NBA: Best in the West?

 

While the matchups in the Eastern Conference are set in stone, the Western Conference won’t be finalized until the regular season wraps up tomorrow (Wednesday) night.

Home court advantage is a big deal in the NBA playoffs and bigger to none than the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers are looking to three-peat, but are a year older and Thunder can be heard louder and louder in the distance. A year ago, on their way a second consecutive NBA title, Showtime was put to a test against Oklahoma City.

Here is what we do know, San Antonio is the top dog, and holds home court through the Western Conference playoffs. It’s not yet clear whom the Spurs will open up with, but it will be either Portland, Memphis or New Orleans. We also know that Denver will enter the post season as the fifth seed, with Dallas, Oklahoma City or even the Lakers their opening round opponent.

Despite being best in the west (record wise) the Spurs aren’t getting much post season respect. San Antonio is a three-headed monster, with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker all a year grayer. A Spurs win tonight in Los Angeles might even bump the Lakers down to fourth. Why is that significant? It would mean a potential 2nd round rematch should both win their opening round series. Probably not what San Antonio is wishing for, but certainly a possibility should they win tonight.

Oklahoma City is the opposite of San Antonio when it comes to hype. The Thunder are the sexy pick with young stars, led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Oklahoma City strengthened its only weakness, acquiring bruiser Kendrick Perkins from Boston in a trade deadline deal. Nobody wants to play the Thunder, at least not early on in the post season.

Denver has been the surprise of the west. Since the blockbuster Carmelo trade, the Nuggets have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Head Coach George Karl has gone as far to say its his best and most favorite team in his years in the Mile High City. While the Nuggets lost the star power in Anthony, they acquired incredible depth and substantial talent as well in the deal.

Dallas has high hopes and their is not a deeper team in the Association. Dirk Nowitzki is having a huge season and the Mavericks go ten deep on the bench. The loss of Caron Butler hurt, but the addition of Corey Brewer has helped off set that. Make no mistake, the difference in the Mavs this season, is the rebounding and physical defensive presence of Tyson Chandler.

Portland is the only other team in the west that may make some noise. The Blazers improved their lot with the trading deadline acquisition of mercurial forward Gerald Wallace. LeMarcus Aldridge and Wes Matthews should both receive consideration for most improved honors, while injuries have become synonymous with Brandon Roy and Greg Oden.

How important are these end of regular season games? I’ll give you my favorite answer, it depends. It didn’t matter for Boston as they were locked in to their slot in the East and rested the old boys in the loss to Washington on Monday night. Other teams have indicated that they will rest players, in hopes of a quick rest of bumps and bruises. Playoff matchups do matter and they will be impacted by these last few games, meaning they matter as well.

Furcal To DL With Broken Thumb

The Dodgers have placed shortstop Rafael Furcal on the 15 day disabled list with a broken left thumb. He may be on the 15 day disabled list now but I would expect him to be out two months with this kind of injury. The injury shouldn’t shock anyone, Furcal has only played in more than 100 games just one of his last three seasons.

Analysis: There’s a big injury risk when you draft Furcal and it didn’t take him long to get banged up this year. He’s still a solid top twelve option at shortstop when healthy but there are plenty of options on the wire. Asdrubal Cabrera is still not yet owned in all fantasy leagues and he is red hot. He isn’t a twenty home run hitter although he is mashing like one. Cabrera is perfect to pick up off the wire and package in a trade. The real choice is Yunel Escobar if he is still available. With Escobar you’re talking about a career .291 hitter in a great lineup and a player that hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Yunel Escobar should end up being a better fantasy shortstop than Furcal this year. The buy low option is Atlanta’s Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez has just one homer and two runs batted in this year but he’s hit over twenty homers twice in his career so you have to love that potential from the veteran shortstop.

What’s up with the Texas Rangers? Not their ERA.

The Texas Rangers and “offense” have been synonymous since the 1994 strike, producing five MVP seasons, three more than any other American League team. And through 10 games in 2011, that doesn’t seem to change. The Rangers lead the majors in home runs and slugging percentage and are top 8 in most other offensive categories.

With Alexei Ogando’s gem Monday (7 innings (on only 79 pitches!), 2 hits, 1 walk, zero runs, 4 strikeouts), the Rangers’ team ERA dropped below 2.50 and their WHIP is hovering just above 1.00. Ogando out-dueled Justin Verlander, who was good enough to win (complete game, 6 hits, 1 walk, 2 runs). Ogando’s story is a unique one, filled with a rule-5 wavier claim, human-trafficking scam, and a five-year ban from the US, all of which is wonderfully chronicled here.

Ogando was excellent as the right-handed setup bullpen arm last season, with a 1.30 ERA over 41.2 innings, and was forced into the rotation when Tommy Hunter injured himself. If Alexei keeps pitching like this, the Rangers will have an awesome predicament: too much pitching.

The Texas Rangers pitching staff currently lead all of Major League Baseball in ERA, hits allowed, batting average against, WHIP, have 8 quality starts (and are one out away from nine), and opposing OPS is 60 points lower than the next-best team.

It seems like every Rangers pitcher has an interesting story. C.J. Wilson is a converted reliever and known for his social media exploits. Colby Lewis spent a few seasons in Japan after flaming out with the Rangers and Tigers in the early part of the decade. Derek Holland was a 25th-round draft-and-follow player who showed up in A-ball with a 95 mph left handed fastball. Matt Harrison’s wife heckles umpires from the stands while other players’ wives talk about redecorating. And then there’s Ogando.

Alexei will not hold up over the entire season. He’s a converted outfielder with jerky mechanics. He’s best suited for the bullpen, where he was immensely successful last season. It’s also being reported that Ogando has fluid under a callous from a blister he developed during his last start. Obviously his pitching hand is not going to hold up over 150+ innings. If you took a flyer on him already, try to sell high. Otherwise, stay away.

