Many sites have distorted projections of Jonathan Sanchez due to his extremely low ERA last year.
Analysis: Jonathan Sanchez may be a strikeout machine but he was one lucky guy last year. He had a 79.5 LOB%, fourth best among qualified pitchers in 2010 and over seven percent above his career average. His 2010 FIP of 4.00 was nearly identical to his career average of 4.08. However, his ERA last year was 3.07 making his ERA minus FIP -.93, which means he was the fifth luckiest pitcher in baseball last year. His career ERA is over 4.2! Also take into consideration his BABIP against was .252 last year, thirty-seven points below his career average. There is no possible way Sanchez can sustain these numbers and finish as the twenty-second best pitcher in roto formats like he did last year.
Projection: Sanchez will go long before he should in most drafts and that means you won’t get the chance to pick him up but that’s fine because he’ll only give you 13 Wins, 3.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 200 K’s… solid SP4 numbers if you ask me.