The Very Overrated Austin Jackson

We all know how inflated Austin  Jackson’s batting average was last year but his lack of plate discipline should really concern you.

Analysis: Austin Jackson’s league leading .396 BABIP was the only reason he flirted with hitting .300 last year. In reality, Jackson is a .280-.285 hitter when considering the facts. Jackson’s BABIP will take at least a ten point hit in 2011, .396 is just unsustainable. Jackson’s 27.5% strikeout rate is cause for concern as well and looks like it’s here to stay. His Double A and Triple A K-rates averaged about 23% and he was hitting for more power. Coming in to last year there were some scouts talking about his power potential and how a 10-12 home run year was realistic. His home run total last year was 4 and his ISO was .107, to put that into perspective that’s Orlando Husdon and Starlin Castro’s ISO range. The most telling stat has to be Jackson’s .28 BB/K line which was sixth worst in MLB last year. It’s fine to have a leadoff hitter without power but one that strikes out like a power hitter and cannot draw a walk is very concerning, especially to stolen base and run totals.

Projection: Jackson is good for what he did last year minus a few batting average points and some runs. However, guys like Jose Tabata, Cameron Maybin and Dexter Fowler ALL have the potential to put up similar numbers and you can get them many rounds later in your fantasy draft.

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