Author: James Morgan

Albert Einstein is credited with defining 'insanity' as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera+: Consistent Mashers

Issue: For the careful fantasy player who wants bankable hitting production in HR, RBI, and R without damaging his team BA, where should he look?

Facts: Auction/Draft Prep Tools: Categories Leader Board Last 3 Seasons— Thirty-nine hitters with

60+HR

200+RBI

200+ R

.270+ BA.

Ranked below by BA.

Player PA HR RBI R BA
Albert Pujols 2041 126 369 339 .331
Matt Holliday 1968 77 300 296 .315
Josh Hamilton 1640 74 284 236 .315
Hanley Ramirez 1964 78 249 318 .314
Miguel Cabrera 2017 109 356 292 .314
Joey Votto 1781 86 281 257 .314
Manny Ramirez 1405 65 226 202 .311
Kevin Youkilis 1644 75 271 267 .308
Robinson Cano 2004 68 266 276 .304
Ryan Braun 2055 94 323 306 .303
Justin Morneau 1650 71 285 235 .300
Vladimir Guerrero 1650 71 256 227 .300
David Wright 2023 72 299 290 .297
Ryan Zimmerman 1762 72 242 246 .294
Troy Tulowitzki 1578 67 233 238 .294
Andre Ethier 1866 74 265 253 .289
Derrek Lee 1939 74 281 264 .286
Alex Rodriguez 1724 95 328 256 .286
Adrian Beltre 1730 61 223 212 .286
Mark Teixeira 2104 105 351 318 .285
Adrian Gonzalez 2073 107 319 280 .285
Torii Hunter 1760 66 258 235 .285
Chase Utley 1905 80 262 300 .284
Evan Longoria 1840 82 302 263 .283
Raul Ibanez 1908 73 286 253 .281
Lance Berkman 1708 68 244 235 .281
Aubrey Huff 1926 73 279 255 .280
Prince Fielder 2127 112 326 283 .279
Jayson Werth 1810 87 251 277 .279
Matt Kemp 1992 72 266 272 0.279
Paul Konerko 1766 89 261 223 0.279
Hunter Pence 1947 75 246 247 0.278
Aramis Ramirez 1494 67 259 204 0.278
Vernon Wells 1796 66 232 226 0.275
Jason Kubel 1677 69 273 215 0.274
Jason Bay 1709 73 267 262 0.273
Ryan Ludwick 1707 76 279 230 0.273
Corey Hart 1743 63 241 231 0.271
J.D. Drew 1541 65 200 232 0.270

 

Analysis: Let’s put our arms around these 39 by slotting them into recognizable types:

Usually Out Performs His Salary: Drew (not sexy).

Post-Injury Bounce Back: Bay, Utley, Morneau.

May Have A Production Bump In Him: Hart, Kubel, Wells, Manny.

Possible Slight Bargain: Ludwick, Fielder, Huff, Berkman, Teixeira, Lee, Vlad, Cabrerra, Holliday.

Probably Over-Priced: Aramis, Konerko, Kemp, Werth, Ibanez, Adrian G., Beltre, A-Rod, Wright, Braun, Cano, Votto, Hanley, Hamilton.

Get What You Pay For: Pence, Longoria, Hunter, Ethier, Tulo, Zimmerman, Youkilis, Pujols.

Projections:

