During the New York Yankees postgame show on YES, manager Joe Girardi announced that Freddy Garcia will make the start in game 3. A.J. Burnett will come out of the bullpen, likely in long relief situations. This move comes as no surprise to Yankee fans as they know all too well how inconsistent Burnett is as a pitcher. With the Yankees playing against Justin Verlander twice in this 5-game series, every start will be critical.
Tag: A.J. Burnett
A.J. Burnett’s 2011 Fantasy Outlook
A.J. Burnett had his first outing of the Spring and threw two scoreless innings, giving up two hits to the Astros.
Analysis: There is a lot of pressure on A.J. Burnett to bounce back from his 10-15 losing record as he goes on to say: “I know the cameras are on me, the spotlight is on me to turn it around”. Fantasy owners of Burnett and Yankee fans alike know that he is an extremely inconsistent player. One week he will go 7 strong innings giving up just a run, and the following outing he implodes and gives up 5 in an inning. Burnett is the kind of guy that gets easily frazzled and can lose control of the plate and the game at any time. Play him when he’s hot and avoid him when he’s cold because there is no middle ground with him.
Projection: Expect A.J. to post a close to .500 record as a pitcher this year. He will string together a few wins in a row, but eventually he will come back down to earth. When he does, just make sure he is out of your lineups.
A.J. Burnett Yankee Saviour?
Issue: The Yankees are desperate for rotation help in 2011, while your fantasy team needs a starting pitching bargain, so you can spend more on big stick hitters. Is A.J. Burnett the guy?
Facts: After 10 seasons in The Show A.J. has won 10 games more than he has lost (110-100). 2010 was easily his worst season when he went 10-15, 5.26 ERA, and 1.511 WHIP. Burnett pitched through low back soreness in August, left hand laceration in July, and foot soreness in June, so nothing serious and no time on the DL in 2010. Maybe his splits will show us something. He gave up 15 HR on the road and only 10 at home, the opposite of what you’d expect. His Batting Average on balls in play was .326 at home and .320 on the road. Both say he was unlucky. Splitting the season in half indicates some real differences. His first half/second half splits are .275/.295 BA, 4.75/5.95 ERA, .357/.378 OBP, .440/,480 SLUG, and .310/.341 BAbip. Lastly, while his line drive and strikeout ratios were better than the league average, all these were worse: HR%, BB%, XBH%, GO/AO, and HR/FB.
Analysis: At age 34, 3 years older than his former teammate Josh Beckett, Burnett will improve in 2010, but not nearly enough to make him a valuable asset for either the NYY or your Roto team.
Projection: 10 W, 4.69 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 138K, 165 IP.