The Enigmatic Andrea Bargnani

With Chris Bosh out of TO, the Raptors expected/needed Andrea Bargnani to step up his game significantly.

Analysis: Andrea has increased productivity in a few areas, but has overwhelmingly been a disappointment. His team is losing and his stats have declined in a few categories that kill any benefit that his increased scoring brings. For example Andrea is averaging half the blocks he produced last season (down from 1.4 to .7 this season), and his FG% is down to 45% too. I’ve actually watched a number of Raptors games this season and I think they are becoming more comfortable with one another. While it is blatantly obvious by now that Andrea can’t rebound to save his life, I think as he grows in comfort with these new look Raptors he will continue to improve. He is a good player on a terrible team and his stats will be noticeably inflated because of this. Not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy owners of Andrea.

Projection: Andrea will improve slightly over the remainder of the season and is a good fantasy option for 3s, points, and FT%. For a former number 1 pick it is fair to have expected more from him, but he provides enough big scoring games to keep fantasy owners, at the very least, satisfied. He’s scored 30+ points seven times this season, even putting up 41 points versus the Knicks.

NBA: Best of the West

With the exception of Oklahoma City, the NBA Western Conference was weakened with the continued exodous of mega talent to the East. Even so, the two time defending champs reside in the Pacific and the sexiest team on the rise, Oklahoma City rule the Northwest, both from the Western Conference.

Gone are Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Jeff Green and Chauncey Billups. The short term winners are the Lakers as they strive to three-peat. The long term winners are the Thunder as the future power of the West have distanced themselves from the rest. Finishing first in the West assures home court advantage to the finals, but also probably lands a 2nd round match up with Oklahoma City, as the Thunder are looking more and more like a 4th seed. FantasySP takes a look at projected first round playoff match ups.

Memphis vs San Antonio– The Grizzlies picked up forward Shane Battier at the deadline to help carry them through the injury to Rudy Gay. Memphis tried to trade O.J.Mayo, but missed the deadline, creating an awkward situation. Zach Randolph was also on the block,  but will remain the Grizzlies main option in the post and on the  boards. The Spurs will be without  Tony Parker for 2-4 weeks, giving George Hill an opportunity to run the show. San Antonio may have one last run, with the inside-outside game of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili aging.

Portland vs Oklahoma City– Portland with a huge pickup at the deadline, getting explosive forward Gerald Wallace from Charlotte.  Wallace is a freak athletically and provides another option as Brandon Roy works his crippled knees back into shape.  LeMarcus Aldridge has taken a step toward power elite and Wes Matthews provides necessary minutes in relief of Roy. And yes, Greg Oden is still injured. The Thunder always a popular pick may have become the favorite.  Oklahoma City getting the big man they long desired, acquiring center Kendrick Perkins from Boston. The Thunder had to give up athletic flexibility in Jeff Green, but now have the big banger to face Dirk, Duncan, Bynum and beyond.  Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden get it done on the perimeter, but now Serge Ibaka has a playmate in the paint.

Denver vs Los Angeles Lakers– Looking at the big picture, Denver is in much better shape for the long run than they were just a few short weeks ago. Melo’s loss will be felt come playoff time, but the Nuggets certainly received value. Ray Felton, Danilo Galinari and Wilson Chandler are now in Denver, courtesy of  the Knicks and will see big minutes in the post season. Ty Lawson will share the point with Felton, while Kenyon Martin and J.R.Smith will be expected to fill the scoring void. Nene was rumored to be on the block, but Denver kept him, proving to fans that  winning remains an important part of the equation. Even with the Thunder roaring in Oklahoma City, the Lakers remain the favorite to three-peat. LA toyed with the idea of moving Andrew Bynum for Melo, but wisely did not, maintaining the size up  front that distinguishes them from the rest. The Lakers back court is stronger, Steve Blake allowing Derek Fisher to excel in critical minutes and Shannon Brown has been a nice surprise off the bench. Most of all, Kobe is Kobe.

New Orleans vs Dallas– The Hornets seem  the misfit of the West. Whomever gets New Orleans in the first round sure will be getting a break. No wonder Chris Paul wants out off NOLA.  The Hornets have nice bigs in David West and Emeka Okafor, but that’s about it. You think Trevor Ariza wishes he was back in Los Angeles about now? The Mavericks are the deepest club in the Association and appear close to adding another body. Free agent Corey Brewer is being courted by half a dozen teams, but only the Mavs have a mid-level exception contract to offer. Good money, chance to  go deep in playoffs, sure sounds alot better than Minnesota. Losing Caron Butler for the year hurt, but the exceptional play by center Tyson Chandler has more than made up for it.

Joe Nathan Returns to Action

Minnesota’s four time All-Star returned to the hill yesterday, his first outing in almost a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March.

Analysis: Although both Jon Rauch and Matt Capps filled in admirably this past season, the Twins still missed their elite closer. Nathan, who hasn’t had an ERA over 2.10 since 2005, has consistently ranked among the best in the game since taking over the fireman role seven years ago. Now 36 years old, the big righty out of Stony Brook University is looking forward to pitching the ninth for the first time at Target Field. Nathan threw 20 pitches in a scoreless inning against Boston on Tuesday, showcasing each pitch in his arsenal. His velocity was a tick below 90 mph and he felt a little soreness this morning. It is early March and this is all to be expected. The good news is that Nathan was able to make his pitches, and showed no real adverse effects.

