Tag: Ervin Santana

Santana Wins Third In Row

Ervin Santana pitched another gem Monday afternoon against the Padres. He pitched 8.0 shutout innings and allowed just 5 hits while striking out 11 batters. He has won three games in a row and five of his last six starts.

Analysis: We all know that Ervin Santana is not the most consistent pitcher out there, however, he seems to have found some semblance of consistency recently. Last year he recorded a 3.24 ERA, 3.69 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP. This year has been more of the same through 131.1 innings on 20 starts- 3.63 ERA, 3.24 xFIP and a 1.23 WHIP.

Santana ranks 49th in ERA, 41st in WHIP, 28th in strikeouts and 23rd in wins. He has pitched very well over the last year and one half. Even at thirty-one years of age his velocity is the same it was seven years ago. Santana is relying more on his changeup and pounding the bottom of the strike zone this year with the Braves and his ground ball rate of 47% this season is 7% above his career average.

Ervin Santana is available in 7-15% of fantasy leagues. His next scheduled start is Saturday against the Padres again.

Ervin Being Ervin

Ervin Santana has burned more than a few fantasy owners over the years but is he still worth the risk?

Analysis: Ervin Santana is one of the more heavily dropped starters these days. He’s allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts and fantasy owners are seeking shelter from the erratic ratio bombing righty. However, he still may be of use.

Santana’s ERA is still south of 3.50 through 70.1 innings. His xFIP is 3.54 and his walk rate is the lowest of his career. His strikeout rate is his highest since 2008 and his HR/FB rate is well above his career average. Even Ervin’s velocity is fine but we must consider that his two most recent starts have come against good offensive teams(Cards/Angels) which does play a part in the nine earned runs over those starts.

Can Ervin Santana be trusted? Not really, but he is sporting a solid ERA and a 1.09 WHIP which is 24th best in baseball. Santana is available in 15-40% of leagues and that number is growing. We may know a bit more after Ervin’s performance Sunday in Texas but probably not. Keep in mind that the Rangers can mash and that Yu Darvish is pitching Sunday as well.

SPLITS: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez

Issue: Over the last 3 seasons 29 pitchers have won 36 games or more. Only 5 had cumulative ERAs over 4.00: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez. Which ones should we pursue in 2011?

Facts: Arroyo is the only one to have a credible 2010, so he got a 3 year $15 million contract extension, but it was a busy off-season for all 5. Following his first season at Fenway Park Lackey lost 15 pounds, while Vazquez has fled the Bronx for south Florida in 2011. Santana has added a split-finger fastball; Baker had surgery. Let’s go back and look at 2010.

Analysis:

Lackey
Split W L ERA IP HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
1st Half 9 5 4.78 113 10 1.602 5.4 1.48
2nd Half 5 6 3.97 102 8 1.216 7.8 3.3
Santana
1st Half 8 7 3.76 122 15 1.303 7.4 2.78
2nd Half 9 3 4.11 100.2 12 1.341 6.2 1.86
Baker
1st Half 7 8 4.87 109 17 1.312 7.8 5
2nd Half 5 1 3.82 61.1 6 1.402 7.8 2.21
Arroyo
1st Half 9 4 4.04 120.1 13 1.23 4.3 1.41
2nd Half 8 6 3.68 95.1 16 1.038 5.9 3.5
Vazquez
1st Half 7 7 4.45 95 15 1.221 7.6 2.11
2nd Half 3 3 6.64 62.1 17 1.668 5.9 1.52

 

2011 Projections:

Hurler W ERA WHIP K IP
Lackey 12 4.09 1.35 135 181
Santana 12 3.99 1.30 139 174
Baker 11 4.15 1.27 139 169
Arroyo 13 3.98 1.26 122 190
Vazquez 10 4.27 1.27 141 161

 

{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference and Marcel}