Author: TJ Streett

Jagr Signs With Flyers

On the first day of free agency in the NHL Jaromir Jagr has signed a one year deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. Jagr has played well the last three seasons in the KHL averaging .94 points per game in 155 games. The KHL is a slower paced league that plays in larger rinks and the scoring is lower. Generally, Alexander Radulov and Alexei Morozov have been considered the best players in the KHL over the past few seasons and Jagr finds himself in a tier just below those two.

Analysis: To put Jagr’s 2010-11 KHL season into perspective on where his offensive/fantasy game is, he scored 19 goals, 32 assists for 51 points in 49 games, good for eighth in the league. An aging Pavol Demitra made the switch from the NHL to the KHL this past year and amassed sixty-one points, tied for third best in the league. In Demitra’s last two NHL seasons he averaged .71 points per game.

Projection: On a strong Flyers squad even without Richards and Carter it is safe to assume Jagr will produce. If Jagr can stay healthy in the more physical NHL at his age and play in at least seventy-five games we should expect 20 goals, 45 assists and a solid plus/minus rating.

Draft Impact- Kemba Walker

Kemba Walker finds himself in a great situation as a rookie to step in from day one and produce, but just what should we expect?

Analysis: Many experts aren’t sold on Kemba taking his game to the highest level but he will score, just not efficiently. Walker shot just 42% from the field as a junior at UConn last year despite putting up 23.5 points per game. Charlotte is a solid home for Kemba since there aren’t any true scorers on the roster with the expection of the aging Corey Maggette. DJ Augustin isn’t the answer at the point and Kemba will benefit greatly with what will be most likely 26-28 minutes per night. Those minutes translate well for the other parts of Kemba’s game that are fantasy relevant- free throw shooting, steals, assists. As a rookie point guard Walker’s only true fantasy weakness will be his below average shooting percentage. Walker is certainly fantasy relevant in deeper leagues and he just may average more points per game than any other rookie.

Projection: Expect 15 PPG, 4 APG, 3.5 RPG, 1.2 SPG, a free throw percentage over eighty percent and just under one three pointer made per game. His ADP may prevent you from picking him up in a deeper league but he will be a serviceable depth point guard this year.

Draft Impact- Tristan Thompson

Tristan Thompson may not be a household name but he will be a solid depth player in deeper fantasy leagues this coming season.

Analysis: When I watch Tristan Thompson play I see Tyrus Thomas meets a poor man’s Josh Smith. Thompson filled up that stat sheet quite nicely his only year in college- 13 PPG, 8 RPG, 2.4 BPG and .9 SPG. If Thompson can find at least twenty-four minutes per game he will be fantasy relevant from a rebounding, field goal percentage and blocks perspective. It appears playing time may not be that big of an issue considering JJ Hickson is not a true center although he averaged 17 points and 11 boards in his final thirty games last year. It seems like Hickson will be traded at some point this off season. Although Thompson isn’t a polished scorer he will provide enough in the other categories to compensate, however, Thompson’s biggest weakness is the 48% he shot from the stripe with Texas last year. He did get to the line quite often at Texas so that may be the reason one would not draft Thompson in deeper leagues.

Projection: We’re going to need to see more from Thompson in the preseason but for now he remains a deep league sleeper. He’s capable of seven boards and one and a half blocks per game in limited minutes. If his free throw percentage can make it into the sixty percent range in the preseason you may have more incentive to draft the versatile power forward.

Draft Impact- Kyrie Irving

The NBA draft is over and it’s time to start projecting the rookies and their potential fantasy impact for the 2011-12 season.

Analysis: We shouldn’t have high expectations for Kyrie Irving this year especially after John Wall spoiled so many of us with 16.4 PPG, 8.3 APG, 1.8 SPG and 4.6 RPG. Like with so many rookies Irving will be taken in re-draft leagues well before he should. The hype machine will tout Irving as nearly a twenty point per game player and he’s just not capable of that his rookie year especially with the complete lack of talent on the Cavs. We also have to consider Irving’s playing time. Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions are still on the roster and they both averaged around 13 PPG with 6 APG last year. What the Cavs do with these point guards remains to be seen, but Irving is splitting time with one of these guys this coming year. We can expect nearly thirty minutes of playing time from Irving this year but his durability over an eighty-two game season is in question.

Projection: Kyrie Irving isn’t going to light the league on fire or become the NBA’s next elite point guard like the hype machine would have you believe. His 2011-12 season should be 15 PPG, 5-6 APG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG and about one three pointer made per game. Think Mike Conley type numbers not Steph Curry.

Selling High- Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin may have eight wins and has been Colorado’s most consistent starter this year but he is due for a drop in performance.

Analysis: Jhoulys Chacin is a solid four pitch pitcher with a plus slider and a plus curve. Chacin will develop into a respectable middle tier fantasy starter one day but not this year. Chacin’s ERA-FIP is -1.15 this year, fourth among all MLB pitchers. He may be sporting a sub three ERA but his FIP of 3.86 suggests his luck should run out. Chacin’s strand rate is over eighty percent, up seven percent over his career average and well above the league average. One must also be concerned that when his luck runs out his sub 8K/9 rate isn’t what you signed up for. Chacin sported a K/9 rate over nine each of his first two years in the bigs while this year it hovers just below eight. There is a ton to love about this righty but as well all know Coors Field isn’t the best place to pitch. His ERA at home is actually .64 lower than on the road and that will positively even out by season’s end.

Projection: You might as well sell Chacin at his current value unless you don’t mind a drop off in performance. His ERA in his remaining starts should be in the 3.8-4.0 range. Act accordingly.