After a .336 AVG, 34 HR, 26 SB year the hype machine just won’t stop with CarGo and almost all experts are tagging him as a top ten pick.
Analysis: Gonzalez hit .380 and hit 26 of his 34 homers at home last year. That stat alone should raise the red flag on his consistency issues. His BABIP was an unsustainable .384 and should come down at least thirty points to even out his average to about .300. Gonzalez’s plate discipline is also a concern, he’s swinging at 37% of pitches outside of the strike zone. To put this into perspective, Alfonso Soriano’s career O-Swing percentage is 35%. The bottom line is CarGo isn’t a top ten player due to an inflated batting average and an unsustainble output at home in 2010.
Projection: Gonzalez is no doubt a top 12-15 player because he’s a five category stud but the batting average and power numbers will take a hit this year. Expect a .295 AVG, 28 HR, 22 SB at a relatively deep outfield position in 2011.