Jeremy Hellickson is sporting a 2.77 ERA and a 4-0 record this year. So, why are we selling him?
Analysis: Jeremy Hellickson’s FIP is 4.78 this year while his ERA sits at 2.77. He actually leads the league in ERA minus FIP this year by quite a large margin. To further his seemingly good stat line is his left on base percentage of 88.1%, which is third in all of baseball. You cannot sustain an 88.1 LOB% over the course of a season. To put it in perspective, Roy Halladay’s career LOB% is 73.6 and it is 71.4% this year. Jeremy Hellickson is a solid pitcher with an excellent changeup, however, a sub 3.5 ERA is not going to happen this year.
It’s time to sell Hellickson as soon as possible. He isn’t a strikeout machine and his numbers will fall back down to earth sooner or later. Even his BABIP against is at .233 which is thirteenth best or luckiest(which ever you prefer) in baseball this year. Again, to put it in perspective, Roy Halladay’s career BABIP against is .292 and .280 this year. All signs point to selling and selling high here.