Projection: Tommy John surgery is no longer the career death sentence it once was. As a matter of fact, many pitchers come back from it stronger than ever nowadays. This is good news for the Twins and Fantasy owners, as Nathan should prove to once again be a Top 5 closer. Owners may shy away from taking Nathan early because of a perceived risk, and this could allow you to scoop him up when nobody is looking. Aside from the great Rivera in the Bronx and the man with the big beard in San Francisco, no
stopper offers as much potential when it comes to saves and strikeouts as Nathan does. He’ll get plenty of opportunities, and 40+ saves to go along with 80+ strikeouts would not surprise me in the least.

Flyers Goalies Aren’t Getting It Done

Sergei Bobrovsky and Brian Boucher seem to be doing everything in their power to let Tampa, Boston and Pittsburgh back into the race for the number one seed in the east with their poor play as of late.

Analysis: Brian Boucher has allowed nine goals over his last three games including a four goal meltdown against the eastern conference’s worst Ottawa Senators. Boucher has played like the perennial backup that he is, showing little flashes of brilliance followed by long stretches of pedestrian netminding. Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been much better either. Bobrovsky has allowed at least three goals in his last three games with just one win. Bobrovsky does have the potential to be a great goalie but both of these guys are being exposed right now playing on a Flyers team that just hasn’t been as tidy as they have earlier in the year. You should stick with Bobrovsky at least another week and see if he can’t rekindle some of that early season magic.

Projection: This isn ‘t a new situation for the Flyers having two goalies they aren’t in love with going into the playoffs but Bobrovsky is a different breed. He’s going to be special one day and has the ability to take over games unlike Boucher. If Bobrovsky can get the majority of the starts you can expect about nine wins with a 2.6 GAA the rest of the season, solid secondary fantasy goaltender numbers.

NBA: Beast of the East

 The trade deadline has come and gone.  But wait, there are those mid-season free agents. You know, the guys who were part of the  whirlwind of last day deals. Mike Bibby and Troy Murphy were unceremoniously bought out (cut) by their new teams but have already landed elsewhere.  Athletic enigma Corey Brewer is the last (potentially) impact player left and is finding many potential suitors.

With 20-25 games remaining in the regular season, varying by team, FantasySP takes a look at how opening round match ups project, how roster moves may have impacted the races and what players will play a major role down the stretch.  At first glance, Charlotte may have forfeited the 8th and final spot to Indiana by shipping Gerald Wallace West to Portland. The real battles to watch are spots four through six. Why? The teams that finish fourth and fifth avoid the big three (Boston, Chicago and Miami) in the opening round.

Indiana vs Boston– Legendary Larry guides the Pacers into the East’s final slot and is rewarded with an opening round mismatch with his beloved Celtics. Indiana positioned itself for a deadline steal picking up O.J.Mayo from Memphis, only to have the deal voided due to technicality. Bird will need Mike Dunleavy to recover quickly from injury, but Brandon Rush’s return and the improving play of Josh McRoberts should be enough to hold off the Hornets. Boston’s acquisition of Jeff Green will help against the more athletic, perimeter teams, not so much against power teams like Orlando and several Western powers. Many are underestimating Nenad Kristic’s impact, the seven footer acquired with Green, will play a vital  role especially if the O’Neal’s do not return strong from injury.  Todd Murphy choosing the Celts over the Heat could have an impact on that series, should it  come down to that in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Atlanta vs Orlando– The Hawks quietly made the deal that may have the biggest impact on the post season. Combo guard Kirk Hinrich’s game provides everything that departed Mike Bibby’s game had lost. Hinrich is a great locker room guy, plays intense perimeter defense and is a very underrated three point shooter. The three guard rotation of Hinrich, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford stacks up with anyone. Hinrich also serves as a great ring leader for the ATL’s version of the big three (Johnson, Al Horford and Josh Smith). The Magic have been doing their re-arranging throughout the first half. Athletic guards Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson were added and both are capable of providing spark on a given night to supplement Superman. The biggest acquisition was clearly Hedo Turkoglu. Hedo has displayed some of the Magic that helped Orlando run through the post season two years ago.

New York vs Chicago– The Knicks were easily the centerpiece of the NBA transaction season. The long awaited acquisition of Carmelo Anthony mercifully came to fruition and New York finally had its superstar. While  New York got its man, depth was certainly abandoned. The Knicks will  have to get it done with a three man back court in Tony Douglas, Chauncey Billups and Landry Fields. Up front, New York can score with anyone at the forward position with Melo and Amare Stoudamire. Defending, rebounding and depth will be a huge problem.  The Bulls haven’t made many moves but appear to be stalking Corey Brewer. While Dallas leads (with the mid level exception), Chicago is hoping former Florida mate Joakim Noah can persuade Corey to the Windy City. MVP Derek Rose doesn’t need much help, look for him to carry the Bulls a long way.

Philadelphia vs Miami– The Sixers continue to build through the draft, and are starting to show signs with a very solid young group. Philly has tremendous but inexperience in the back court with Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner and their unquestioned leader in Andre Iguodola. Thadeus Young needs to step it up in post season, but has tremendous athleticism.  Up front, Elton Brand will never be the stud he once was the center Spencer Hawes has disappointed.  Anything short of a strong showing in the NBA finals will be a huge disappointment for all things Miami.  The Heat have dominated the lesser teams and this should continue easing them into  the Eastern  Conference finals. Perimeter shooting continues to plague Miami as Mike Miller has failed to spread the floor for the slashers. Picking up Mike Bibby may help if he magically finds his lost perimeter game.