Tag: Edwin Encarnacion

Overvalued- Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin Encarnacion is coming off of a 42 home run, 110 RBI year but can he sustain his recent success?

Analysis: Toronto is much improved but the stats don’t support Edwin Encarnacion meeting or exceeding his ADP. Encarnacion’s HR/FB rate last year was 18.7%, 5.6% above his career average. He’s thirty years old now so we know what we are getting for the most part and another forty homer year isn’t in the cards. Most respectable projections have him in the 26-33 home run range but don’t go expecting 40 again like some sites are predicting.

To his credit, Encarnacion’s walk rate went up last year and his BABIP kept his batting average lower than it should have been. Encarnacion swung at a career low 21% of pitches outside the strike zone last year according to PITCHf/x. Even with all these positives his average draft position sits in the 30-38 range which is entirely too high. There are plenty of “buy low” options this year at first base/DH. Ryan Howard(110 ADP) had 14 bombs in 71 games last year coming off of a major injury without a spring training.

Buying Low- Yunel Escobar

With just a .254 batting average this season, Yunel Escobar is being dropped at an increased rate from fantasy squads across the country.

Analysis: Yunel Escobar is a player that you have to be patient with. He falls into long slumps but when he is on… he catches fire. At the moment he is hitting in front of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion who are both in the top ten in homers this year. The youngster Brett Lawrie will be back from suspension Monday to add yet another dangerous bat in the Toronto lineup to drive in Escobar. Teams have to pitch to Yunel and when he turns it around he will be one productive shortstop.

Thus far this year Escobar is hitting .26 points below his career BABIP of .312. When the balls start dropping his average will bounce back around to his career average of .287. Even though Escobar’s power numbers should be peaking he is finding other ways to be productive. Escobar’s twenty-three runs are sixth best among all big league shortstops. Yunel is widely available and his stock is falling right as his production will start to rise again.