Tag: Josh Hamilton

Rangers’ Cruz, Hamilton, to play Monday

On the heels of a 7-game road trip, the Texas Rangers will return home to Arlington and have two presents waiting for them: Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton. Both are expected to be in the lineup Monday against the White Sox. Bringing these two back onto the 25-man roster will have a significant ripple effect.

First who will get taken off the roster to make room? The most obvious candidates are Taylor Teagarden, Chris Davis, and Endy Chavez. The Rangers carried Teagarden through their first inter-league series where a third catcher can be valuable. Davis has started to hit better, but still can’t seem to hit breaking pitches.  All three can be optioned, but Chavez might be placed on the DL with a tight hamstring. None of those three should be on a fantasy roster, so that doesn’t affect fantasy moves.

The second ripple is that Hamilton will exclusively DH for at least the first two series back and Cruz will be in right field. Michael Young has been the Rangers’ most consistent hitter, so he’s staying in the field, and will rotate amongst the infield positions. This will hurt Mike Napoli’s playing time. Texas is expected to face two lefties in the next 6 games (Monday and Friday), so Napoli should start them at catcher, but not in the other 4 games. The way he’s swung the bat lately, it might be a good idea.

Every infielder should also get at least one game off this week. We could see Michael Young play 2nd and 3rd at some point in the 6 games against Chicago and Kansas City giving Kinsler and Beltre a day off. Andres Blanco will probably give Elvis Andrus a day off as well. So basically there are only two position players you can count on to play every game next week, and that’s Nelson Cruz and Michael Young. Look for scouting reports early.

Projection (Hamilton): 105 games (out of remaining 114), .315, 22 home runs, 70 RBI’s, 60 runs scored, 1 steal.

Projection (Cruz): 108 games (out of remaining 114), .290, 26 home runs, 65 RBI’s, 54 runs scored, 5 steals.

Josh Hamilton out 6-8 weeks

Josh Hamilton fractured his right shoulder in the first inning of Tuesday’s game against the Tigers trying to score on an unconventional pop-fly. With Hamilton on 3rd base, Adrian Beltre popped up to the left side of foul territory that sent Brandon Inge and Victor Martinez scrambling. Inge made the catch but no one covered home plate, so Hamilton took off. Inge tossed the ball to Martinez and tagged Hamilton just before he touched home plate.

It was a gusty move, and that’s the kind of intensity that wins pennants. However the Rangers will have to wait until June before they get their MVP back.

In the meantime, you don’t have to look very far to find a fantasy stop-gap for Josh Hamilton. Just look down the roster and you’ll find David Murphy.

Analysis: After Julio Borbon’s gaffe and Murphy’s game-winning double opening day, many people were clamoring for Murphy to replace Borbon. Well, “Murph’s” going to get his shot just 11 games into the season.

Murphy has always had talent. He was a 1st-round draft pick in 2003 by the Red Sox. His minor league numbers weren’t all that great (.273, 39 home runs in 1900+ at-bats), but has proven himself as a very capable major league hitter. His career batting average is .283 and his OPS is .804. Unlike most left-handed hitters, Murphy ISN’T abysmal against left-handed pitchers, putting up a very modest .266 batting average. That means he won’t sit against a pitcher just because they’re left-handed.

David is a line-drive hitter, hence why is BABIP is well above .300 for his career. There will be plenty of RBI opportunities in that Rangers lineup and should score plenty of runs.

Almost every player of fantasy value in the Rangers’ lineup should have been scooped up by now, so the possibility of 200 at-bats from a player in that lineup is well worth the risk. Murphy is worth adding to your roster across any format, regardless of if you had Hamilton on your team or not.

Projection (while Hamilton is out – about 50 games): .280, 9 home runs, 38 RBI’s, 7 steals, 38 runs scored.

Hamilton Prefers Center Field – Stats Say Otherwise

Josh Hamilton recently said he’d prefer to play center field over left field. His reason is music to baseball purists’ ears:

“”I love to play defense more than anything. I love taking away from other people — not in a bad-guy sense, just having fun. Center field gives you more opportunities to do that.” – Josh Hamilton

Hamilton is an excellent center fielder. He’s robbed many players of extra-base hits and home runs. He’s thrown out runners on base, and keeps some runners from even trying to take that extra base. However he’s hurt himself crashing into walls the last two seasons, costing him (and fantasy owners) 102 games over the last two season. Despite an MVP-performance, missing the entire month of September was critical for many fantasy owners on the brink of championships.

Moving to left field from center will help keep Hamilton healthy, and focus more on hitting. Over his four-year pro career, Hamilton has hit much better as a left fielder than a center fielder (park factors not included).

Left Field (97 games): .369 BA and 1.103 OPS

Center Field (270 games): .287 BA and .847 OPS

His home run and RBI numbers are substantially better playing left field as well (extrapolated over 162 games)

Left Field:  45 home runs and 131 RBI’s,

Center Field: 28 home runs and 99 RBI’s

As a fantasy owner, which position would you prefer Hamilton to play?

Who knows why Hamilton hits better playing left? Left field is less physically demanding than center, but like Charlie Sheen, Josh Hamilton has one speed, “Go.”

“Ham-bone” won’t sneak up on anyone this season as he’s the 4th outfielder drafted on average, and is a steal in the mid-to-late second round. He won’t play 162 games. He probably won’t get to 150 games. But playing left for 135 games would produce the following line:

Projection: .340 BA / 37 home runs / 120 RBI’s / 102 runs / 8 steals.

Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera+: Consistent Mashers

Issue: For the careful fantasy player who wants bankable hitting production in HR, RBI, and R without damaging his team BA, where should he look?

Facts: Auction/Draft Prep Tools: Categories Leader Board Last 3 Seasons— Thirty-nine hitters with

60+HR

200+RBI

200+ R

.270+ BA.

Ranked below by BA.

Player PA HR RBI R BA
Albert Pujols 2041 126 369 339 .331
Matt Holliday 1968 77 300 296 .315
Josh Hamilton 1640 74 284 236 .315
Hanley Ramirez 1964 78 249 318 .314
Miguel Cabrera 2017 109 356 292 .314
Joey Votto 1781 86 281 257 .314
Manny Ramirez 1405 65 226 202 .311
Kevin Youkilis 1644 75 271 267 .308
Robinson Cano 2004 68 266 276 .304
Ryan Braun 2055 94 323 306 .303
Justin Morneau 1650 71 285 235 .300
Vladimir Guerrero 1650 71 256 227 .300
David Wright 2023 72 299 290 .297
Ryan Zimmerman 1762 72 242 246 .294
Troy Tulowitzki 1578 67 233 238 .294
Andre Ethier 1866 74 265 253 .289
Derrek Lee 1939 74 281 264 .286
Alex Rodriguez 1724 95 328 256 .286
Adrian Beltre 1730 61 223 212 .286
Mark Teixeira 2104 105 351 318 .285
Adrian Gonzalez 2073 107 319 280 .285
Torii Hunter 1760 66 258 235 .285
Chase Utley 1905 80 262 300 .284
Evan Longoria 1840 82 302 263 .283
Raul Ibanez 1908 73 286 253 .281
Lance Berkman 1708 68 244 235 .281
Aubrey Huff 1926 73 279 255 .280
Prince Fielder 2127 112 326 283 .279
Jayson Werth 1810 87 251 277 .279
Matt Kemp 1992 72 266 272 0.279
Paul Konerko 1766 89 261 223 0.279
Hunter Pence 1947 75 246 247 0.278
Aramis Ramirez 1494 67 259 204 0.278
Vernon Wells 1796 66 232 226 0.275
Jason Kubel 1677 69 273 215 0.274
Jason Bay 1709 73 267 262 0.273
Ryan Ludwick 1707 76 279 230 0.273
Corey Hart 1743 63 241 231 0.271
J.D. Drew 1541 65 200 232 0.270

 

Analysis: Let’s put our arms around these 39 by slotting them into recognizable types:

Usually Out Performs His Salary: Drew (not sexy).

Post-Injury Bounce Back: Bay, Utley, Morneau.

May Have A Production Bump In Him: Hart, Kubel, Wells, Manny.

Possible Slight Bargain: Ludwick, Fielder, Huff, Berkman, Teixeira, Lee, Vlad, Cabrerra, Holliday.

Probably Over-Priced: Aramis, Konerko, Kemp, Werth, Ibanez, Adrian G., Beltre, A-Rod, Wright, Braun, Cano, Votto, Hanley, Hamilton.

Get What You Pay For: Pence, Longoria, Hunter, Ethier, Tulo, Zimmerman, Youkilis, Pujols.

Projections:

Name AVG R RBI HR SB AB
Albert Pujols 0.318 110 114 39 10 571
Ryan Braun 0.293 105 108 35 16 624
Hanley Ramirez 0.302 105 84 24 30 591
Miguel Cabrera 0.304 99 119 34 4 595
Joey Votto 0.297 97 109 32 11 581
Adrian Gonzalez 0.306 103 105 33 1 583
Matt Holliday 0.304 95 99 25 13 585
Troy Tulowitzki 0.291 96 103 26 12 561
Alex Rodriguez 0.280 89 118 32 11 517
David Wright 0.289 96 95 24 20 597
Robinson Cano 0.306 92 94 25 4 613
Josh Hamilton 0.306 86 102 26 9 541
Mark Teixeira 0.276 101 114 33 2 582
Jayson Werth 0.278 99 90 27 17 568
Evan Longoria 0.280 96 100 28 11 601
Kevin Youkilis 0.298 97 98 24 6 522
Matt Kemp 0.275 91 85 24 26 612
Chase Utley 0.278 98 88 24 14 542
Prince Fielder 0.274 89 98 34 3 551
Adrian Beltre 0.293 82 89 25 8 582
Brandon Phillips 0.268 95 84 21 20 635
Ryan Zimmerman 0.286 92 90 26 3 593
Hunter Pence 0.272 88 86 25 15 633
Justin Morneau 0.289 85 96 25 1 527
Andre Ethier 0.283 87 89 25 4 583
Torii Hunter 0.274 84 90 21 15 563
Vladimir Guerrero 0.281 78 91 26 4 512
Corey Hart 0.271 81 82 22 13 540
Aramis Ramirez 0.270 75 100 24 2 510
Derrek Lee 0.281 78 85 23 3 513
Aubrey Huff 0.267 85 89 20 4 576
Vernon Wells 0.265 81 81 20 9 595
Jason Bay 0.248 83 85 24 10 522
Raul Ibanez 0.278 70 79 20 3 472
Jason Kubel 0.267 68 82 21 2 494
Ryan Ludwick 0.253 73 85 23 3 532
J.D. Drew 0.265 77 70 20 4 456
Lance Berkman 0.262 71 74 18 7 464
Manny Ramirez 0.276 66 71 19 2 416