A.J. Burnett’s 2011 Fantasy Outlook

A.J. Burnett had his first outing of the Spring and threw two scoreless innings, giving up two hits to the Astros.

Analysis: There is a lot of pressure on A.J. Burnett to bounce back from his 10-15 losing record as he goes on to say: “I know the cameras are on me, the spotlight is on me to turn it around”.  Fantasy owners of Burnett and Yankee fans alike know that he is an extremely inconsistent player.  One week he will go 7 strong innings giving up just a run, and the following outing he implodes and gives up 5 in an inning.  Burnett is the kind of guy that gets easily frazzled and can lose control of the plate and the game at any time.  Play him when he’s hot and avoid him when he’s cold because there is no middle ground with him.

Projection: Expect A.J. to post a close to .500 record as a pitcher this year.  He will string together a few wins in a row, but eventually he will come back down to earth.  When he does, just make sure he is out of your lineups.

Grady Sizemore Paradise Lost Last Season

Last season at age 27 with experience Sizemore should have been the clean, electric, more personable  version of Barry Bonds who hung up these numbers in his last season in Pittsburgh at the same age: 109 R, 34 HR, 103 RBI, 39 SB, .311 BA, .456 OBP, and 1.080 OPS., but  that season and those stats are lost for Grady Sizemore. In 2011 at age 28 after missing so many games the last 2 seasons due to injuries, what can we expect?

Analysis: Before injuries took their toll Grady Sizemore put up numbers that remind us of some very fine hitters at the same ages – Duke Snider at ages 22 and 23, Jack Clark at 24, Barry Bonds at 25 and 26. Sizemore’s growth as a hitter has obviously been sidetracked. He won’t be back at full speed when 2011 begins. Also, we may be too optomistic about his 2011 PA, which would depress his counting stats further. We would settle for these stats as his first step back toward stardom.

Projection: 600 PA, 80 R, 21 HR, 60 RBI, 22 SB, .283 BA.

David Lee and his Underwhelming Season

David Lee puts up a decent game every once in a while, but his season stats at this point are not what was expected of him.

Analysis: I really thought that the change of scenery to the high scoring Golden State Warriors would have brought pleasant stats to Lee, but that simply hasn’t been the case. He’s averaging 4 less points a game than he did last season with the Knicks. He is taking 2 fewer shots a contest, but more important is his FG%. His percentage has dropped from around 55% in the last 3 seasons to a career low of 49% this season. Steph Curry is an excellent playmaker and he should have had more of a positive effect on Lee, unfortunately that hasn’t been the case. Another unfortunate stat difference between this year and last is the drop in rebounding. Lee is averaging 9.5 boards a game this season, which is down from the 11.7 a game he average last season. Those owners who thought Lee was due for a surge this season have been kicking themselves waiting for him to get started, but it just doesn’t seem like this is his season. He did put up a nice fantasy night tonight with 26 points and 12 boards, but that kind of production hasn’t been very constant.

Projection: David Lee can’t seem to find his groove this year and has been a big time fantasy let-down. Lets remember that he is in the first year of a big contract and is pretty comfortable right now. Perhaps too comfortable. Look for Lee to come out better next year, but I don’t see him averaging much better stats for the rest of this season.

Taylor Hall Out For Season

The first overall pick in the 2010 NHL draft will be sidelined eight weeks with an ankle injury, which is the remainder of the NHL regular season.

Analysis: The 19 year old injured his left ankle while fighting with Blue Jacket Derek Dorsett Thursday night. This is a major blow to fantasy hockey squads across the nation. Hall had scored 5 goals and 3 assists over his last ten games and was really playing the very best hockey of his young career. He also recorded five 4 shots on goal or more games in that same span and had 4 power play points. He really was turning into a point per game player. The high ankle sprain is a setback and he will be 100 percent healthy for next year but where does this leave your fantasy squad at the LW/C position since Hall had dual eligibility? Fellow Oiler MPS or Magnus Paajarvi is a logical pickup at left wing and should see a bump in his ice time. At center you may want to consider LA King Jarret Stoll who has four points in his last five games and is a plus two on the season with over 17 minutes of average time on ice.

Is Alex Rodriguez Finally at 100%?

In a very candid, upbeat interview with WFAN’s Mike Francesca earlier this week, Alex Rodriguez made it clear that he is now fully recovered from his 2009 hip surgery.

Analysis: Make no mistake; This isn’t the same A-Rod who used to choke under pressure, and then give scripted answers to the throng of media waiting for him after each big game. This isn’t the same A-Rod whose guarded, uptight persona caused noticeable tension in the clubhouse. This is the A-Rod who drove in 18 runs in the 2009 postseason en route to his first ring. This is the A-Rod who opened this spring’s introductory press conference by joking about “Popcorn-gate”, his televised moment of PDA with Cameron Diaz during the Super Bowl. This is the A-Rod who feels at home in his own skin, a feeling that has eluded him since arriving in New York seven years ago. Coming into camp visibly trimmer, the future Hall of Famer appears ready to roll, and sounds determined to improve on his 2010 output. Granted, he did hit 30 bombs and drive in 125 runs, a great season for 98% of his peers. However, Rodriguez is not like the rest of the league. Matter of fact, he’s far from it. Arguably the most talented player of this generation, his surgery definitely slowed him down whether he will admit it or not. Never one to make excuses, Rodriguez did admit that he has done significantly more rehab than training over the last 2 or 3 years at the instruction of his surgeon, Dr. Marc Philippon. Those restrictions were lifted by his doctor this past November and A-Rod is back to training at his old pace, a scary thought for American League pitchers. Although he won’t admit that his rehab has directly affected his production, reading between the lines says otherwise.

Projection: A-Rod owners should be giddy about his current state of mind and physical condition as he comes into this season with no limitations, hungry for another championship. Surrounded once again by a ridiculous lineup, it is not inconceivable that he return to his MVP form of 2007 where he led the league in runs, home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. Rodriguez doesn’t get the respect that he used to on Draft Day, and this could be a boon for those who believe in his potential resurgence. It’s time to treat Rodriguez like a first round pick once again, whether the other owners in your league believe that or not.