Tag: Jose Bautista

Last Call On Colby Rasmus

Colby Rasmus has a four game hitting streak going and is finally starting to turn his season around.

Analysis: Since Rasmus’ batting average dipped down to .203, he has amassed ten hits with seven being extra base hits in his last seven games. Rasmus has also homered in each of his last two games. Considering Colby is owned in just forty percent of fantasy leagues, it just may be the last call for the red hot outfielder.

There is a lot to like about Rasmus at the moment. He’s hitting second now in the Toronto lineup with Yunel Escobar moving up to leadoff. There really is nothing like hitting in front of Jose Bautista if you are in a slump, see what Escobar has done over the past two weeks. Rasmus may never live up to the hype that he received in St. Louis, but he is a solid ballplayer with some pop. Expect 20 homers, 10 steals and 60 plus runs by season’s end. His batting average going forward should be at or near his career average of .247. Rasmus really just needed some time to hit his way out of his slump, he clearly isn’t a .203 hitter with a sub .300 OBP.

Buying Low- Yunel Escobar

With just a .254 batting average this season, Yunel Escobar is being dropped at an increased rate from fantasy squads across the country.

Analysis: Yunel Escobar is a player that you have to be patient with. He falls into long slumps but when he is on… he catches fire. At the moment he is hitting in front of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion who are both in the top ten in homers this year. The youngster Brett Lawrie will be back from suspension Monday to add yet another dangerous bat in the Toronto lineup to drive in Escobar. Teams have to pitch to Yunel and when he turns it around he will be one productive shortstop.

Thus far this year Escobar is hitting .26 points below his career BABIP of .312. When the balls start dropping his average will bounce back around to his career average of .287. Even though Escobar’s power numbers should be peaking he is finding other ways to be productive. Escobar’s twenty-three runs are sixth best among all big league shortstops. Yunel is widely available and his stock is falling right as his production will start to rise again.

The Jose Bautista Dilemma

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman shocked Major League Baseball (and fantasy baseball) by unleashing a majors-best 54 home runs last season, seemingly out of nowhere. How “out of nowhere?”

From 2004-2009: 1754 at-bats, 59 home runs, 211 RBI’s, .729 OPS, 14% home run rate,  .3 Wins Above Replacement

2010 season stats: 569 at-bats, 54 home runs, 124 RBI’s, .995 OPS, 36% home run rate, 5.6 Wins Above Replacement

Analysis: Bautista has “one-year wonder” written all over him, at least for that kind of production. Why is that? His home run rate (% of hits that were home runs) was astronomical, even compared to the best power hitter today, Albert Pujols (whose career home run rate is 21.5%). Bautista’s BABIP was an abysmal .233.

The only encouraging stat in terms of continued production from 2010 was his on-base percentage, which was .378. After a terrible April, his K/BB ratio was almost exactly 1:1.  Teams will have to respect his patience and power, and unless Aaron Hill and Adam Lind rediscover their stroke, teams will pitch around Bautista. Expect an increase in his stolen bases because of this.

Strategy: There certainly is a place for Bautista, but it’s not in the 4th round where he’s currently drafted in most leagues. Even if his production drops off significantly, he can still hit 30 home runs and drive in 90-100, which are great numbers for a 3rd baseman. He’s currently the 36th player drafted in Yahoo! drafts, ahead of players like Ian Kinsler, CC Sabathia, and Jon Lester, all of which provide more value than Bautista. If he can be had in the late 5th round or later, he’s worth drafting, but not in the 3rd or 4th round.

Prediction: .258 / 33 home runs / 103 RBI’s / 99 runs / 15 steals.