Name AVG R RBI HR SB AB
Albert Pujols 0.318 110 114 39 10 571
Ryan Braun 0.293 105 108 35 16 624
Hanley Ramirez 0.302 105 84 24 30 591
Miguel Cabrera 0.304 99 119 34 4 595
Joey Votto 0.297 97 109 32 11 581
Adrian Gonzalez 0.306 103 105 33 1 583
Matt Holliday 0.304 95 99 25 13 585
Troy Tulowitzki 0.291 96 103 26 12 561
Alex Rodriguez 0.280 89 118 32 11 517
David Wright 0.289 96 95 24 20 597
Robinson Cano 0.306 92 94 25 4 613
Josh Hamilton 0.306 86 102 26 9 541
Mark Teixeira 0.276 101 114 33 2 582
Jayson Werth 0.278 99 90 27 17 568
Evan Longoria 0.280 96 100 28 11 601
Kevin Youkilis 0.298 97 98 24 6 522
Matt Kemp 0.275 91 85 24 26 612
Chase Utley 0.278 98 88 24 14 542
Prince Fielder 0.274 89 98 34 3 551
Adrian Beltre 0.293 82 89 25 8 582
Brandon Phillips 0.268 95 84 21 20 635
Ryan Zimmerman 0.286 92 90 26 3 593
Hunter Pence 0.272 88 86 25 15 633
Justin Morneau 0.289 85 96 25 1 527
Andre Ethier 0.283 87 89 25 4 583
Torii Hunter 0.274 84 90 21 15 563
Vladimir Guerrero 0.281 78 91 26 4 512
Corey Hart 0.271 81 82 22 13 540
Aramis Ramirez 0.270 75 100 24 2 510
Derrek Lee 0.281 78 85 23 3 513
Aubrey Huff 0.267 85 89 20 4 576
Vernon Wells 0.265 81 81 20 9 595
Jason Bay 0.248 83 85 24 10 522
Raul Ibanez 0.278 70 79 20 3 472
Jason Kubel 0.267 68 82 21 2 494
Ryan Ludwick 0.253 73 85 23 3 532
J.D. Drew 0.265 77 70 20 4 456
Lance Berkman 0.262 71 74 18 7 464
Manny Ramirez 0.276 66 71 19 2 416

Jair Jurrjens – The Next Juan Marichal or Scott Sanderson?

Issue: As a 24 year old Jair Jurrjens followed up a fine 2009 season with a shortened 2010 season because of injuries. He seems to be fine in Spring Training, so who will he become over the rest of his career and most importantly in 2011? Will he pitch like Hall Of Famer Juan Marichal or Scott Sanderson?

Facts: Bill James created formulas in order to compare players of different eras. Comparing Jair’s career to date to other pitchers’ careers at the same age there are at least 10 similar hurlers. We’ll use 2 of them to compare careers in order to peer into the future of J.J. The two pitchers are Hall Of Famer Juan Marichal (16 season career) and Scott Sanderson (19 season career).

First, actual career stats for all 3 through age 24, then Marichal’s and Sanderson’s career stats beginning with the season they turned 25 and going through the remainder of their careers:

(ERA+ is adjusted to the hurler’s ball park. Counter intuitively the higher the better, with 100 = the league average.)

Player From/To Yrs W L ERA GS SHO IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Jurrjens 2007-2010 4 37 27 3.52 92 0 550.3 518 215 43 198 390 117
Marichal 1960-1962 3 37 23 3.44 74 7 529 475 202 63 166 335 109
Sanderson 1978-1981 4 38 28 3.10 88 8 577.7 528 199 47 162 390 115


Player From/To Yrs W L ERA GS SHO IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Marichal 1963-1975 13 206 119 2.79 383 45 2978 2678 924 257 543 1968 125
Sanderson 1982-1996 15 125 115 4.06 319 6 1984 2062 894 250 463 1221 98

Next, Marichal’s and Sanderson’s age 25 season actual stats, because in 2011 J.J. will be the same age:

Marichal

Year Age Tm W L ERA GS SHO IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1963 25 SFG 25 8 2.41 40 5 321.1 259 27 61 248 133 0.996 7.3 6.9 4.07

Sanderson

Year Age Tm W L ERA GS SHO IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1982 25 MON 12 12 3.46 32 0 224 212 24 58 158 106 1.205 8.5 6.3 2.72

 

