If you’re like much of North America then March Madness has completely taken over your household and you can’t help but get excited about BYU’s own Jimmer Fredette. The big question is whether or not Jimmer can translate any of this collegiate success into NBA fantasy production.
Analysis: As far as college players go, WOW, is Jimmer ever exciting to watch. I just finished watching the BYU versus Gonzaga game and Jimmer played superb. Urban Dictionary has even put up a definition for a Jimmer: “one who is in range as soon as he steps off the bus.” This couldn’t be more true as he regularly knocks down shots from almost the half court range. If anybody else was jacking up those kinds of shots they would immediately find themselves riding the pine, but not Jimmer. Jimmer is averaged 29 points per game this season, and has scored over 30 in both of his NCAA tournament games. Before we get too excited we have to check our expectations with a dose of reality. Great college numbers do not necessarily translate into NBA success, see Adam Morrison. Morrison averaged only a point less than Jimmer in his best season, and he did it in his third year (as opposed to Jimmer doing it in his fourth year). Morrison also put up far better percentages from both 3 point range and Field goal range. However I want to end any possible Morrison comparisons now, because their college games are quite different. Morrison had a significant height advantage in college, at his position, and was able to easily get his shots off. In the NBA this was not the case and he was never able to find his stroke. Jimmer has no such height advantage and thus relies more on craftiness to hit his shots. Jimmer will not be the next Adam Morrison.
Projection: At the end of the day Jimmer is a relatively unathletic white kid, and we should temper our NBA expectations of him accordingly. He’s not going to average 20 a game in the NBA, but he’s got the know how to be a respectable player right away. Another plus for Jimmer in the NBA is that he’s a Mormon and will have a tougher time getting into trouble.