Author: TJ Streett

Sticking With Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo has been one of the most heavily dropped fantasy starters over the past week.

Analysis: It isn’t without reason that Gallardo’s stock is falling. He’s allowed four or more earned runs over his last three starts and his ERA thus far sits at 5.25. His poor performances have left him available in 10-30% of leagues nationwide. But there are some positives to take away from this.

Gallardo’s strand rate is 8% above his career average this year. His BABIP against is .023 points above his career average and his HR/FB rate is 5% above his career average. So… what can we take away? Well, Gallardo’s xFIP is a solid 3.71. He may not be dominant but he is serviceable and has been a bit unlucky this year. His numbers will improve and he should not be dropped from leagues. Yes, his velocity is down a bit and with it the strikeouts. He isn’t an ace right now but he will produce going forward. His ERA minus FIP is 1.04 which is 11th in baseball this year— translation- Gallardo has been the 11th least lucky pitcher in baseball in 2013.

Under The Radar- Juan Pierre

Juan Pierre is the 50th rated roto outfielder this year yet somehow he remains under the radar.

Analysis: Pierre is 4th in all of baseball with 16 stolen bases. To this point in the season he has outperformed Ben Zobrist, Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera and Ben Revere in roto leagues. Considering Everth Cabrera who leads major league baseball in steals may get suspended in the near future… it may be time to look for steals on the wire now. Pierre is available in 70-90% of fantasy leagues despite a recent hot streak. He’s put together 7 hits, 3 steals and 5 runs in his last four games. His BABIP is .050 points below his career average this year despite solid contact rates which means he should be hitting in the .275 plus range going forward.

Pierre does hurt you in the home run and RBI departments but from a roto perspective he is still getting the job done better than a lot of the bigger names out there. He’s on pace to steal over 40 bags this year and he could wind up on a contender come trade deadline time.

Buying Low- Adam Lind

Adam Lind’s bat is heating up as injuries abound at all positions in baseball right now.

Analysis: Adam Lind amassed 8 hits, 1 HR and 3 runs in three games against the San Diego Padres over the weekend. Two of those games were extra inning games but he has his batting average up to .323 now which is all that really matters. His strikeout rate this year is the lowest of his career. Lind is also walking at a career high 13.5% clip. His .410 OBP is 8th in baseball among batters with at least 150 plate appearances. He is a power bat but he only has 5 bombs so far in 44 games this year which isn’t that bad for a guy with first base and DH position eligibility.

At the moment Lind is available in 70-90% of fantasy leagues. He is just a few years removed from a 35 home run campaign and has hit at least 23 home runs in three of the last four years. We must acknowledge that his high BABIP has inflated his batting average and that he should hit in the .270-280 range going forward but his power should be on its way.

Passing On Jason Hammel

Jason Hammel has been one of the most picked up starters on the wire over the last week despite his lack of fantasy value.

Analysis: Jason Hammel is sporting a 5.43 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. His xFIP is north of 4.60 and his strand rate this year is on par with his career average. There is not one stat or metric that could make anyone believe he will get significantly better. However, he does have 7 wins this year which is the 6th most in baseball. Wins are unreliable and hard to project as well as run support in any given game. Despite that Hammel is on pace to win 20 games this year so it should not come as a surprise that awful fantasy owners are picking him up.

Hammel is available in 30-70% of fantasy leagues which is shocking considering his poor performances this year. He was not reliable in Colorado and he is not reliable now. He’s actually the 101st rated fantasy starter this year. His 1.51 WHIP is 95th in baseball and his 5.43 ERA is 97th and 0.6 higher than Ubaldo Jimenez and his 4.83 ERA.

Ervin Being Ervin

Ervin Santana has burned more than a few fantasy owners over the years but is he still worth the risk?

Analysis: Ervin Santana is one of the more heavily dropped starters these days. He’s allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts and fantasy owners are seeking shelter from the erratic ratio bombing righty. However, he still may be of use.

Santana’s ERA is still south of 3.50 through 70.1 innings. His xFIP is 3.54 and his walk rate is the lowest of his career. His strikeout rate is his highest since 2008 and his HR/FB rate is well above his career average. Even Ervin’s velocity is fine but we must consider that his two most recent starts have come against good offensive teams(Cards/Angels) which does play a part in the nine earned runs over those starts.

Can Ervin Santana be trusted? Not really, but he is sporting a solid ERA and a 1.09 WHIP which is 24th best in baseball. Santana is available in 15-40% of leagues and that number is growing. We may know a bit more after Ervin’s performance Sunday in Texas but probably not. Keep in mind that the Rangers can mash and that Yu Darvish is pitching Sunday as well.