Analysis: The comparisons are fascinating. Through age 24 J.J. has the best ERA+, yet Scott is better in that same category than Juan. Likewise, J.J. has given up the least HR and is tied for most Ks. At this point J.J. could be either one and Sanderson was a better pitcher than Marichal early on. When we look at the rest of the other 2 hurlers’ careers some things stand out. Juan was clearly the best. ERA, ERA+, IP, Ks, and Wins are where he easily separates himself from Scott and hammers down Hall Of Fame type production. And how about Juan’s 45 shutouts over the remainder of his career? Not bad. Lastly, the 25 year old seasons also tell us something. Scott is a .500 pitcher, while Juan earns as many wins as his number of birthdays. We think J.J. is a season behind these 2 due to injuries and surgery last season, so we feel his break-out season will be in 2012, not 2011, but he will still be a fine starting pitcher this season. J.J. in 2012 could be either of the other 2, but this season shall give us a nod in which direction- HOF candidate or a little better than a .500 hurler.

2011 Projection:

Name Team $ W$ S$ ERA$ WHIP$ K$ Pos$ W S ERA WHIP K IP
Jair Jurrjens ATL SP 8 2 -1 1 0 1 5 11 0 3.47 1.27 129 166

{6-4-3 Assists to Last Player Picked and Baseball-Reference.}

Kelly Johnson, J.J. Hardy, Conor Jackson: Power Trends?

All 3 were originally drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and made their MLB Debuts in 2005. All have battled injuries and illness, plus each has had a uniform change. Power-wise what can we expect in 2011?

Facts:

Johnson
Year Age PA HR% SO% BB% AB/HR HR/FB
2009 27 346 0.023 0.156 0.093 37.9 0.061
2010 28 671 0.039 0.221 0.118 22.5 0.107
Career 6 Yrs 2573 0.028 0.20 0.11 31.6 0.078
Hardy
2009 26 465 0.024 0.183 0.093 37.6 0.071
2010 27 375 0.016 0.144 0.075 56.7 0.047
Career 6 Yrs 2673 0.03 0.143 0.081 29.8 0.086
Jackson
2009 27 110 0.009 0.146 0.1 99 0.024
2010 28 241 0.008 0.112 0.129 104 0.021
Career 6 Yrs 2095 0.022 0.114 0.105 39 0.055
MLB Avg 6 Yrs 0.027 0.174 0.085 33.4 0.076

 

HR Park Factor (Handed) Home Park Change From To
Johnson (LH) 2009 95 114
Jackson (RH) 2010 102 77
Hardy (RH) 2011 103 126

 

Analysis: Kelly Johnson is the only one to have above league average power since 2008. His 2010 season looks out of place until you consider that he was healthy and got a nice bump Park Factor wise. Park HR factors indicate Johnson went from 5% below league average to 14% above in the switch last season from Atlanta to Arizona. Note a Park Factor of 100 = league average. Hardy’s HR/AB has been all over the place, but Baltimore’s park should be just what Hardy needs, if healthy, going from 3% above league average to 26%. Hardy did show nice power at shortstop back in 2007 and 2008, with 26 and 24 HR. On the other hand, HR have never been a big part of Jackson’s game and it’s a good thing, as Oakland depresses the HR rate to 77% of league average. Only Johnson was above the league slugging average in 2010. Both Hardy and Johnson are starters in 2010, while watch Jackson’s Spring training for signs of renewed strength, though Oakland has both a crowded starting lineup with veterans and a bench crowded with veterans and prospects alike. Making the team may be the best Jackson can do at this point in his career, but watch for signs of the skills he displayed before injuries took their toll. Remember power wasn’t really there to begin with, though he was still quite young before his career was interrupted.

Projections:

Name Team Pos $ AVG$ R$ RBI$ HR$ SB$ Pos$ AVG R RBI HR SB H AB
J.J. Hardy BAL SS 10 1 0 -1 1 -2 11 0.272 66 61 18 2 130 477
Kelly Johnson ARI 2B 20 1 3 1 1 1 11 0.275 96 77 20 12 162 588
Conor Jackson OAK 1B -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 10 0.245 40 37 6 6 75 307

{6-4-3 Assists to Last Player Picked, StatsCorner, and Baseball-Reference}

Stolen Bases Breakdown

Issue: 30 hitters have 70 or more stolen bases over the last 4 seasons. We have the usual suspects stereotyped as mostly one-trick ponies with a couple of multiple category contributors thrown into the mix, but are there some wrinkles and surprises here?

