Author: TJ Streett

Time To Drop Justin Williams

Kings’ winger Justin Williams will be out up to four weeks with a dislocated right shoulder.

Analysis: This news means Justin Williams will be out for the remainder of the regular season and thus needs to be dropped from your fantasy team immediately. Williams is the Kings best winger and was having the second best season of his career with 57 points in just 73 games. Obviously in keeper leagues he’s fine to roll with next year but losing nearly a point per game player who is a plus 14 on the year with over 200 shots on goal hurts and hurts bad. There aren’t too many right wingers widely available in most leagues but there are a few solid options. St. Louis right winger Matt D’Agostini has four goals and five assists in his last six games and is a plus seven in that stretch. D’Agostini is your clear choice for plus/minus and for assists. Nashville’s Martin Erat has five goals and six assists with 28 shots on goal in his last nine games. If you’re in the market for some penalty minutes then Edmonton’s Ryan Jones just may fit the bill. Jones has amassed 13 penalty minutes in his last six games with a very respectable 15 shots on goal in that span. The loss of Justin Williams hurts but there are some right wingers playing very well on the market.

Alex Ovechkin Out With Undisclosed Injury

Alex Ovechkin is out seven to ten days with an undisclosed injury.

Analysis: Caps coach Bruce Boudreau has stated Ovechkin has been playing with this injury for months. While I do not believe the injury to be serious at all, it’s probably just cumulative fatigue and soreness associated with the grueling schedule and physicality of the NHL. The Caps goal is the Stanley Cup and it has been since day one and it can be evidenced by the defensive nature of Washington’s play much to the detriment of Ovechkin’s numbers this year. This is an extremely wise decision on Washington’s part but it really has to sting your fantasy squad. Seven to ten days puts Ovechkin out for four to five out of the Caps remaining nine games. Also, be aware of the possibility that he could sit until some time in early April when he is completely fresh as the Caps last game is April 9th at Florida.

Projection: You cannot drop Ovechkin, that’s fairly obvious. But you can drop a bench player in you’re in need of a left winger. If Andy McDonald of the Blues is available in your league he is a must pick up.  If he isn’t available, Vinny Prospal of the Rangers is still playing extremely well.

The Very Overrated Austin Jackson

We all know how inflated Austin  Jackson’s batting average was last year but his lack of plate discipline should really concern you.

Analysis: Austin Jackson’s league leading .396 BABIP was the only reason he flirted with hitting .300 last year. In reality, Jackson is a .280-.285 hitter when considering the facts. Jackson’s BABIP will take at least a ten point hit in 2011, .396 is just unsustainable. Jackson’s 27.5% strikeout rate is cause for concern as well and looks like it’s here to stay. His Double A and Triple A K-rates averaged about 23% and he was hitting for more power. Coming in to last year there were some scouts talking about his power potential and how a 10-12 home run year was realistic. His home run total last year was 4 and his ISO was .107, to put that into perspective that’s Orlando Husdon and Starlin Castro’s ISO range. The most telling stat has to be Jackson’s .28 BB/K line which was sixth worst in MLB last year. It’s fine to have a leadoff hitter without power but one that strikes out like a power hitter and cannot draw a walk is very concerning, especially to stolen base and run totals.

Projection: Jackson is good for what he did last year minus a few batting average points and some runs. However, guys like Jose Tabata, Cameron Maybin and Dexter Fowler ALL have the potential to put up similar numbers and you can get them many rounds later in your fantasy draft.

Patrick Patterson- Deep League Help

Houston power forward Patrick Patterson may only be owned in 1% of fantasy leagues nationwide but his fantasy lines recently suggest otherwise.

Analysis: Patrick Patterson has averaged 15 points with 11 boards in his last two games as well as averaging 30 minutes per game over his last five contests. To put it simply, Patterson is evolving into a double-double big man since his minutes have essentially doubled with the injury to Luis Scola. He is shooting fifty-five percent from the floor on the year and is averaging over a block and a steal per game over his last seven games. He doesn’t get to the stripe enough to be a factor there and he only hurts you in assists and threes but from a power forward, who cares? Yes, Luis Scola will return soon, however, Patterson is playing so well the Rockets cannot afford not to play the hot hand. Houston stands two games back of Memphis in the loss column for the eight seed in the west and giving Patterson at least twenty minutes a game down the stretch seems to be in order.

Projection: Even with 22-24 minutes a game Patterson is good for 7 boards, a block, a steal and a great field goal percentage- exactly what a lot of fantasy squads in deeper leagues need.

Ben Gordon Isn’t Getting It Done

Ben Gordon has been relegated to coming off of the bench for the Pistons the last few games and his performance has been the same as when he was starting- completely disappointing.

Analysis: Fantasy owners love Ben Gordon for three reasons- threes, points and free throw percentage. At this moment he’s only a one category player with his threes. Gordon is averaging just 8 PPG with just two free throw attemtps in his last five contests. He’s also only averaging 19 minutes on the floor per game in that span and with the lack of talent in Detroit it has become impossible for him to get off like he used to with the Bulls a few years ago. The only thing he’s fantasy relevant with is the three ball. He’s buried double digit threes in three of his last four games and it appears his long range shooting is the only thing he has left to offer fantasy owners. You just cannot have shooting guards on your fantasy squad that cannot crack 10 PPG or cannot get to the stripe with frequency.

Projection: It’s time to dump Gordon as he shows no signs of multi category success the rest of the season. Consider Denver’s J.R. Smith if you are looking for a shooting guard getting some minutes who can contribute in threes and points.