Utah is Going to Love This Kid (Gordon Hayward)

I had high hopes for the dorky white kid who looks like he’s 15 years old, but I really didn’t expect any real production from him.

Analysis: In perhaps one of Utah’s best victories of the season it was the doofy young gun who led the team in scoring. Hayward poured in in 22 points against a team favored to win the whole shabam (LAL). Topping it off was Hayward’s shooting percentage. He was 9-14 from the field, which means he really caught fire. The points alone were solid, but he also contributed nicely in other important categories. He pulled down 6 boards, added 5 assists, had two steals, and even threw in a block for good measure. The question is whether or not this was a fluke night or a sign of things to come. One good sign is that he’s averaged 16 points for 3 straight games in April. Shooting 54% for the 3 games.

Projection: Hayward needs to put on some serious muscle so he doesn’t get pushed around at the small forward position. If he can bulk up a bit I think next year can be a solid year for him. Not spectacular fantasy production, but he’ll shoot a decent percentage and put up some points on occasion. His 3 point shooting is a serious plus for fantasy owners as he’s shot the ball well from deep all season. He’s averaging 45% from downtown this season, so when he actually gets some minutes he’ll put up a fair number of 3s for your fantasy team. If Hayward starts to heat up for any stretch expect Utah fans to jump aboard the Hayward train. I believe Utah is the perfect place for Hayward and Utah’s Mormon community will not hesitate to push Hayward to his greatest potential.

Nishioka To DL, Espinosa An Option

Slap hitting middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be going to the disabled list with a broken left fibula.

Analysis: Nishioka’s best assest was his legs and most experts thought he was good for twenty or so stolen bases this year. He is also capable of posting about a .280 batting average and there aren’t many second basemen on the wire who are a lock to hit .280. In deep leagues you certainly have to take a look at Washington second baseman Danny Espinosa. Over the last two years in the minors Espinosa has hit 40 bombs with 54 stolen bases. Espinosa probably won’t be hitting in the .280 range but I don’t expect to see his batting average dip below the .250-.260 mark. He really is a power/speed threat and only being owned in less than ten percent of fantasy leagues is certainly an added bonus. Espinosa already has six hits in six games with two doubles, two runs and two RBI. If you’re worried about a loss in long term batting average before Nishioka returns you may want to consider Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera is a lifetime .274 hitter with double digit steal potential even in his late thirties. And if you absolutely need to have a secure batting average going forward then it’s time to pick up Freddy Sanchez who is going fast in most standard leagues. Sanchez is a career .299 hitter but he doesn’t have the speed.

Is Axford secure closing for the Brewers?

Milwaukee closer John Axford pitched a scoreless ninth inning on Wednesday, picking up his first save of the season.

Analysis: In his first appearance, on opening day, he blew a three-run lead to the Reds. The Brewers have invested too much into their pitching to have games blown by an inept closer. Given that Axford converted 24 of 27 save opportunities with 76 strikeouts in 58 innings pitched last year, the role is his to lose.

Projection: Brewers’ set-up man, Takashi Saito, has been a notable bullpen presence since his inaugural season in 2006 (84 saves, 2.19 ERA, 11.03K/9) However, the 41-year-old Japanese reliever will have to wait for Axford to give up a few more walk-off bombs until he has a shot at the closer’s job. Owners shouldn’t remove Axford from their starting lineups yet, perhaps he will bounce back to the form he showed last year. Seeing how quickly Fernando Rodney was yanked from the closer’s role in Anaheim, a change in Milwaukee would not be surprising if the struggle continues.

Closer Update

 

Many auctions and drafts are won by identifying cheap saves. For many bullpens, its a guessing game when baseball moves from spring training in Florida and Arizona into the long six month regular season.

There are the “sure things”, the old veterans and the young upstarts. There are also the dreaded bullpens by committee. While things will certainly change, we have already seen some trends that may be lasting in less than a week of play.