Facts: 2007 to 2010

# R A N K
Player SB PA R HR RBI BA SB BA RBI HR PA
Juan Pierre 202 2294 293 2 147 .288 1 9 22 30 18
Carl Crawford 182 2433 368 53 295 .302 2 4 7 14 13
Jose Reyes 175 2297 333 41 194 .286 3 11 17 16 17
Michael Bourn 172 1930 267 11 108 .263 4 26 27 25 22
Chone Figgins 159 2454 329 10 169 .289 5 6 19 26 12
B.J. Upton 150 2424 339 62 266 .261 6 28 11 11 14
Ichiro Suzuki 148 2895 376 29 199 .332 7 1 16 17 1
Hanley Ramirez 145 2670 443 107 330 .319 8 2 3 1 4
Rajai Davis 142 1438 193 12 128 .283 9 13 24 24 26
Jacoby Ellsbury 136 1510 222 20 130 .291 10 5 22 20 25
Jimmy Rollins 136 2522 363 70 271 .270 11 23 9 10 8
Brian Roberts 132 2398 348 41 208 .288 12 9 15 15 15
Shane Victorino 132 2479 366 54 235 .281 13 19 14 13 10
Willy Taveras 127 1420 191 4 69 .266 14 26 30 29 27
Alexis Rios 107 2647 357 77 323 .281 15 19 5 7 5
Bobby Abreu 101 2717 407 71 382 .282 16 14 2 9 3
Matt Kemp 98 2303 319 82 308 .288 17 7 6 6 16
Brandon Phillips 96 2642 365 89 329 .275 18 21 4 4 6
David Wright 95 2734 403 102 406 .304 19 3 1 2 2
Ian Kinsler 95 2249 372 78 263 .279 20 20 12 5 19
Coco Crisp 93 1543 221 24 153 .269 21 22 21 19 24
Nyjer Morgan 92 1403 175 4 77 .283 22 13 29 28 29
Ryan Theriot 91 2575 318 13 166 .282 23 17 20 23 7
Scott Podsednik 89 1598 190 16 125 .287 24 11 25 22 23
Grady Sizemore 88 2136 307 75 245 .262 25 27 13 8 21
Brett Gardner 86 994 163 8 86 .268 26 24 28 27 30
Jason Bartlett 84 2163 284 24 193 .282 27 16 18 18 20
Chris Young 80 2488 318 96 286 .241 28 30 8 3 9
Johnny Damon 79 2467 376 61 267 .282 29 15 10 12 11
Carlos Gomez 77 1420 182 17 123 .246 30 29 26 21 28

 

Analysis: Juan Pierre is in the 7th in BA. Carl Crawford’s counting categories are as strong as Ellsbury’s are weak, yet Ellsbury’s 5th ranked BA seems a waste in the 9th hole in Fenway in 2011. Chone Figgins is 6th in BA. B.J. Upton’s BA is where I thought it would be, but his rankings in HR, RBI, and PA should easily be in the top 7 or 8. However, they’re not. Ichiro is barely out of the top half in HR and RBI, despite his swing, his home park, and always batting leadoff. No surprise, but I’ve got to shout it anyway–Hanley is a stud! Rollins puts up top 11 or better counting stats, but only 6 of these guys still in The Show are worse in BA. Despite his lost time due to injuries Roberts is in the top half in every category. Victorino is no slouch either. Willy Taveras…Willy Taveras, are you kidding me? Rios’ BA is stronger than I remembered and those counting stats are very good. I’d be in love with Bobby Abreu if he was a little younger or the Angels a lot better; his BA is in the top half and only Wright has more RBI. Despite his woes last season Kemp’s BA is 7th. Matt didn’t play full time until 2008. As a 5 category contributor in the past, his upside looks very good with Donnie Baseball Mattingly. Only Brandon Phillips’ BA limits his  stellar value. Is Sizemore’s BA really that low? Only 3 of the 30 had lower batting averages, but after all that missed playing time he made the list. Gardner indeed is a one trick pony thus far. Bartlett has been a steady contributor, except last season. If you can take the big hit on BA, Chris Young is the Man. Damon still made the list? Yes, and with respectful counting stats. Will the Wizard Maddon chance a few more attempts at The Trop? Maybe…

