Hamilton Prefers Center Field – Stats Say Otherwise

Josh Hamilton recently said he’d prefer to play center field over left field. His reason is music to baseball purists’ ears:

“”I love to play defense more than anything. I love taking away from other people — not in a bad-guy sense, just having fun. Center field gives you more opportunities to do that.” – Josh Hamilton

Hamilton is an excellent center fielder. He’s robbed many players of extra-base hits and home runs. He’s thrown out runners on base, and keeps some runners from even trying to take that extra base. However he’s hurt himself crashing into walls the last two seasons, costing him (and fantasy owners) 102 games over the last two season. Despite an MVP-performance, missing the entire month of September was critical for many fantasy owners on the brink of championships.

Moving to left field from center will help keep Hamilton healthy, and focus more on hitting. Over his four-year pro career, Hamilton has hit much better as a left fielder than a center fielder (park factors not included).

Left Field (97 games): .369 BA and 1.103 OPS

Center Field (270 games): .287 BA and .847 OPS

His home run and RBI numbers are substantially better playing left field as well (extrapolated over 162 games)

Left Field:  45 home runs and 131 RBI’s,

Center Field: 28 home runs and 99 RBI’s

As a fantasy owner, which position would you prefer Hamilton to play?

Who knows why Hamilton hits better playing left? Left field is less physically demanding than center, but like Charlie Sheen, Josh Hamilton has one speed, “Go.”

“Ham-bone” won’t sneak up on anyone this season as he’s the 4th outfielder drafted on average, and is a steal in the mid-to-late second round. He won’t play 162 games. He probably won’t get to 150 games. But playing left for 135 games would produce the following line:

Projection: .340 BA / 37 home runs / 120 RBI’s / 102 runs / 8 steals.

What To Do With Valtteri Filppula

After missing eight games with a knee injury Detroit center Valtteri Filppula has now played in five consecutive unimpressive games.

Analysis: Filppula isn’t a slouch now, he does have 32 points in 55 games but he has been shaky as of late. Filppula only has one goal and zero assists since returning from injury but his minutes are relatively the same. It all comes down to team need on whether to pick up or cut the 26 year old Finn. Filppula is solid in goals, assists, plus/minus and shots, however, he doesn’t get the power play points, ice time or penalty minutes he could get somewhere other than Detroit. If he remains on your squad you have to at the very least give him a few more games to rack up some points or completely falter. If he’s not on your squad he is available in forty to forty-five percent of fantasy hockey leagues and he is under the radar so you have some time to decide.

Projection: No matter what, Filppula’s plus/minus will be solid and that is carrying his value at this point since his return from knee injury. The goals and assists should come if you can be patient, however, he will not give you much in the power play point department nor will he accumulate many penalty minutes. Expect 8-10 points the rest of the season with a plus one rating and just under two shots per game.

Rangers shuffle lineup, Andrus to benefit

Manager Ron Washington has re-aligned the Texas Rangers lineup, with Ian Kinsler slated to lead off and Elvis Andrus to hit 2nd. Michael Young will hit 6th.

Analysis: Andrus’s line from 2010 was deceivingly mediocre. He only hit .265, but his 32 steals and 88 runs were encouraging. So why is a player with his speed being moved to the #2 spot? Well, all of Andrus’s metrics from the lead-off spot were terrible. He led off in 134 games, and hit an anemic .136 with a .200 OBP in the first inning. Also, Andrus hit only .230 with a .304 OBP with the bases empty, and only .148 the first time he saw a starting pitcher.

However, for whatever inexplicable reasons, with runners on base, Andrus became a dynamic hitter. With men on, Andrus hit .339 and his on-base percentage soared to .420. With runners in scoring position, he was even better, hitting .347 with a .440 OBP. Andrus’s BABIP climbed over .400 in those situations, versus a ho-hum .277 with the bases empty.

So that’s a lot of stats to say that Andrus was a better hitter with men on base than leading off, but manager Ron Washington’s decision to move a player with Andrus’s speed out of the lead-off spot warranted explanation. However, he’s only 22 years old and his potential is through the roof. The move to the 2nd spot will help his batting average and RBI’s, but without extra-base power, it will still be a limited number of RBI’s.

Andrus is currently the 99th player drafted in standard drafts, and his average auction price is $8.6. That’s a little too high for a 2-category player in standard drafts, but just about right for auction.

Prediction: .282 / 94 runs / 2 home runs / 64 RBI’s, 34 steals.

The Indestructable Iguodola

Andre Iguodola has actually dropped off in scoring this season, but he still has enough positive attributes to merit mention.

Analysis: One of the often overlooked factors in playing fantasy basketball is a player’s injury history. Sure people know to avoid Yao Ming or Tracy McGrady because of their extensive injury problems in the past, but fantasy gamers are less aware of the oft injured others. Or to approach this in a different manner the importance of having a so called “Iron man” on their fantasy team. Out of Iguodola’s 7 seasons in the NBA he has missed a grand total of 6 games. Tough to believe that over the entire course of his career thus far, he has only missed 6 complete games, pretty crazy. When you play 82 games during the regular season, not even counting playoffs missing only a few games is quite a feat. This is important for your fantasy team, because it means that Iguodola is always available to put up some stats. Whereas with a player like Andrew Bynum might have better statistical production when he does play, but over the course of the season Iguodola is the far superior option. So despite Iguodola’s dip in points production, dropping from 17 points per game last season to just over 14 a games this season, he still has some value.

Projection: Iguodola’s points are down which is unfortunate but he is still a valuable fantasy option and can explode on any give night, keeping fantasy players interested. Take last night for instance- Iguodola wnet off for 22 points, 10 boards, and 13 assists. Those are the kind of fantasy night he puts up every so often that keep his value relatively high.

DeAndre Jordan Is Blocking Everything

DeAndre Jordan has five multi shot block games in his last seven contests.

Analysis: Even with Chris Kaman back in the Clippers lineup from an ankle injury, DeAndre Jordan is playing the best defensive basketball of his three year career. DeAndre Jordan has averaged 2.57 blocks per game in his last seven games, yes that’s right 2.57 blocks per game. The guy is absolutely dominating the blocks category and we just cannot ignore it anymore. Kaman may be back but Jordan has averaged 24 minutes in his last five games and totaled 38 minutes Wednesday against the Rockets in a 16 rebound performance. Like it or not DeAndre Jordan is here to stay and is a force in the blocks category. He’s only owned in 10-15 percent of fantasy leagues across the country and if you are in need of blocks then DeAndre Jordan is your man.

Projection: DeAndre Jordan will be hitting at least 22 minutes a game the rest of the season and that is enough to impact some fantasy squads in need of blocks with some rebounds. Expect 1.8-2.3 blocks per game with about 7 boards the rest of the season as DeAndre Jordan continues to improve his fantasy stock for your 2011-12 fantasy draft.