We start with the elite that appear to remain safe. Jonathan Papelbon remains reliable with Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks simply setting up. Matt Thornton will thrive in his new found closer role with Chris Sale better served as a starter, for now. Chris Perez is the real deal in Cleveland and  should be a target if you can get him via trade. He isn’t as sexy as the other sure things and will come much cheaper. Joakim Soria struggled last night, but is as solid as there is and numbers could sky rocket if traded to a contender. Go ahead and take any question marks or red flags away from Joe Nathan, while Matt Capps value drops to middle man status. Will Mariano Rivera ever slow down, doesn’t seem anywhere on the horizon. Neftali Perez is the must keep or must get, nasty stuff with the only drawback a potential conversion to starter.

Over in the National League, any question marks surrounding Jonathan Broxton may be removed. Broxton struggled in the second half of 2010, but new skipper Don Mattingly has all the confidence in the world in the big guy. Add Heath Bell to the sure thing list, like Soria in the AL, his numbers could improve drastically with a trading deadline move. Carlos Marmol looks to add to his breakout season of a year ago, throwing smoke and getting it done. Francisco Rodriguez will return to elite status this season. Last season was simply a hiccup, you are safe with K-Rod. Brian Wilson has returned from the disabled list, and while very solid, overvalued due to the hype. If you have him, trade him once he gets going as you can demand more than he is worth. Despite some early bumps, Ryan Franklin is not threatened in St.Louis.

Jordan Walden leads the lists of emerging closers. Walden came up at the end of last season and showed why he was such a high draft choice. Walden has starter ability but for now appears to be “the man” in Anaheim. Craig Kimbrel with a pair of early saves appears ready to deliver on the hype, but Jonny Venters will steal a few. Houston Street had some bumps last season, but three early saves appear to have him back on the safe list. John Axford is new on the scene, while having promise, keep a close eye on his progress. Joel Hanrahan has delivered with four early saves, he throws very hard, with his only drawbacks, a lack of wins to support and a potential trade to a contender, where he might setup. JJ Putz returns to prominence, he has the stuff to get it done. Andrew Bailey is new enough for discussion as emerging, but first he needs to emerge from the DL. I’m going to sing the Jake McGee praise, Kyle Farnsworth has the job for now, but there is a reason he has been with practically every team in baseball.

Ah, the questions marks, the area you don’t want your closers to be discussed. We start in Cincinnati where Aroldis Chapman is lurking behind Francisco Cordero. Washington has no idea who its man is, Drew Storen figured to have the edge but hasn’t been reliable. Brad Lidge’s injury has Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson the candidates, I am still not comfortable with either. Brandon Lyon appears to have a solid hold, but he is scary, with Leo Nunez in the same boat. Kevin Gregg may split opportunities with Koji Uehara. Jose Valverde is very similar to Cordero in my book, his advantage is he doesn’t have Chapman looking over his shoulder. Frank Francisco is supposed to be “the guy” but his injuries have 6’11” Jon Rauch getting the looks, for now. Injuries have also propelled Brandon League into the closer role, but that may change to committee.

If you are were on target with saves, now is the time to move them, if you are short, you may want to consider bagging the category before opening up other problems by overpaying  for a closer.

Ubaldo Jimenez To DL, Who To Pick Up?

The Rockies have placed fireballer Ubaldo Jimenez on the 15-day disabled list because of a cracked thumb cuticle on his pitching hand. This leaves many options so early in the season on who to pick up, here are some answers for you.

Analysis: Kevin Correia of the Pirates now has two wins in two starts. Correia has pitched 13 innings allowing just two earned runs. In deep, deep leagues the right hander is a solid choice as he is owned in less than one percent of fantasy leagues. Edwin Jackson of the ChiSox is another widely available interesting option. E-Jax threw six innings of two run ball while striking out seven batters last Saturday against the Indians. Jackson is due to start Thurdsay against a struggling Rays team, look to take advantage. Another deep league option is Clayton Richard of San Diego. Richard’s next start is in PETCO against the Dodgers on Friday night. Richard may have the best season of all the pitchers mentioned here thus far just because of where he plays. Richard had a 3.75  ERA last year with 14 wins but he still doesn’t get any love. Look for Richard to be a consistent presence in the Padres rotation as they will again try to push the action in the NL West. Obviously, if it’s not too late to pick up Kyle Drabek then pick him up. For more information on Drabek just scroll down the page. Drabek possesses the most upside with the nastiest stuff of all these guys next to Edwin Jackson’s slider.