The NFL where the rich get richer

To many an NFL fan the ongoing negotiations are simply rich guys (on both sides) trying to get richer. That may be so, but there are actually some issues on the table.  How to divide the league revenues tops the list. Currently, owners scoop a billion dollars off the top to offset some operational costs. In the new deal, they are seeking to double that number. The other main issue is the 18 game schedule.  The owners want the schedule to move from 16 regular season and four preseason games to 18  and two respectively. The players believe 16 may already be too many.

The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires at 1159pm EST tonight, but there are rumors an extension is possible. Reportedly the league is willing to give the players more detailed financial information, which remains one of the sticking points. A similar extension led to resolution five years ago.

President Obama has weighed in, saying he “expects and hopes” the two sides will resolve the situation. If politicians stick their nose in, it will undoubtedly benefit the players.

If/when a lockout becomes a reality, who is impacted most negatively? Teams with new coaching staffs for certain.  Carolina, Cleveland, Denver and San Francisco will be even further behind. More than half of the league’s teams will be making some sort of front office/coaching change and their transition will be delayed.

Free agency was scheduled to begin tomorrow. Without a CBA, there is no free agency. How many players would possibly be affected? How about well over 400!  If the absence of a CBA extends through the NFL draft in late April, undrafted rookies will also be negatively impacted. No CBA, no free agency, not even for the rookies.

What’s next? The NFL announcing a lockout through a press release. The players are expected to decertify and file an injunction. What does that mean? The players would move away from union representation and into the courts and anti trust law.

After that, hurry up and wait.

Time To Drop Niclas Bergfors

Niclas Bergfors is still owned in about half of all fantasy hockey leagues across the nation and is on a nine game scoreless streak.

Analysis: His trade to the Panthers did just one thing, it bumped his ice time up quite a bit. Bergfors received 17 minutes of ice time in his first game with the Panthers after not getting more than 14 minutes of ice time his previous ten games with Atlanta. He is a very talented right winger but he just hasn’t found a home yet and Florida won’t do much to cultivate his talents. In deeper leagues you can get away with Bergfors because he will get more ice time in Florida, he does shoot a decent amount and he does get power play minutes that eventually will translate into power play points. Yet in non keeper standard leagues there is no reason to hitch your wagon to a guy as cold and unproductive as Bergfors.

Projection: He has the talent and scoring ability to put up some solid points in the remaining games on the Panthers schedule but the risk is not worth the reward. Go ahead and pick up a right winger that’s actually producing and dump the 23 year old Swede. Expect 4 goals and 6 assists with over 16 minutes of ice time per game from here on out.

Invest In Josh Johnson In 2011

Josh Johnson was a stud in 2010. In fantasy where starting pitchers can hurt your team severely in so many categories, big bucks should only be spent on the expectation of a safe, awesome return on your investment. Was Josh Johnson simply lucky in 2010?  We usually look closely at 2 Base Performance Indicators (BPI) to see if we should expect a material correction the following season, namely HR allowed and Batting Average on balls in play. Josh’s .34 HR/9 was superb and likely to regress, so the question is how much can we expect? Here are the Park Factors in the NL East (LHB/RHB):

Marlins: 99/95
NYM: 90/94
Nats: 94/100
Phillies: 116/120

100 = League Average. Obviously the NL East is a good division to be a starting pitcher in HR wise, except those Phillies. Josh has had 11 starts vs. the Phillies in 6 seasons, going 5-3, 3.34 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, .316 OB, .364 Slug, and 5 HR. Only that inflated WHIP is of any concern.

In 2010 Josh’s BAbip was .297 versus a League average of .290, the opposite of what you’d expect by a lucky pitcher. Let’s take a quick look at some other 2010 ratios that show what made Johnson superb. These are shown Johnson/League Average: 25/16.7 K%, 6.9/8.0 BB%, 18.3/11.5 PAK%, 45.7/43.2 GB%, 79.5/71 LOB%, and 12.1/7.8 Swinging Strikes%.

In 2011 Josh will give up a few more homers and more men left on base will score, yet Johnson will continue to be worthy of your investment as an Ace. Just don’t pay for the full value of his 2010 stats in 2011.

Projection: 16-6, 203 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 201 K.

Josh Beckett: How Good Will He Be in 2011?