Projections:

SB Threat AVG R RBI HR SB AB
Carl Crawford 0.292 101 81 16 47 635
Ian Kinsler 0.274 91 68 18 23 525
Ichiro Suzuki 0.306 81 46 9 34 665
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.277 83 51 8 50 559
Brett Gardner 0.269 95 55 7 44 530
Alexis Rios 0.269 77 76 17 28 581
Bobby Abreu 0.266 82 80 16 22 547
Juan Pierre 0.274 81 48 3 51 598
B.J. Upton 0.249 86 64 14 41 570
Rajai Davis 0.277 66 51 6 43 483
Brian Roberts 0.273 83 57 11 27 558
Chone Figgins 0.268 81 43 4 37 590
Grady Sizemore 0.25 75 67 18 20 509
Johnny Damon 0.267 80 59 14 14 512
Coco Crisp 0.262 70 51 11 31 458
Rajai Davis 0.277 66 51 6 43 483
Scott Podsednik 0.282 39 30 4 17 320
Hanley Ramirez 0.306 102 85 25 31 591
David Wright 0.288 92 96 23 21 601
Matt Kemp 0.276 89 88 24 27 612
Jose Reyes 0.282 89 62 13 36 609
Brandon Phillips 0.267 89 79 19 21 635
Michael Bourn 0.261 88 43 5 52 606
Shane Victorino 0.271 87 62 14 28 579
Chris Young 0.244 81 76 21 19 579
Jimmy Rollins 0.248 73 60 14 28 543
Jason Bartlett 0.276 74 55 8 20 517
Nyjer Morgan 0.27 66 35 3 32 496
Ryan Theriot 0.275 68 38 4 18 532
Carlos Gomez 0.252 62 43 7 22 446

 

{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference, Last Player Picked, Marcel.}

 

SPLITS: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez

Issue: Over the last 3 seasons 29 pitchers have won 36 games or more. Only 5 had cumulative ERAs over 4.00: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez. Which ones should we pursue in 2011?

Facts: Arroyo is the only one to have a credible 2010, so he got a 3 year $15 million contract extension, but it was a busy off-season for all 5. Following his first season at Fenway Park Lackey lost 15 pounds, while Vazquez has fled the Bronx for south Florida in 2011. Santana has added a split-finger fastball; Baker had surgery. Let’s go back and look at 2010.

Analysis:

Lackey
Split W L ERA IP HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
1st Half 9 5 4.78 113 10 1.602 5.4 1.48
2nd Half 5 6 3.97 102 8 1.216 7.8 3.3
Santana
1st Half 8 7 3.76 122 15 1.303 7.4 2.78
2nd Half 9 3 4.11 100.2 12 1.341 6.2 1.86
Baker
1st Half 7 8 4.87 109 17 1.312 7.8 5
2nd Half 5 1 3.82 61.1 6 1.402 7.8 2.21
Arroyo
1st Half 9 4 4.04 120.1 13 1.23 4.3 1.41
2nd Half 8 6 3.68 95.1 16 1.038 5.9 3.5
Vazquez
1st Half 7 7 4.45 95 15 1.221 7.6 2.11
2nd Half 3 3 6.64 62.1 17 1.668 5.9 1.52

 

2011 Projections:

Hurler W ERA WHIP K IP
Lackey 12 4.09 1.35 135 181
Santana 12 3.99 1.30 139 174
Baker 11 4.15 1.27 139 169
Arroyo 13 3.98 1.26 122 190
Vazquez 10 4.27 1.27 141 161

 

{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference and Marcel}