Tag: Ubaldo Jimenez

Ubaldo Watch

Ubaldo Jimenez has gained some serious steam in the fantasy world but is he a safe fantasy option or will he blow up your ratios?

Analysis: The bad news is that Ubaldo got touched up for six earned runs Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers. The good news is that up until last night he started four consecutive games and did not allow more than two earned runs in those four starts. So what is going on here?

Ubaldo’s ERA is north of six, there is no getting away from that. On a positive note he is striking out over nine batters per nine innings pitched. His xFIP is south of 4.00 which does come as a surprise. But we must consider that Ubaldo’s fastball velocity is taking a hit for the fourth straight year. Ubaldo’s HR/FB rate will fall(second worst in baseball and well above his career average) and his strand rate should tick up a bit which means a lower ERA. However, there doesn’t seem to be enough of a reward with Ubaldo as opposed to the risk- nine starts, three of which he has allowed six plus earned runs.

Not Buying Ubaldo

Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched two great games in the past week but I’m not buying it and here is why.

Analysis: Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed just two earned runs in 13.2 innings of work over his last two starts. That still leaves Ubaldo’s ERA at 4.91 with an xFIP of 5.56. When Ubaldo was at his best he was a flamethrower with a bit of command, now it is just the opposite. Ubaldo’s average fastball is just 92.3 MPH, down 4 MPH from his 2009-2010 prime. The strikeouts are obviously down as well. This year he’s averaging 5.6K/9IP compared to over 8K/9IP over his last three seasons. His walk rate of 5.7BB/9IP is concerning as well, it’s second most in baseball among qualified pitchers. In year’s past he was walking just 3.7 batters per nine.

A few solid starts and a 6-4 record isn’t going to fool anyone here. His velocity is down, his strikeouts are down, his walks are sky high and he has yet to strike out eight batters in one game this year, something he did seven times last year in a down year.

Ubaldo Jimenez To DL, Who To Pick Up?

The Rockies have placed fireballer Ubaldo Jimenez on the 15-day disabled list because of a cracked thumb cuticle on his pitching hand. This leaves many options so early in the season on who to pick up, here are some answers for you.

Analysis: Kevin Correia of the Pirates now has two wins in two starts. Correia has pitched 13 innings allowing just two earned runs. In deep, deep leagues the right hander is a solid choice as he is owned in less than one percent of fantasy leagues. Edwin Jackson of the ChiSox is another widely available interesting option. E-Jax threw six innings of two run ball while striking out seven batters last Saturday against the Indians. Jackson is due to start Thurdsay against a struggling Rays team, look to take advantage. Another deep league option is Clayton Richard of San Diego. Richard’s next start is in PETCO against the Dodgers on Friday night. Richard may have the best season of all the pitchers mentioned here thus far just because of where he plays. Richard had a 3.75  ERA last year with 14 wins but he still doesn’t get any love. Look for Richard to be a consistent presence in the Padres rotation as they will again try to push the action in the NL West. Obviously, if it’s not too late to pick up Kyle Drabek then pick him up. For more information on Drabek just scroll down the page. Drabek possesses the most upside with the nastiest stuff of all these guys next to Edwin Jackson’s slider.

Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson: Solid Buy or Bargain?

Jimenez earned $29 in 2010 and $24 in 2009, while Johnson earned $24 both seasons. Ubaldo threw the Rockies first no-hitter last April and had 15 wins at the Break, while Josh had the lowest NL ERA.

Analysis: Ubaldo is being punished in auctions for 3 cardinal sins- not winning 30 or even 20 games last season; not giving up a normal number of HR; and not breaking down despite suspected pitcher abuse, i.e. 27 games between 100 and 119 pitches, plus another 9 over 119. Jimenez missed 10 days in 2010 and 7 in 2009. On the other hand, Johnson was shut down near the end of the 2010 season for being weary; he had Tommy John Surgery in 2008. Lets look at the two halves of the 2010 season.

Hurler W IP HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
A  <ASG 15 127 6 46 113 2.20 1.05 .198
A  >ASG 4 94.2 4 46 101 3.80 1.30 .223
B <ASG 9 122 4 28 123 1.70 0.96 .203
B >ASG 2 61.2 3 20 63 3.50 1.39 .276

A is Ubaldo; B is Josh. ASG = All Star Game. In the recent CBS Sports Expert Auction Ubaldo was hammered down for $20 and Josh for $25.

Projections:
Jimenez 20 W, 222 IP, 200 K, 3.45 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.
Johnson 15 W, 203 IP, 201 K, 3.38 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP.
Why pay 25% more for Johnson?