Issue: In 2010 Josh Beckett’s performance was Good, Bad, and Ugly. Which ones will show up in 2011?

Facts: Good, Bad, Ugly

GOOD

There were items that stand out below his ugly surface stats in 2010. Josh’s strikeout rate remains strong at better than 8K/9. His line drive rate ticked down from 20% to 19%. Hitters’ slugging and OPS were below the league averages. His .341 Batting Average on balls in play versus the .298 league average means he was unlucky as well. Injuries left the Bosox defense in shambles in 2010, especially in the outfield and at shortstop. Everyone appears healthy now, plus the addition of Adrian Gonzalez, so the defense behind Josh will be much improved in 2011.

BAD

His 3 year trend in BB% is 4.7 – 6.2 – 7.87. Beckett spent 65 days on the DL with lower back strain between May and July. His fly ball rate increased from 31.7% to 35.3%. His fastball slowed just a bit, but is still good. His average fastball speed for the last 4 seasons is 93.5, 94.3, 94.3, 94.6.

UGLY

He lost confidence in his heater last season. His fastball use the last 4 season it is 55.2%, 66.9%, 63.1%, and 69.0%. He also had less horizontal movement on most of his pitches. He went from pounding the strike zone high and away to working mostly low and outside, but with less movement away from or into the batter.

Career Highest – BA Against (.292), while the league average was .264. ERA was 5.78.

Career Lowest – First pitch strikes (62%); Innings Pitched 127.2.

He has injured 12 different body parts over his career, including Hand (8), Low Back (5), Elbow (2), Trunk (2), and once each – Fingers, Head, Upper Back, Shoulder, Neck, Groin, Foot, and General Medical.

Analysis: Injuries have most likely caused Beckett’s Jekyll and Hyde performances every other season. All pitchers are healthy…until not. How good will Beckett be considering how bad he was in 2010? Gazing into this season 4 things out stick in our mind: (A) Beckett’s bulldog determination; (B) he has displayed some strong Base Performance Indicators even when his surface stats have been ugly; (C) the abrupt change in the frequency of use and movement of his fastball; and (D) those injuries every other season.

If we condense Josh Beckett’s career into a single season’s worth of stats we would get a 162 Game Score season of 15-10, 3.96 ERA, 210 IP, 8.5K/9, 199K, 65BB, 3.07 K/BB, and 1.244 WHIP. We feel strongly that Josh will do better than that, despite real injury risk. Depending on how many others in your auction feel the same way and the timing of his nomination, Beckett represents an opportunity to grab a starter for $14 or less with the likelihood of earning $20 to $25. This is how pennants are won in auction leagues. The risk is in line with the reward, so long as you don’t spend over $14, before any auction inflation.

Prediction: 19-6, 3.66 ERA, 212 IP, 8.4K/9, 201K, 55BB, 54BB, 3.62 K/BB, and 1.18 WHIP.

{6-4-3 Assists to TexasLeaguers and Baseball-Reference.}

A.J. Burnett Yankee Saviour?

Issue: The Yankees are desperate for rotation help in 2011, while your fantasy team needs a starting pitching bargain, so you can spend more on big stick hitters. Is A.J. Burnett the guy?

Facts: After 10 seasons in The Show A.J. has won 10 games more than he has lost (110-100). 2010 was easily his worst season when he went 10-15, 5.26 ERA, and 1.511 WHIP. Burnett pitched through low back soreness in August, left hand laceration in July, and foot soreness in June, so nothing serious and no time on the DL in 2010. Maybe his splits will show us something. He gave up 15 HR on the road and only 10 at home, the opposite of what you’d expect. His Batting Average on balls in play was .326 at home and .320 on the road. Both say he was unlucky. Splitting the season in half indicates some real differences. His first half/second half splits are .275/.295 BA, 4.75/5.95 ERA, .357/.378 OBP, .440/,480 SLUG, and .310/.341 BAbip. Lastly, while his line drive and strikeout ratios were better than the league average, all these were worse: HR%, BB%, XBH%, GO/AO, and HR/FB.

Analysis: At age 34, 3 years older than his former teammate Josh Beckett, Burnett will improve in 2010, but not nearly enough to make him a valuable asset for either the NYY or your Roto team.

Projection: 10 W, 4.69 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 138K, 165 IP.