BABIP Regression

Casey McGehee, Drew Stubbs and Adam Lind are unexpectedly among the leaders in BABIP this season. Expect a regression.

Analysis: Casey McGehee is hitting .319 this season with a .369 BABIP. The thirty-one year old is a career .267 hitter with a .298 BABIP. His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up but his .072 isolated power is 44th out of 44 among third baseman with 150 plate appearances. He has 1 home run and 1 stolen base this season…. when his batting average dips you can say goodbye to his runs batted in as well.

Drew Stubbs is another player to avoid. He is hitting .292 this season with a .378 BABIP. He is a career .244 hitter with a .327 BABIP. He does have 10 bombs and 11 swipes this season so he remains a viable option even if his batting average dips. Stubbs is still striking out at a 29% clip and walking 3% below his career average this year. Keep in mind that CarGo and Corey Dickerson are back so he may not get as many at bats.

Adam Lind should return to action by the end of the month. He is hitting .320 with a .376 BABIP. The thirty-one year old is a career .272 hitter with a .302 BABIP. He only has 4 home runs in 61 games this season. He ranks 27th in isolated power among first baseman with 150 plate appearances. Expect a sub .300 batting average by season’s end.

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