Alexi Ogando Now 2-0

Texas right hander Alexi Ogando pitched seven innings of shutout ball today against the Tigers in his second start of the season.

Analysis: Alexi Ogando is now 2-0 for the season and has pitched 13 innings allowing zero earned runs, striking out eight batters while only walking three. Ogando is primarily a two pitch pitcher with a plus mid nineties fastball and a slider/slurve. He really does have command of the strike zone right now but you just cannot ignore that he is a two pitch starting pitcher in a ball park that is a hitter’s park with sloppy mechanics. The run support will be there for Ogando as the Rangers have a stellar lineup top to bottom. However, the smart play here is picking Ogando up off the wire and packaging him in a trade. Ogando will not have a higher fantasy value then right now and it’s time to act. At some point he’s going to have to get command of his changeup to put up some consistent fantasy numbers and right now I don’t believe he has it in him. Don’t let the Rangers hot start or the first two outings fool you, Ogando will hurt you in end.

Projection: If you watch his mechanics… he’s all over the place, you can’t trust him. By the all-star break you can expect Ogando’s ERA to be around four so act now and package the flavor of the week.

The Second Season

 

What is more entertaining? March Madness or the NBA playoffs? The main difference?  No one and done upsets. The favorite is far more likely to win a best of five or best of seven series than the single elimination NCAA format. I don’t think a “best of” would work in the college game, but that’s an argument for another time.

The NBA playoffs, often referred to as the Second Season, begin in less than a week. This is one of the most anticipated post season’s in recent memory. We have showtime looking for a three-peat, the South Beach trio, the Hall of Fame Boston vets and much more. Lets take a look at what we have to look forward to, who has helped themselves and how.

We know more detail in the Eastern Conference, as the first round matchups are close to final. The Western Conference is another story, with San Antonio, the top dog, the only certainty among the seedings. More on the West in our next edition, lets focus on the East….

Chicago and Indiana may be the biggest mismatch of the post season. The Bulls are on a roll and Derek Rose is on a MVP mission. Rose will get plenty of help from a deep and talented front court. Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng are a complete group and fueled by solid bench play from Taj Gibson. The Bulls achilles heel may be deep shooting (or lack thereof), but that’s why they got Kyle Korver, right? If I’m up against Chicago, I try and make them beat me from the perimeter. The Pacers are also buyoued by an emerging front court with Roy Hibbert, Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts all taking a big step forward this season. I’ll tune in just to see Danny Granger, Indiana’s small forward may be the most underrated star in the game.

I am really looking forward to Miami and Philadelphia. The Sixers have some of the most athletic, talented young players in the Association. Philly continues to stockpile lottery caliber talent like Jrue Holiday, Thadues Young and Evan Turner. Sixers coach Doug Collins has done an excellent job with the raw talent, meshing it with superstar Andre Iguodala and the oft injured Elton Brand. Turner, the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft hasn’t had the impact some expected (yet) and I am certain much more was expected when they traded for center Spencer Hawes. What can you say about the Heat? Philly is just the kind of opponent that Miami beats up on. Do not expect the unexpected from  Leron and company. With three of the most aggressive slashers in the league, the Heat identified perimeter shooting as a major need. Mike Miller was the first target, he has been hurt and shooting has been off target. Most recently, Mike Bibby was addded. Another shooter to spread the floor, another Miami player that can’t/won’t play defense. Well documented, and surprising has been Miami’s inability to score with the game on the line.

You want a Garden party? How about Boston and New York in the first round. Talk about some great opening round television ratings. The Knicks bouunce back into prime time with Amare Stoudamire and more recently Carmelo Anthony putting Big back in the Apple. The problem with the Knicks are the other guys. Those other guys were all sent packing to Denver to get Melo and Chauncey Billups. In a way, New York is a mini Miami, the Knicks sacraficing depth for the star power. The burning question… is the concentrated star power what it takes to win a series, or will a lack of depth be the pitfal. The Celtics may have pulled the biggest surprise at the trade deadline. Boston giving up their enforcer Kendrick Perkins for the versatility of Jeff Green. Boston did add some nice pieces in Nenad Kristic and Troy Murphy who will both play large roles in the playoffs. Will we see O’Neal’s Shaquille and Jermaine? They appear to be a luxury needed only come playoff time.

Orlando and Atlanta round out the first round matchups in the East.  The Magic have been aggressively adding pieces all season long, just not certain if the pieces are from the same puzzle. The Magic made a huge move early, taking a chance of guard Gilbert Arenas,formerly of Washington. The possibilities seemed exciting, but Gilbert isn’t close to the player many remember. Rashard Lewis was the price to get Arenas, more a balancing act of cap room, that (former) talent on the court. Orlando followed that up with a blockbuster, reacquiring point forward Hedo Turkoglu from Phoenix. Hedo was magical during the  ’09 playoffs, before taking his talents to Canada. Jason Richardson came along with Torkoglu from the Valley of the Sun, providing yet another player that has to have the ball to be effective. The good news is Vince Carter was given a one way ticket to the desert from the Magic Kingdom. As for Atlanta, a 32 point loss the other night to  a CBA team known as the Wizards says it all. The Hawks have some incredible raw talent, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford could hold their own in a three on  three  tournament on the playground against anyone.  Seems par for the course in the ATL, which brought us Pistol Pete and  Dominique the Human Highlight Film. Atlanta did make a valiant effort to bring coherence to it all, but not even Kirk Hinrich can get it done.

Next time, we’ll try to make some sense of the Western Conference matchups.