Overvalued- Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin Encarnacion is coming off of a 42 home run, 110 RBI year but can he sustain his recent success?

Analysis: Toronto is much improved but the stats don’t support Edwin Encarnacion meeting or exceeding his ADP. Encarnacion’s HR/FB rate last year was 18.7%, 5.6% above his career average. He’s thirty years old now so we know what we are getting for the most part and another forty homer year isn’t in the cards. Most respectable projections have him in the 26-33 home run range but don’t go expecting 40 again like some sites are predicting.

To his credit, Encarnacion’s walk rate went up last year and his BABIP kept his batting average lower than it should have been. Encarnacion swung at a career low 21% of pitches outside the strike zone last year according to PITCHf/x. Even with all these positives his average draft position sits in the 30-38 range which is entirely too high. There are plenty of “buy low” options this year at first base/DH. Ryan Howard(110 ADP) had 14 bombs in 71 games last year coming off of a major injury without a spring training.

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