decline sooner than later.

Steve Pearce is available in 30-50% of fantasy leagues. He does have multiple position eligibility but he simply is not a .280 plus hitter nor is he a guy that can be a reliable source of power going forward. A better bet on the wire would be someone like Curtis Granderson, Christian Yelich or Brandon Belt(who returns to action soon).

Under The Radar- Jones

James Jones is quietly having a solid season as the Seattle Mariners continue to push for a playoff berth at the midpoint in the season.

Analysis: James Jones is hitting .295 with 17 stolen bases and 33 runs in 56 games played. During the month of June he was the 9th best fantasy outfielder. Despite only playing in those 56 games he ranks 7th among outfielders in stolen bases and 13th in batting average.

At some point this season or next Jones’ power will start to appear. He is a toolsy, raw talent but the twenty-five year old will provide enough steals to offset the lack of power and RBI production for the time being. Jones does not walk much(4.4%) but he isn’t a high strikeout rate hacker either(16.5%). Among outfielders with at least 200 plate appearances he ranks in the top 30 in contact rate so we can expect the .350 BABIP and .325 OBP to be somewhat sustainable marks.

James Jones is available in 80% of fantasy leagues.

Wire Watch- Colon/Worley

Bartolo Colon allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings pitched in his last start against the Pirates. Prior to that bad start he had pitched seven consecutive games without allowing more than 3 earned runs. Vance Worley is now three starts into his 2014 campaign and he already has 2 wins with a 1.74 ERA.

Analysis: Bartolo Colon is the 42nd best fantasy starter this season. Over the last month of the season Colon has been the 12th best fantasy starter. He has a 3.88 ERA, 3.70 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP. His 1.16 WHIP is good for 19th best in baseball, his 5.27 K/BB rate is 7th and his walk rate is 3rd best in baseball. Colon is available in 20-40% of fantasy leagues.

Vance Worley is one of the most interesting pitchers on the wire right now. He does have a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP but his xFIP is a pedestrian 4.14. His 4.00 K/BB rate would be 21st in baseball but he only has 20.2 innings under his belt thus far. The twenty-six year old Worley has a career 3.92 ERA, 3.98 xFIP and a 7.1 K/9 rate. He is not a fantasy savior but he is certainly worthy of some attention over his next few starts. Worley is available in 85-95% of fantasy leagues.