Author: TJ Streett

Buying Low- Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla may be struggling at the plate this year but it’s not as awful as his stats suggest.

Analysis: Dan Uggla may be batting just .183 on the year but there is reason to hope. Uggla’s .193 BABIP is the lowest in the major leagues and ninety-eight points below his career average. Everything else for Uggla has been relatively the same. His walk and strikeout rates are stable and in line with his career averages and of course he’s still playing some awful defense at second base. This is the perfect time to buy Uggla low. His power numbers and batting average will rise when his BABIP comes back up and so will his fantasy trade value. Outside of Rickie Weeks, Ian Kinsler, Robbie Cano and Danny Espinosa where else are you going to get this kind of power at second base? If you have a lower tier second baseman now is the perfect time to invest in Dan Uggla or even if you still own Uggla as your primary second bagger you need to have some faith.

Projection: As long as Uggla’s BABIP doesn’t continue to absolutely kill him we should expect a return to form from Dan Uggla. He’s good for a .240 plus batting average, about fourteen homers and forty RBI in his remaining games.

Lester To DL, Possible Replacements

Jon Lester is heading to the disabled list with a lower lat strain suffered Tuesday night against the Blue Jays.

Analysis: We do not yet have a clear time table on Lester’s return but one thing is certain- there are huge holes on fantasy squads nationwide as a result of the injury. If you feel like riding a hot streak you may want to pick up Phillie starter Vance Worley. In just eight starts this year Worley is 4-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Worley isn’t this talented, his FIP suggests a regression but his slider is the truth. Worley will make his next start the first game after the All-Star break against the New York Mets. San Diego starter Tim Stauffer is on a hot streak of his own and certainly merits a mention. Stauffer hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last six starts while winning three games in that span. Add in the Petco park factor and he is a pitcher on the rise. The veteran righty is finally putting it all together and his walk rate just keeps dropping(2.09BB/9). Stauffer’s FIP is just a shade over three so he is the real deal this year. Stauffer is scheduled to make his next start Sunday against the Dodgers.

Deep League Help- Cameron Maybin

Cameron Maybin is having his first solid year in the majors and it is largely going unnoticed.

Analysis: Despite missing some time in late May through mid June, Cameron Maybin is outperforming his ADP. The toolsy youngster has twelve stolen bases, thirty-six runs scored and has five home runs. I’m not concerned with his power at all, it is developing and he plays in the black hole known as Petco. He’s a speed dominant outfielder who in time will develop into a 20/20 stud, although batting average will never be a strength. Speaking of the present he certainly is showing signs of improvement at the plate. His strikeout rate is down from his two previous stops in the bigs and his walk rate(9.2%) is at a career high. He’s still having trouble with change ups but it isn’t that concerning when guys like Alfonso Soriano and Drew Stubbs struggle with it as well and are extremely successful ballplayers.

Projection: In time he will become a very good fantasy outfielder but for the time being he remains a solid player in deeper leagues. Expect five bombs, at least ten steals and a .250 batting average in Maybin’s remaining games.

Havlat To San Jose- Fantasy Impact

The Martin Havlat for Dany Heatley trade is a solid move for both clubs but Havlat’s fantasy value gets a huge lift.

Analysis: The 2010-11 season was a return to form for Marty Havlat who had perhaps his most disappointing professional season in 2009 with Minnesota. Havlat scored 22 goals and tallied 40 assists in 78 games last year on a team without any offensive talent with the exception of Mikko Koivu. Fast forward to the 2011-12 season where Havlat finds himself on a line with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau or in the worst case Joe Pavelski and Ryane Clowe. It is certainly a huge boost and will take tons of pressure off of the speedy winger. Health is always a concern for Havlat but if he can stay healthy he should be able to put up top forty forward numbers. Havlat could even pair up with twenty-two year old Logan Couture who put up 56 points as the Calder runner up. Either way you slice it, San Jose has the depth Havlat needs to produce with relative ease.

Projection: Havlat should put up seventy-five to eighty points with at least twenty-five goals in the coming season. Expect his minus ten rating this past season to be at least a plus ten in 2011-12.

Gaborik Helped With Richards Signing

The nine year $60 million deal with the New York Rangers slightly boosts Brad Richards’ fantasy value but the real winner is right winger Marian Gaborik.

Analysis: It feels like Brad Richards has been around forever but he is just thirty-one years old and still in his prime. Richards has been a point per game center for the past four years now and was on pace for his third ninety point season, however, a concussion derailed him. Pairing Richards up with Marian Gaborik on the first line and in the power play will certainly boost his assists total. Outside of a boost in assists Richards’ plus/minus may get a slight boost but expect more top notch fantasy play from Richards in the 2011-12 season. The real winner here is Marian Gaborik who will be playing with the best center of his career(sorry Pavol Demitra/Mikko Koivu). The 2010-11 season for Gaborik was most disappointing, netting just 22 goals in 62 games. When it comes to Gaborik, obviously it all comes down to health and if the winger stays healthy expect a return to his 40 goal form if not more.

Projection: Brad Richards remains a top ten fantasy forward and a top five center while Marian Gaborik projects as a top twenty-five forward due to health concerns but could just as easily put up top ten numbers.