Mike Williams Strikes Again

Tampa Bay may not be playing well but Mike Williams is still putting up numbers.

Analysis: Mike Williams caught 7 balls on 17 targets for 132 yards and a score Sunday afternoon against the Rams. This now leaves Williams with 8 touchdowns and over 900 receiving yards this year. His targets have been inconsistent this season but he is averaging nearly 11 targets per game over his last four games. Keep in mind that Tampa is one of the more pass heavy teams in the NFL as evidenced by Josh Freeman’s 43.5 passing attempts per game over his last four games. Up next for Tampa Bay is Atlanta which should be resting plenty of starters in week seventeen.

The biggest surprise in all this seems to be that Williams is only being started in less than half of fantasy leagues. He may not be a consistent WR2 but he is an elite WR3/FLEX option that is not being utilized nearly enough in fantasy leagues. Williams is a top twenty fantasy wide out this year yet we see guys like Jeremy Maclin and Brandon Lloyd get more attention even though they have a combined 9 touchdowns in 29 games this year. It doesn’t make sense.

ADP Watch- Mike Williams

With Vincent Jackson signing a five year deal with the Tampa Bay Bucs, Mike Williams’ fantasy value is in question.

Analysis: Mike Williams did have a down year in 2011 but Josh Freeman’s dip in play was more to blame. Williams was targeted 124 times in 2011, fourteenth most in the NFL. Even with Jackson in the mix Williams is still good for 100 targets this year. He caught 65 balls for 771 yards in his second year and as a rookie he caught 65 balls for 964 yards. The biggest difference was the three touchdowns last year to the eleven in his rookie year. Most people want to blame Williams but take a look at Josh Freeman’s numbers- 2010- 25 TD, 6 INT while in 2011- 16 TD, 22 INT. Freeman has ball security issues which also include 27 total fumbles over the past three seasons. With Kellen Winslow gone, Mike Williams is far and away the second option in the Tampa passing game this year which will improve… Josh Freeman isn’t an awful quarterback. Vincent Jackson will get his share but to expect just three touchdowns from Williams again in 2012 is a joke.

At the moment Williams is the 45th to 49th wide out being taken off the board with an ADP in the 120-150 range. On talent alone he is certainly worth a gamble at his ADP and he has tons of upside unlike Laurent Robinson and Randall Cobb who are in his ADP range.

Williams, Ingram, Branch Available

Tampa’s Mike Williams along with Mark Ingram and Deion Branch are still available in a small percentage of fantasy leagues. These three guys are all must owns in all formats.

Analysis: Tampa’s Mike Williams has not been the touchdown machine he was last year, but as of late he has been special. Williams now has back to back eighty plus yard games and he has scored in both contests. Tack on twenty-two targets in those two games and you have yourself a WR2(again) available in ten percent of ESPN and ten percent of CBS leagues.

Mark Ingram is coming off of a thirteen carry, eighty yard performance against the Giants in week twelve. Ingram now has four touchdowns in nine games played this year, that’s pretty good. Ingram is available in seven percent of ESPN and ten percent of CBS leagues. Whether he is a RB3/Flex option or just another depth back… he should be owned.

Deion Branch is another interesting case. I find it hard to believe that a wide out with four touchdowns and 628 receiving yards(22nd among NFL wide outs) is still available in eighteen percent of ESPN leagues and six percent of CBS leagues. There is plenty of talent available on the wire regardless of league format. These three playmakers are just a small sample of what is out there for you.

NFL- Fantasy Value Down

With the addition of Sidney Rice to the Seattle roster, the 6-5 230 pound Mike Williams will no longer be the number one wide out on the squad. Mike Williams had a great year in 2010, catching 65 balls for 751 yards in just fourteen games played. He figured to be the perfect sleeper in fantasy drafts this year but it is no longer the case. Before the trade Williams was rated as a borderline WR3/WR4 but now he is certainly a mid tier WR4. With Sidney Rice you’re getting an explosive playmaker and an even better red zone target than Williams. Rice’s value now appears to be a top 25 wide out and a WR2 with the potential for more if he stays healthy.

Deion Branch was another sleeper that was going to have himself a huge fantasy campaign with a full season with Tom Brady. But fast forward to August 2011 and you have another WR4 who will not be getting the looks in the red zone to be fantasy relevant on a consistent basis. The addition of Chad Ochocinco doesn’t hurt the Patriot tight ends as much as it does Branch. This is just another case of a potential sleeper gone bad due to trades and/or free agency.